College Favorites Cashing
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
MARQUEE COLLEGE BOWL GAMES
GOING TO THE FAVORITES
Favorite bettors have been having a field day in recent college football marquee games. In fact, if you're only talking about the bowls involving major conference teams since the morning of January 1st, favorites are UNDEFEATED!
Straight up 9-0
One of the non-covers was Texas Tech over Northwestern, when a pick six allowed the dog to sneak through the back door in the fourth quarter. The other was TCU over Wisconsin, where a failed two-point conversion attempt prevented over time.
*Texas Tech (-8) beat Northwestern 45-38
*Florida (-7) beat Penn State 37-24
*Alabama (-9) beat Michigan State 49-7
*Mississippi State (-5) beat Michigan 52-14
*TCU (-3) beat Wisconsin 21-19
*Oklahoma (-17) beat Connecticut 48-20
*Stanford (-3.5) beat Virginia Tech 40-12
*Ohio State (-3) beat Arkansas 31-26
*LSU (-2) beat Texas A&M 41-24
Not a great time to be betting dogs on the moneyline, or plus the points. As a dog player, this has obviously been very frustrating for me. But, I've lessened the blow by recognizing that free points in these games aren't as plentiful as they used to be. Note how far the market has missed some of these games by:
33 points with Alabama
33 points with Mississippi State
24.5 points with Stanford
15 points with LSU
11 points with Oklahoma
That's not too abnormal in college bowls or playoff games. Dogs often get there in tight fashion, while favorites may run away and hide. Still, that's a little extreme for what was supposed to be an evenly matched set of games.
Note also how many big first halves the favorites had:
*Texas Tech led 24-6
*Alabama led 28-0
*Mississippi State led 31-14
*Oklahoma led 20-10
*Ohio State led 28-10
*LSU led 28-17
Those look like final scores in some cases, but they represented just 30 minutes of action.
I point this out to you today because favorites have a good recent history in BCS Championship games. Alabama, Florida, and LSU have covered the last three years as chalk. Two of those three weren't very much in doubt in the second half. Usually the best teams have a way of playing their best when it matters most.
Does that mean favored Auburn is likely to run away and hide Monday Night? I'm not saying that. Oregon may be the better team. Maybe the Ducks will run away and hide! My point today is that this isn't a game where you can just knee-jerk to the underdog and assume you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT. There have been bowl campaigns where that worked out great. This year isn't one of them. The elite teams have explosive scoring ability. Las Vegas oddsmakers haven't yet figured out how to capture that in a number.
Dogs have had one great day, where they went 4-0 straight up and ATS on New Year's Eve (South Florida, Notre Dame, Central Florida, and Florida State). Otherwise, it's mostly been the year of the talented favorite. See if you can figure out which of tonight's talented teams is the 'real' favorite...and don't be afraid to bet them in the first half as well as the full game.
If you'd like some help, TONY SALINAS has seen every championship football game played going back many decades. I know exactly what it takes to win a game like this. I know how to take advantage of how oddsmakers misprice the biggest game (seems they're way off every year!) You can purchase my HIGH ROLLER BLOWOUT (and bonus basketball) right here at the website with your credit card. Or, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
We've got a great week of basketball coming up. I'll start talking more about college hoops in the coming days now that college football has reaches its grand finale. Whether it's football or basketball, TONY SALINAS will always make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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