Tony: Ranking NFL Public Preferences

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


My hallmark strategy in all sports over the years is to fade the public. If they hate a team, I love them. If they love a team, I hate them. Over the long haul, fading the public is going to make sure you GET THE BEST OF IT because you're always taking advantage of the free points that go into the number to balance out public sentiment.

I thought it would be a good exercise this year to rank the NFL playoff teams from 1-12 in terms of public sentiment. Who does the public love to bet on? Who won't they touch with a 10-foot pole?

Here's my take:

1...New England
3...New Orleans
6...Green Bay
7...NY Jets
11...Kansas City

I should say at first that there's not much that separates the teams at the top of the list...and that the two at the bottom are hated much worse than the numbers 11 and 12 might suggest. The public thinks Seattle has no shot in the playoffs, and will likely get killed in their first game. They don't want anything to do with an inexperienced team like Kansas City either, who hasn't been in a big TV game all year. The public will bet on teams they see win on TV. Kansas City hasn't played anybody.

So, it's more like 25 and 26 for those team in terms of the whole league, but only 12 make the playoffs and they're at the bottom.

Who do you see at the top? Super Bowl teams with great quarterbacks. New England has a dynasty with Tom Brady. Indianapolis and Peyton Manning are bet just like they've been a dynasty even though they have only one Super Bowl win. New Orleans won last year, and has been seen as a 'hot' team lately. Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl two years ago.

Just below the top four we have teams who are respected as Super Bowl contenders. The public loves watching Michael Vick sprint all over the field. He's suddenly become a popular betting choice. Maybe Green Bay should be above Philly. That's about a toss-up to me in terms of public sentiment right now. The Jets would have been higher if I did this list back in September. They lost so badly at New England in a big TV game that the public has fallen out of love with them. And, the Jets will face a more popular betting team next week if they upset the Colts this week.

It's weird that Atlanta is so far down as a #1 seed. Usually great records and public affection go hand-in-hand. The Falcons haven't earned that yet. Their quarterback is too young...and they're too new to the scene. Chicago can make a jump in a hurry because the public WANTS to love the Bears. They don't trust Jay Cutler yet, but they're warming up to him. Should both the Bears and Falcons win after their byes, I think the public would prefer the Bears because so many remember the glory days. Atlanta doesn't have any glory days!

How am I going to take advantage of my read on the public? Sorry, I just can't go into specific details here in my web articles. I have picks to protect for my paying clients. It's possible that I'll be fading all four of the Wildcard favorites who are higher up on the ladder. But, we have some small spreads on the board this year...suggesting the free points aren't as plentiful as in the past. I talked about that during the regular season. Oddsmakers are being stingier with their free points because they want to fade the public themselves. TONY SALINAS knows how to zig when the market is zagging! You know that.

You can purchase my Wildcard plays here at the website. Game day selections go up a few hours before kickoff. Or, sign up for the rest of football and get all the playoffs and the rest of the colleges for a great price. Be sure to check out my basketball too. Customers always get the exact same basketball plays I'm betting the biggest myself. Call the office at 1-888-536-8880 if you want to set up a two-sport combination package.

I've been on a great run in the college bowls. I expect to do even better in the NFL playoffs. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!

'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.


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