First Week Bowl Illusions

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


It always cracks me up listening to sports bettors sit in sportsbooks and act like they're experts. Favorites and Overs cashed tickets in the first few bowl games...and suddenly that was the way to go. 'Gotta bet favorites and Overs. That's how you make money.'

Good luck with that over a full bowl season, or a series of years in the bowls.

The public always loses their money eventually because they're too stupid to handicap. They look for trends in football just like they do in roulette or blackjack. Football isn't roulette. And, the world is a lot more complicated than a ball spinning around a wheel.

Yes, we saw some high scoring games last week. Let me ask you this. How many good defenses were on the field in the first week of bowl games? How many teams:

*Had good national rankings on defense
*That came against above average schedules

The answer is ZERO!

There were some teams who had good defensive stats against bad schedules. There really weren't ANY good defenses on the field like you'll see in the coming days, when teams like Nebraska, Miami of Florida, and several SEC schools see action.

Of course we saw high scoring wide open games with bad defenses from lesser conferences in the mix. Coaches opened up their playbooks because it was a bowl...and bad defenses couldn't do anything about it. That tells you nothing about what's coming up this week.

*We'll finally get to see teams from major conferences. Only Louisville from the Big East has played so far, and the Big East is barely a major conference any more. Georgia Tech of the ACC plays Monday. The SEC, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 10 will be on their heels.

*We'll finally get to see DEFENSES. Sure, we'll have a few more circus games that end up in the 60's or 70's. Things will be much more 'normal'this week than last week.

*We'll finally get to see games where BOTH teams show up at peak motivation. I haven't been impressed with the enthusiasm from several different teams so far. Games are much different when both teams show up compared to just one.

Do you seriously want to bet a lot of Favorites and Overs this week because they started 10-3-1 in the first week? you think it's going to be 20-6-2 after the next seven games? You think Favorites and Overs will cover 75% of the time from now through Auburn/Oregon?

You're going to bet Overs in games with good defenses because Hawaii/Tulsa was so high scoring? You're going to pass on defensive dogs because Fresno State and UTEP couldn't tackle?

Don't be one of those guys who sits back in his chair with a beer and lectures his friends about the pure genius of taking Favorites and Overs in bowl games. You'll look smart every so often. You'll be the toast of the town when Troy beats Ohio 48-21. You'll probably be broke before New Year's though. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next year. Longtime winners don't bet that way. Longtime winners gladly take the free points that are on the board because too many DUMMIES bet that way.

Fate temporarily loaned bad gamblers some fool's gold last week. Don't be a fool. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT this week by playing it smart!

I'll have my HIGH ROLLER bowl selections available each day this week a few hours before kickoff of the earliest game. You can purchase the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website with your credit card. I also have longer term packages available that get you all the bowls through the Auburn-Oregon national championship game, and the NFL through the Super Bowl. Call 1-888-536-8880 if you have any questions. Be sure to ask about basketball when you call. Conference action gets started in college hoops this week all over the country.

All of my biggest bowl releases are still ahead. My BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR, my BOWL DOG OF THE YEAR, my UPSET OF THE YEAR. My OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE YEAR. Sign up now so you can GET THE BEST OF IT EVERY DAY WITH TONY SALINAS!

'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'is an ongoing series presented by and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.


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