Lakers Overpriced

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


I've warned you a lot about this over the years, and we're seeing a great example of it right now. The Los Angeles Lakers are defending NBA champions, and are definitely one of the favorites to win the trophy again this season. But, they can't play like champions EVERY SINGLE NIGHT! Las Vegas oddsmakers price them like it's a team of MVP's who can name the score 82 straight times before the playoffs even get here.

If you're smart, you'll try to find ways to take advantage of this. It hasn't been hard lately. The Lakers are in a very bad cover stretch.

  • Back on November 23rd, they failed to cover as 8-point favorites in a 7-point win at home over Chicago. That's actually fairly common for the top teams. Oddsmakers shade the lines a point or two against them. They play their typical game and fall just short.
  • That was followed by a 6-point loss on the road at fired up Utah. The Lakers were only 1-point favorites, so it's not like this was a disastrous showing. But, the Lakers get the best from opponents whenever they take the floor...particularly when they face GOOD opponents on the ROAD! The arena is packed, and everyone wants to see their local heroes take down Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
  • A big surprise awaited though, as Indiana went to LA and beat the Lakers outright 95-92 as 9-point underdogs. Many handicappers and bettors figured the Lakers would bounce back off the loss to Utah. Instead, they got bounced.
  • A road trip to Memphis and Houston saw two more losses, as the Lakers suddenly found themselves in a slump! Home crowds went home very happy in those cities in what were confidence building wins for the Grizzlies and Rockets. For the Lakers, this was a five-game non-cover streak that saw a stunning 1-4 record even though they were favored in ever game.
  • LA headed home and got to face the horrible Sacramento Kings. They took out their frustrations with a blowout.
  • But, when Washington came to town a few days later, the Lakers blew a big early lead and couldn't cover a 13-point spread in a 115-108 victory.

See what I mean about HAVING to play great to cover spreads?

Starting Friday in Chicago, the Lakers will play six games in ten days in other time zones. They visit Chicago, New Jersey, Washington, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Toronto. That's not exactly a murderer's row in terms of playoff caliber teams. But, you know every game is going to be a sellout...because it's the only time the Lakers come to town all season for teams in the Eastern Conference.

I'll be watching this stretch very closely, and trying to pick my spots with anti-Lakers action. Fading big name teams typically allows you to GET THE BEST OF IT. Did you realize that the Lakers were 33-46-3 last year against the Vegas spread? You would have 58% winners last year fading the Lakers in every regular season game in the 2009-10 season.

Maybe it won't work out to be that great this year. Or, maybe it will!

Oh, the team the Lakers beat in the finals last year...Boston...went 33-47-2 vs. the number in the '09-10 campaign. Basically an identical record. LeBron James and the Cavs were 38-43-1 ATS long before "The Decision" broke Cleveland's hearts.

It doesn't always work out this well. But, it's impossible to win every game. You're trying to GET THE BEST OF IT...and fading big name teams in ALL sports helps you do put yourself on the right side of the equation.

I can assure you we'll be doing that these next few days in pro and college basketball. I'm off to a great start already, and I'm really looking forward to all the big games on the board tonight, tomorrow, and all weekend. You purchase game day releases right here at the website with your credit card. Longer term packages are also available. If you have any questions, or if you want to add basketball to an existing football package, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.

My clients always get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself. If you're not a HIGH ROLLER right now, you will be in no time at all if you're GETTIGN THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!


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