NFL Games Flying Over
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
TOUGH SLEDDING FOR UNDERS BETTORS THIS YEAR IN PRO FOOTBALL
Over my career as a football bettor, my totals bets have tended to shade Under rather than Over. That's because the public loves betting Overs...which means you get FREE POINTS by going the other way.
Unfortunately, this strategy is not working out very well this year in the NFL. You probably know we've had a lot more Overs than Unders. This past Thursday's Thanksgiving results provided a great example:
- New England beat Detroit 45-24, creating a 69-point game that went over the Vegas total by 19 points. The game was on Over pace the whole way...then exploded in the fourth quarter.
- New Orleans beat Dallas 30-27, clearing the Over/Under mark by more than a touchdown. En early scoring flurry put Under bettors in a funk. Both quarterbacks ended up passing for more than 300 yards.
- Cincinnati and the NY Jets stayed Under in the only cold weather game. Your best shot for Unders right now is when weather is a factor.
What's going on?
- Offenses have gotten so efficient at moving the chains that it's very difficult for defenses to control the flow of a game. Now...BAD quarterbacks and YOUNG quarterbacks will have trouble. But, a lot of teams have guys who can get the job done. It may take only one of them being on the field to take a game Over, as you saw with Tom Brady on Turkey Day.
- The league's efforts to cut down on quarterback injuries have been working. That means you get fewer backup quarterbacks on the field. In fact, you mostly get backups when the starters have been bad! That just replaces an Under guy with a motivated backup who might make some plays and take a game Over.
- Referees aren't calling holding the way they used to.
- We haven't had many weather games yet. Put modern offenses in good conditions and let them hold...and you're going to see some touchdowns!
I think the league LOVES all the hubbub around fantasy football. They're sure not discouraging big stats and big scoring.
That means it's not a great time to be an NFL Under bettor.
I've made some important adjustments to how I handicap pro totals. It's still not my mature to load up on the same plays the public is betting. But, I'm trying much more to pick my spots with Unders.
- I'll bet Unders in weather games up North and in the Midwest.
- I'll bet Unders with two mediocre or worse quarterbacks.
- I'll bet Unders with teams that have elite defenses and quarterbacks who know how to run clock with a lead.
What will it take for me to bet an Over? I'm more likely to do that with a low total than a high total. If I see something in the 40-44 range with quarterbacks I believe are underrated. It's not my nature to go Over a 48, or a 50 because that's been such a bad strategy over the years. Maybe the sport has changed so much now that I need to rethink things a bit.
For now, I think handicappers like YOU need to make some lists each week in the NFL to help you focus on scoring conditions. Here's how I have this weekend's games categorized...
COLD WEATHER SITES (so, check the weather for defensive help)
Pittsburgh at Buffalo
Jacksonville at NY Giants
Carolina at Cleveland
Philadelphia at Chicago
St. Louis at Denver
TWEENER SITES (scoring is generally favored except for bad weather)
Minnesota at Washington
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
GOOD SCORING CONDITIONS
Tennessee at Houston
Green Bay at Atlanta
Miami at Oakland
Kansas City at Seattle
San Diego at Indianapolis
San Francisco at Arizona
Three dome teams played Thursday...so the cold weather sites are a bit more prominent Sunday.
Check the weather forecasts in the first two groups...evaluate the quarterbacks in all games...and see if that doesn't help you GET THE BIEST OF IT with NFL totals this week.
My top plays Sunday and Monday are going to be team sides. My clients always get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself. You can purchase these HIGH ROLLER games a few hours before kickoff on game day. Or sign up for the rest of the season at a discounted rate. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
Things go in cycles in football...and really ALL sports betting. Make sure you keep a sharp eye out for changes in the way the game is played. That will guarantee you'll keep GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
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