Tony: Public Will Warp Holiday Lines

With handicapping legend Tony Salinas


You can count on these things every single year during Thanksgiving weekend:

  • The public will come out of the woodwork to bet the big TV games. They're home from work. They want some entertainment. They're going to watch the TV games and bet them, even if bad teams with ugly records are on the field.
  • The public will bet FAVORITES almost exclusively because that's who the public bets on. They want to root for the better team. Casual fans who are only half-heartedly following football always think lines are too low anyway because they only remember the blowouts from the scoreboard shows. And, nothing makes a square feel dumber than to bet on an underdog and watch them get blown out. You never feel like an idiot if you lose with a favorite. It's the TEAM'S fault, not yours.
  • The Vegas lines are all a point or two too high (at least) because of the one-side action on favorites. At least in the TV games. The public won't be betting Buffalo/Akron or Tulane/ like that. In the BIG games, the favorites will be priced too high as a general rule.

So, as I say every year, you'll be GETTING THE BEST OF IT over the long haul by betting underdogs. That doesn't mean underdogs will cover every game. And, it doesn't mean they'll only lose heartbreakers. Some underdogs will lose by monster margins. That's part of the equation. Detroit's been blown out quite a bit in recent years in that early game. That doesn't mean New England will kill them this year. I'm talking about A LARGE SAMPLING of ALL games the public bets.

Why does it matter to you if you lose by a few points, or by 30? It's a loss. The funny thing about the public is that they'd rather go 4-6 winning four big blowouts than 6-4 sweating underdogs.

I want YOU to GET THE BEST OF IT this weekend. So, don't bet like your Uncle Harry!

Among the dog categories you should be considering from Thursday through Monday:

  • VALUE underdogs...those who have consistently been underpriced all season long because oddsmakers haven't realized their true level of play. There are a few pro and college dogs who fit this to a T.
  • RIVALRY underdogs...because a lot more than half of rivalry underdogs get sky high for the team they hate the most. Some will point to Stanford over Cal last week as an example that goes the other way. It's true. California was flat off the near-miss upset of Oregon, and didn't have anything left in the tank. Is that the norm? Of course not. Over 15-20 rivalry games (college or pro), or 100-150 over years...the underdogs are going to cover more than 52.5% of the time. That's been documented since the beginning of time.
  • DEFENSIVE underdogs...because a good defense always gives you a chance to cover. That's even more true in late November weather, though global warming may start taking that away. Underdogs cover spreads by forcing field goals rather than allowing touchdowns, and by taking the ball away at opportune times. Put a great defense in a rivalry game and you're really on to something.
  • ANY underdog facing a FLAT FAVORITE...because this is the single biggest cause of outright upsets over the Thanksgiving weekend. The favorite is looking ahead to a conference championship game the next week...or has already clinched a championship...or has already clinched a quality bowl invitation with a good record. More than half of these teams will play their average game or worse...which is enough to get the money because favorites are typically priced on their best game.

I can't tell you here who I'll be betting on. That information is for my customers. You can become a customer and play the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself by signing up here at the website. I have a package for the whole Thanksgiving Weekend available. You can also sign up for HIGH ROLLER releases for the rest of the season and start things off with the Turkey Day Treats. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.

Don't worry about what Uncle Harry's doing. If he wins Thursday, he'll just lose Friday. If he wins Friday, he'll just lose it back Saturday and Sunday. Over time, laying numbers that are too high will make you a loser. Play smart. Stop taking the worst of it like the guy passing you the sweet potatoes. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!


Today’s Hot Plays