Weather Leads to Unders
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
AS I WARNED YOU ABOUT RECENTLY, COOLER TEMPS, WIND, LED TO UNDERS
This past weekend was the first "weather" weekend we've had this year in college and pro football. I warned you several days earlier that we had reached the point in the calendar where weather was going to start influencing totals.
Saturday, we saw sustained winds in the 10-15 mph range in several parts of the country, with temperatures dipping into the 50's or low 60's in many places. Sunday was more of the same, with winds particularly wreaking havoc in the Packers/Jets game.
Using the standard website weather forecasts for legal sports bettors that I'm sure many of you already know about, take a look at what happened in all the games where wind was forecast to be 9 mph or higher (which disrupts the passing game and field goal attempts...and can encourage some offenses to run clock when they're going into the wind in a way that makes the game faster), and temperatures were in the mid 60's or lower. I've listed the games in rotation order:
Michigan State/Iowa: Under
Northwestern/Indiana: Under (are you noticing a pattern yet?!)
Clemson/Boston College: Under
Wake Forest/Maryland: Over
Northern Illinois/Western Michigan: Under
Ball State/Kent State: Over
San Diego State/Wyoming: Over
Tulsa/Notre Dame Under
Bowling Green/Central Michigan: Under
Miami of Ohio/Buffalo: Under
Toledo/E. Michigan: Under
Washington State/Arizona State: Under
That's 20 games where winds of 9 mph or more were forecast (typically more like 12-15) and game temperatures had cooled down from earlier in the season. Fully 14 of the 20 went Under. Talk about GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
In the pro's, fewer games qualified:
Green Bay/NY Jets: Under
Buffalo/Kansas City: Under
Minnesota/New England: Over with a late TD
Yup...70% in the colleges, and 75% in the pro's playing Unders in games where wind was likely to have an influence.
And, we're not even talking about rain or snow yet!
This is why you should handicap the weather when you're handicapping sports. I emphasize this with you all baseball season. And, every football season when autumn starts drifting toward winter, I bring it up again. Oddsmakers don't adjust for the weather! The general public doesn't pay any attention to it unless there's a blizzard forecast, and they don't bet until the total has already dropped 3-4 points taking away much of the value.
I should also mention that you action-minded players can add even more to your bottom line by looking at first half betting. Most of these games had low scoring first halves too. In fact, Minnesota/New England was only 7-7 at the half before the scoreboard started lighting up later in the game.
Now, I'm not saying that wind KILLS scoring. Sure, it looked that way in Green Bay and the Jets. That was an extreme. Most of the time, it helps slow things down. If the "right" total on a game is 46, maybe it's only 43 with the wind at 9 mph or more. Maybe it's 41 with wind and rain...38 with wind and snow. You'll certainly see some games where teams score points anyway. And, sometimes those goofy conditions will create cheap points that actually add to the total. We're talking about edges over volume here. Over the course of 100 games, or 1,000 games...you're definitely GETTING THE BEST OF IT by shading your action towards Unders when weather is an influence. At the very least, it's crazy to force Over bets hoping you get lucky with goofball points.
Now that you've seen first hand what I'm talking about, PLEASE pay attention to weather forecasts throughout November and December so you can take advantage of oddsmaker ignorance! Maybe the edges won't be 70% in the colleges, and 75% in the pro's. History says they're very likely to be better than 52.5%, which is what you need to hit to make money in Las Vegas.
I'm having another great football season because I know the TIME-PROVEN strategies that beat the number. I've been a HIGH ROLLER longer than many of you have been alive. The fundamentals of gambling are always the same. You can win with me the next few nights in college football if you want to try out the service. We have Rutgers/South Florida tonight on ESPN2, then doubleheaders Thursday and Friday. Game day releases go up a few hours before kickoff. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
Basketball is going nightly as well for my clients. Ask how you can add the NBA to any football package when you call.
Temperatures are dropping...winds are blowing...and we know EXACTLY how to handle it. Make sure you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
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