Handle New NFL QB's With Care
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
MODERN DEFENSES CAN EMBARRASS
RUSTY OR INEXPERIENCED NFL QB'S
In past seasons I used to make a lot of money by fading the public and betting on quarterbacks who were coming off the bench to replace an injured or ineffective starter.
I was typically GETTING THE BEST OF IT because:
*The public always assumed the backup would be horrible. They just loaded up against him figuring a blowout loss was imminent.
*The lines would adjust WAY too many points as a result. A team that should have been a 7-point underdog would be getting +10 or +11. A team that should be +10 was getting +14. Give me free points and I'll take them.
*Opponents wouldn't prepare as seriously as they should. Players would make the same mistake the public was making, underestimating the new man in the pocket.
*The new QB himself was motivated to come in and prove he should be the starter. Guys like this would often have one of their best career games in that replacement spot when nobody was taking them seriously.
You'd get a fired up QB facing a flat defense and a bunch of free points! I wouldn't win every game, but I had a great percentage in these situations for many years. It was like free money!
The past few years though, things have been changing. Among the reasons:
*Defenses are much more complicated than they used to be with disguised blitzing and secondaries that jump routes. It's tough for a QB to come in rusty and put points on the board. You have to score something to cover spreads in the NFL. Too many rusty QB's are failing to get past 10 points.
*Many of the backups now are rookies or second year guys. So, they're much more inexperienced than backups of the past. You don't have as many 'career backups' floating around because it's cheaper to pay a kid to fill that role. There are still some to be sure. But, Colt McCoy is starting in New Orleans Sunday as a rookie. Arizona's starting a rookie who wasn't even all that hyped coming out of school. Asking rookies to thrive vs. aggressive modern defenses is a dicey proposition at best.
*Opponents have gotten very savvy about running out the clock with a lead. Garbage time doesn't have as many plays as it used to because teams in front just erase the clock. Green QB's have enough trouble scoring when they have the ball. They can't score when they don't have the ball! If a game is 27-10 in the fourth quarter, it's more likely to end 27-10 these days...taking away most of your late bailout potential.
*Oddsmakers have gotten a little sharper about line adjustments too. Quality backups are given respect. The kid quarterbacks aren't...but they're having so much trouble scoring that it doesn't matter.
For me to bet on a backup QB these days, it takes:
*Established evidence that he can find the end zone.
*An opposing defense that isn't very good.
*An opponent who's likely to be flat.
*A HUGE pointspread that's just out of whack with the nature of parity.
This will happen sometimes (and may in fact trigger a play for me on Sunday). But, the days of getting rich by just fading the public across the board with this particular strategy are over. You have to pick your spots.
And, I'm writing this up for you today because A LOT of backup QB's will be on the field!
If you're uncertain about who to bet Sunday and Monday in the NFL, sign up with a HIGH ROLLER who studies the sport more closely than any other handicapper. You can purchase the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself here at the website. Game day releases always go up a few hours before kickoff. Seasonal packages are available as well.
If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
Maybe you're a rookie sports bettor, or a second year guy who's discovered winning is a lot more difficult than you had imagined. It's a tough world out there. Stop taking sacks or throwing interceptions. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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