Don?t Assume Bounce Backs
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
COLLEGE POWERS OFTEN TAKE A WEEK TO RECOVER FROM A BIG LOSS
If you're thinking about jumping all over Ohio State and Nebraska this week because they lost high profile TV games last week and are going go be FURIOUS when they take the field...you just might be making a classic public mistake!
Now, the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers may well play great this week against Purdue and Oklahoma State respectively. Just be aware that:
- Alabama didn't cover at home against Ole Miss the week after it lost to South Carolina. Many in the public expected a big bounce back performance from a superpower hoping to make a statement. They didn't get it. Alabama was still down in the dumps after losing their #1 ranking, and barely scored the spread.
- Stanford didn't cover at home against USC the week after it lost the de-facto Pac 10 championship game on the road at Oregon. Stanford had jumped to a big early lead in Eugene, only to get steamrollered in the second by the Ducks. They were still down in the dumps the next week...and barely got by a Southern Cal team that had been struggling.
There's often a hangover effect from a high profile loss that takes a while to get over. Most great teams do eventually get over it. But, you can't count on it to happen right away. In fact, studies show that you GET THE BEST OF IT by going AGAINST a high profile team the week after a big loss.
Why is there value fading a team that should be in a bounce back spot?
- Big name teams still get respect in the line, and are generally pricey favorites.
- The public loves betting the bounce back, and drives the line up even higher.
- The teams themselves have lost a little confidence, and known they've probably blown their chance to win a national championship. How do you get sky high for a game when your dreams have just been shattered?
That's a lethal combination...depressed and overpriced!
As I've mentioned many times in these web articles, we're looking for strategies that get the money more often than not. Nothing wins all the time. Some good teams do bounce back. Maybe Ohio State wins 52-0 this week. Maybe Nebraska's quarterback busts some more long runs because he's facing a softer defense that he faced with the Horns. Over the course of a full season of these types of situations...or several seasons...you're going to be GETTING THE BEST OF IT by fading the big name public team that's still feeling a hangover.
Keep that in mind as you handicap Saturday's card...and the rest of a 2010 campaign that may see several more big upsets before it's all said and done.
College football is a game of emotion. Big losses hit college kids pretty hard, especially when they occur on national television right at a time when they had been riding high. Smart Vegas bettors can exploit this with quality opposing underdogs, particularly teams that have some emotional edges of their own in play.
Purdue and Oklahoma State may or may not be part of my final card on Saturday. I only release to clients the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself. Odds are, with so many games on the board, we'll be stepping out elsewhere. I just wanted to warn you about a potential mistake too many in the pubic make on a week-in and week-out basis.
My top college and pro HIGH ROLLER plays can be purchased online. Make a few clicks here at the website and take care of business. Game day releases go up a few hours before kickoff. Full season packages are also available. You can't stand next to me in line at the Wynn or Caesar's Palace. This is the next best thing!
If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
Stop taking the worst of it by making "public" mistakes. Start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
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