Playoff Teams Struggling on Road
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
With handicapping legend Tony Salinas
LAST YEAR'S PLAYOFF TEAMS
STRUGGLING ON ROAD THIS SEASON
I was analyzing the problems that many 'public' teams were having so far this season in terms of covering pointspreads. I realized as I was running through the numbers that something fairly obvious was happening. Last year's playoff teams have largely been struggling on the road this season.
This is important because:
*The public LOVES betting on recent playoff teams. They assume those are the best teams in the league. It takes them forever to realize that somebody has fallen off the pace after playing well the year before.
*Home teams really get up for big name opponents that come to town, giving smart gamblers the chance to GET THE BEST OF IT with a motivated host against a possibly flat opponent.
Now, not ALL playoff teams from last year are struggling. The Jets won and covered at Miami and Buffalo for example. But, across the full spectrum of playoff teams, it's a very clear trend. Let's take a look.
First, here's what the NFC playoff teams from last year have done on the road this year. Most of the non-covers were outright losses. If a team won the game but didn't cover, I make a special note of that.
2009 NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR
New Orleans: Lost ATS at San Francisco, Lost at Arizona
Minnesota: Pushed at New Orleans, Lost at NY Jets
Arizona: Won at St. Louis, Lost at Atlanta, Lost at San Diego
Dallas: Lost at Washington, Won at Houston,
Philadelphia: Lost ATS at Detroit, Won at Jacksonville, Won at San Francisco
Green Bay: Won at Philadelphia, Lost at Chicago, Lost at Washington
That adds up to 5-9-1 for the NFC, with only Philadelphia posting a winning record. And, it's worth nothing that Philadelphia had a quarterback change...and didn't win its division. So, it's a team that was less likely to be overpriced this season. The defending conference champs are 0-2 ATS. Green Bay was a popular pick to go to the Super Bowl this year. They're 1-2 ATS. America's Team, Dallas, has split.
The public loves betting playoff teams at prices that seem cheap. That's saddled them with a 5-9-1 record in the NFC.
Let's move to the AFC...
2009 AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS ON THE ROAD THIS YEAR
Indianapolis: Lost at Houston, Won at Denver, Lost at Jacksonville
NY Jets: Won at Miami, Won at Buffalo,
Cincinnati: Lost at New England, Won at Carolina, Lost at Cleveland
Baltimore: Won at NY Jets, Lost a Cincinnati, Won at Pittsburgh
New England: Lost at NY Jets, Won at Miami
San Diego: Lost at Kansas City, Lost at Seattle, Lost at Oakland
This is a little better. Maybe because the AFC didn't win the Super Bowl...and because so many teams seemed inferior to the Colts. It's hard to be overpriced if you didn't impress the public. Still, it adds up to a 7-9 record, which won't win you any money in Las Vegas.
Add the two together, and you get 12-18-1...a miserable 40% cover rate for last year's playoff teams in their road games thus far. The Jets are the only team that's undefeated ATS on the road, and they're clearly playing like they're on a mission. Everyone besides the Jets is 10-18-1.
Now, there's no guarantee that this tendency will continue going forward. I'm explaining what's happened so far. Oddsmakers eventually adjust. The public eventually stops betting on teams that are costing them money. The Super Bowl hangover for New Orleans can't last all season, can it? Maybe the work turns this week. Maybe we're still a month away. Here's a list of this week's games to watch in this category:
San Diego is at St. Louis
Baltimore is at New England (in a playoff rematch!)
New Orleans is at Tampa Bay
NY Jets are at Denver
Dallas is at Minnesota (in another playoff rematch)
Indianapolis is at Washington
You can see why I picked today to bring this tendency to your attention. The most important TV games in the afternoon sessions are on the list. The prime time game is on the list as well. Monday Night's game isn't unfortunately, but I will have a special divisional rivalry trend I'll be playing in that game for my clients.
The exact same NFL games I'm betting the biggest myself are always available here at the website for credit card purchase. It's the next best thing to standing in line with me at Caesar's Palace or the Wynn. Log in a few hours before kickoff for my best games. Seasonal HIGH ROLLER packages for college and pro football are also available. Don't forget about this week's baseball! My unique insights into umpires and October weather influences put me ahead of the game in every postseason.
Playoff teams have been taking the worst of it on the road this year to a tune of 40%. You've been taking the worst of it if you've been backing these teams indiscriminately. It's time for you to sign up with TONY SALINAS so you can start GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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