Tony: Public Still Loves Patriots
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
NEW ENGLAND STRUGGLING TO COVER
INFLATED NFL POINTSPREADS
The New England Patriots are on national TV again this week, as they visit the Miami Dolphins Monday Night on ESPN.
The Patriots are one of the most 'public' teams in the league because of their recent Super Bowl dynasty, and that incredible regular season they had a couple of years ago that was one for the history books.
It's been a while since they played like history-makers, or even a team that looks like a Super Bowl threat. Vegas oddmakers keep pricing them like champions because the public keeps betting them hand over fist.
Let's take a look at what the Patriots have done so far this season.
New England (-5) beat Cincinnati 38-24
This was a win and a cover, against a team that might turn out not to be very good! But, I can't begrudge Patriots backers this one. New England jumped ahead 24-3 in the first half and the rest was garbage time.
New England (-3) lost to the NY Jets 28-14
What a horrible line this turned out to be. The Jets were obviously the better team...and were playing at home. The 'market' said New England would have been six points better on a neutral field. It looked more like the Jets would have been that much better on a neutral field. The public's love affair with New England really cost them here.
New England (-14) beat Buffalo 38-30
Again, a line that was way off the mark. New England only led 17-16 at the half. Their defense just isn't good enough to protect a big lead on a consistent basis. Vegas was off by about a touchdown.
One step forward, two steps back. The public wins a blowout...figures its safe to keep laying the points...then suffers two losses at lines that were frankly, RIDICULOUS!
This is a continuation of what happened late last season. Let's pick it up with six games left in the 2009 campaign:
New England (+1) lost at New Orleans 38-17
New England (-4.5) lost at Miami 22-21
New England (-12.5) beat Carolina 20-10
New England (-6.5) won at Buffalo 17-10 (a half point cover)
New England (-9) beat Jacksonville 35-7 (easy cover)
New England (+7) lost at Houston 34-27 (push)
New England (-3.5) lost to Baltimore 33-14
That's a 2-4-1 finish against the Vegas numbers...with one of the covers being by a half a point, and the other coming at home late in the season against a lame duck team from the south that didn't bother showing up. Yes, New England can still blow out bad teams from the South that don't show up in cold weather. There's a push in a meaningless game. We throw that out. Otherwise, you see a public team that was consistently mispriced because they were getting too much respect.
Most importantly in terms of grading how good New England really is. Versus the only two playoff caliber opponents in the mix, they missed expectations by 20 points (New Orleans) and 20.5 points (Baltimore).
New England just isn't a great team any more. The public thinks they are.
Monday Night we have a rematch of the game at Miami that the Patriots lost 22-21 last year. Oddsmakers have made an adjustment...as the Pats are either pick-em or -1 this time around. That tells you people are starting to pay attention. Have they made enough of an adjustment? New England only beat Buffalo by 8 at home. Miami beat the Bills by 5 on the road. Factor in home field advantage, and Miami just might be the better team.
I've been a HIGH ROLLER in Vegas for decades because of my ability to GET THE BEST OF IT whenever value is offered. I know when to go against mispriced teams. I know when the line has caught up to reality. Every so often, there's an overreaction and I step in the other way.
This Sunday and Monday in the NFL, I see:
*Several teams who were good last year but are still overpriced by more than a field goal this season.
*Several up-and-comers who are at least three points better than bettors realize.
*A few teams who have been overrated or underrated off surprising starts in their first three games of 2010.
This has set up a very powerful Sunday card that will then be followed up by a MONDAY NIGHT MONSTER where we let the weekend profits ride (note that my MNF play might be on the total!). You can purchase all of the games I'm betting biggest myself online with your credit card. Check in a few hours before kickoff on game days. Full season HIGH ROLLER packages are also available. If you have any questions, call the office at 1-888-536-8880.
The public takes the worst of it by being stubborn. I'm stubborn about picking winners. Sign up with TONY SALINAS and start GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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