Conference Wars Favor Dogs
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
DON'T FALL INTO TRAP OF
LAYING POINTS IN CONFERENCE WARS
There are a lot of huge games this week in college football. And, I'm sure some favorites will end up getting the money in some of the games. But, if you want to GET THE BEST OF IT in the marquee showdowns and conference wars from now through the rest of the season, you'll want to shade your action toward the underdogs.
Why is that? Many reasons.
*First of all, lines are shaded against public action...and the public loves betting favorites in these games. The lines seem so CHEAP to them! They're used to seeing big name programs laying spreads in the teens or twenties (or even higher), that they can't resist a single digit spread. The public really comes out to bet big games like Florida/Alabama, Texas/Oklahoma, and the top matchups in the Big Ten. They're all on TV. The public bets TV games anyway. Now they're getting TV games with favorites that 'seem' cheap to them. That means free points for us.
*Motivation usually favors the dog in conference wars that match up contenders because dogs are never overconfident. They know they have to play one of their best games of the year to win (and, this type of dog is thinking about WINNING not just covering a Vegas spread). Favorites are prone to thinking that they can just show up and win. Plus, many are less focused on peaking THIS week. In other words, more teams get up for Alabama in the SEC than Alabama gets up for. Substitute the top teams in any BCS conference for Alabama, and the same is true.
*Home field advantage means LESS for favorites in conference wars because opponents are used to visiting all the stadiums. The Swamp in Florida just doesn't scare SEC teams the way it does outsiders. Remember when Ole Miss went there and stunned Tim Tebow? It means something, but not the full 3-4 points that will show up in the Vegas line. That's a few more free points in your favor.
*Home field advantage means MORE for underdogs because any home underdog spot in league play is likely to be the most hyped game locally all season. Talk about intangibles. Big 12 home underdogs will play their games of the year against Texas, Oklahoma, or Nebraska. Stadiums that may only be half full normally are now jammed to the rafters. The public will be betting the road favorites in this kind of game...which will keep 'true' home field advantage from being reflected in the Vegas line.
Now, again, I want to emphasize that we're not talking about a 100% foolproof approach to picking all games. There are usually 1-2 teams each season that just go through and dominate everybody. And, it's not like a conference power is going to lose ALL of their challenge games anyway. We're talking about percentages. You're getting 8-5 the best of it in my view (at least!) by looking at underdogs in these games. You start with a list of all of them, then use your other handicapping tools to narrow the slate down to the games that deserve the most attention with your betting units.
Will I ever pick a favorite in a big college showdown? It happens. The smaller the spread, the more likely it is to happen. For me to step in on a favorite, I'd have to believe that the underdog is being overrated by the oddsmakers. That does happen. Maybe Texas is 10 points worse than everyone thought they'd be. Maybe Stanford's not as good as their press. Let me assure you though that you don't become a HIGH ROLLER in Las Vegas by laying points in the majority of your games.
You can purchase my top college and pro plays all season long right here online. The exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself are always available a few hours before kickoff. I'll have something for you Friday Night in BYU/Utah State...and then a MONSTER card Saturday with all of those great matchups. If you have an questions about service call 1-888-536-8880.
I know most of you are focusing on big games like Florida/Alabama, Texas/Oklahoma, and Stanford/Oregon this week. Just remember that we have conference wars all over the ticket:
*The Big Ten starts league play Saturday, including Penn State/Iowa and Wisconsin/Michigan State.
*The ACC has a few attractive matchups like Miami-Clemson and Virginia Tech-NC State.
*The Pac 10 has games outside Stanford/Oregon that could be just as entertaining.
*The majority of the full schedule is conference games rather than non-conference games for the first time this year.
Get to work! You've go some LIVE DOGS to find. If you're having trouble, give me a call so you can GET THE BEST OF IT WITH TONY SALINAS!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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