Get Ready for High NFL Spreads

Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!


There was only one double digit pointspread last week in the NFL, when Green Bay was -13 at home against Buffalo. Green Bay won easily, making it certain that they'll be big favorites again at home...and Buffalo will be big underdogs again on the road.

This week there are three games that are in double digits in the early lines. Get used to seeing this. There's still a big difference between the have's and the have not's this year...which means handicappers will be dealing with high spreads on a regular basis for the foreseeable future.

New England (-13) vs. Buffalo
Baltimore (-10.5) vs. Cleveland
Minnesota (-10) vs. Detroit

Feels like last year, doesn't it? Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit were bad last year, and are a combined 0-6 straight up to start the new season. New England, Baltimore, and Minnesota were playoff teams last season.

You may not think three games with double digit spreads is a lot. Be aware that many of the other lines this week are hinting at big spreads in the future. Home field advantage is worth three points in the NFL. So, that means a spread would be six points different if a game was played at the opposing team's site. If you see a 5-point road favorite, that means they'd be -11 at home as a general rule.

Here's why I'm making that point.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Tampa Bay (even without Roethlisberger)
Cincinnati (-3.5) at Carolina
Washington (-3.5) at St. Louis
Philadelphia (-3) at Jacksonville
Indianapolis (-5) at Denver
San Diego (-5.5) at Seattle
Green Bay (-3) at Chicago

All of the 3-point favorites would be -9 at home, which is almost a double digit spread. All the 3.5-point favorites would be -9.5 at home. Indianapolis and San Diego would be laying double digits to Denver and Seattle respectively based on those prices.

In weeks where a lot of contenders are hosting have-nots, you're going to see a very high number of double digit spreads. Remember, a lot of the bad teams have been playing each other to start the season. That's not going to hold true all season.

You're most common "big ugly" underdogs are going to be:
St. Louis
Detroit (until Matthews gets back)
Tampa Bay (though they may be improving)

This list might soon include
Kansas City (soft schedule so far)
Arizona (quarterback problems)
Seattle (poor showing at Denver)
Jacksonville (visiting the very best teams)

That's about a third of the league. I don't need to list the regular suspects who will be high priced at home. It's the same teams as last year...and, in many cases, several years because the top quarterbacks have mostly learned how to stay healthy all season now.

You longtime readers know I specialize in underdogs. I was able to pick my spots well last year, and I'll do the same thing this season. I will continue to focus on these important keys:

  • I want MOTIVATED underdogs. I'm not going to bet on anybody that doesn't believe themselves that they have a chance to win.
  • I want to go against FLAT FAVORITES, because it's very hard to cover a big spread if you're flat off a big game last week, or looking ahead to a big game next week.
  • I want an offense that can move the ball in garbage time, because they can either win me some money the right way, or by coming through the back door in the final minutes.
  • I want a team of young players that's trying to improve so they can all stay in the league, rather than a veteran team that's just doing the bare minimum to cash their paychecks.

I'm ready for the challenge. I'm off to a winning start this season in pro football. That includes my NFL Shocker of the Month on Tampa Bay (+3) over Carolina 20-7 this past Sunday, and Monday's win with the 49'ers (+5.5) against the Saints. If you'd like to become a HIGH ROLLER like TONY SALINAS, sign up for my service online. You can get the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website.

If you have any questions about what's available, call the office at 1-888-536-8880. You probably won't get to talk to me directly because I spend so much time at Vegas sportsbooks. One of my representatives will be able to help you find the right package.

I'm very excited about how the 2010 season is shaping up. Underdogs are the proven way to get the money over time. The public always overbets favorites...and they're going to have a lot of big favorites to overbet this year. That means my clients and I will be GETTING THE BEST OF IT with those FREE POINTS all season long!


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