SB Champs Often Overpriced
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
STEELERS STARTED OUT 2009
1-5 AGAINST THE VEGAS SPREAD
As you're deciding whether or not to back the New Orleans Saints Thursday Night in their season opener with the Minnesota Vikings, and in the other games they'll be playing over the next several weeks...keep this in mind:
SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS ARE USUALLY OVERPRICED!
It doesn't happen every year. But, it happens enough that you should generally consider fading the defending Super Bowl champions until they show they're going to cover spreads consistently. That's going to GET THE BEST OF IT more years than not.
The defending champs are overpriced for a variety of reasons:
*The public loves betting on the best teams.
*The public is thinking of the champions at their 'peak' from last year's playoffs rather than their typical form. Nobody can play at their peak every week.
*The public doesn't give enough respect to the emotions coming from the other side. Any opponent would love to make a name for itself by knocking off the Super Bowl champs. That's particularly true if the team has revenge from a meeting last season.
*The public loves betting on 'heroic' quarterbacks, and most Super Bowl champions usually have a guy who's been on magazine covers for the past several months.
Drew Brees is a hero right now. Even more than others because he's seen as a short guy rising to the occasion in a league of giants...and because he helped bring the city of New Orleans back from the tragedy of Katrina. Man, from the coverage I've been seeing, you'd think these guys were actual saints!
Pittsburgh beat Arizona in the Super Bowl two years ago. Let's look at what happened to the Steelers at the beginning of the 2009 season...after Ben Roethlisberger had been on magazine covers for several months, and everyone was talking about how the Steelers might be in the early stages of a new dynasty:
Pittsburgh (-6.5) beat Tennessee 13-10 in overtime (non-cover)
Pittsburgh (-3) lost at Chicago 17-14 (non-cover)
Pittsburgh (-3.5) lost at Cincinnati 23-20 (non-cover)
Pittsburgh (-5.5) beat San Diego 38-28 (cover)
Pittsburgh (-11) beat Detroit 28-20 (non-cover)
Pittsburgh (-14) beat Cleveland 27-14 (non-cover)
That's 0-3 ATS to start the season, and 1-5 ATS in the first six games. Note that the spreads didn't seem super-inflated at the time. Pittsburgh didn't lay a TD or more until they ran into very bad Detroit and Cleveland squads. But, the team just couldn't play to expectations. The lines were only slightly inflated...but they still overstated Pittsburgh's edges over decent competition...and underestimated the ability of opponents to get fired up to play the defending champs.
This doesn't happen every year. It happens enough that you need to be very careful with the Saints. Be sure you have good reasons to lay points with them if that's your decision. You'll be taking the worst of it in the spread. And, you'll probably be betting the same team as the public. I'M A LIFETIME HIGH ROLLER BECAUSE I'M USUALLY AGAINST THE PUBLIC!
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