Should We Fade Notre Dame?
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
NOTRE DAME IS A PUBLIC TEAM...
BUT THEIR COACH IS A FAST STARTER
Over the years, you generally GET THE BEST OF IT by going against Notre Dame. They're a public team. They're on TV all the time. The public loves betting on Notre Dame. Because of that, the lines are shaded against them by a few points almost every time they take the field. Over time, those few points show up in your favor enough to make fading the Irish worthwhile.
And, the team is often overrated to begin with! Oddsmakers will fall into the trap of thinking the team is very good when they're not. So, you're getting SEVERAL free points in those years.
Let's say Notre Dame should really be just a 5-point favorite over an opponent. In the year's they're overrated...oddsmakers will think the 'right' line is -8...THEN they'll add 2-3 points because they know the public wants to bet the Irish. You'll see -10 or -11, and you'll be getting 5-6 free points in terms of reality. Some years its even worse than that.
Notice Notre Dame is currently -11 this week vs. Purdue. What do you think? Should Notre Dame only be -5? Should they be more like -8? Or, is -11 right and it's best to pass the game?
Most years, I'm on the opposing dog, whoever it is. I'll take my chances. This year, I have to be cautious. New head coach Brian Kelly has a reputation as a fast starter. He likes building confidence early. He emphasizes offensive execution in practice to a degree that his teams are often way ahead of the curve in September.
Kelly was at Cincinnati last year. Here's how the Bearcats started the 2009 season:
*Cincinnati (+4.5) beat Rutgers (on the road) 47-15
*Cincinnati beat SE Missouri 70-3
*Cincinnati (-1) beat Oregon State (on the road) 28-18
That was a 36.5-point cover on the road in a huge TV game (and Rutgers is probably similar to this year's Purdue team in the big picture), a slaughter of a cupcake, and a 9-point cover on the road against a team that was one play away from reaching the Rose Bowl.
That's what I mean. You don't want Purdue (+) if Notre Dame is going to win 47-15! And, if Kelly was getting those kind of performances on the ROAD, what might happen in front of a rabid home crowd in South Bend that's dying to cheer for a successful team after years of frustration?
I can assure you that I have this game on my radar. It may or may not be part of my Saturday package for clients. It might be best to just watch and study, then use what you learn the following weeks. If Notre Dame is going to have another 'Brian Kelly start,' then may be worth backing in the first half of the season. If the public bandwagon is driving too fast though, fading is the way to go.
Here's Notre Dame's early schedule:
Saturday: vs. Purdue
September 11: vs. Michigan
September 18: at Michigan State
September 25: vs. Stanford
October 2: at Boston College
October 9: vs. Pittsburgh
That could play out very nicely in either direction because it's a similar class of opposition. What happens in Game One could point you in the direction of what's going to GET THE BEST OF IT the next five weeks as well. All five of those opponents will be vulnerable against a Brian Kelly team playing well. All five are capable of beating Notre Dame if the transition takes longer than Kelly was hoping for.
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