Public Overreacts to MLB Trades

Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!


It was hilarious listening to the mainstream media talking about the rash of trades in Major League Baseball as the month of July came to an end.

They were saying:

*The rich got richer, with top contenders virtually locking up playoff spots with their acquisitions.

*The poor got poorer, with the worst teams giving up any hope of playing competitive ball this season.

*The middle class is stuck where they are and can't do anything about it.

This kind of hype is great for smart handicappers because hype is usually put right into the legal Las Vegas betting lines by oddsmakers who believe what they hear on ESPN, and bettors who fall into the same trap.

Look, when you're ALREADY a very good team, bringing in a new big name player might make you a teensy bit better. More often than not, it doesn't make a meaningful difference. Sometimes, it actually makes you worse because that big name player is on the downside of his career, or was playing his home games in a park that happened to favor his skills.

And, if you're ALREADY a struggling team, losing a star isn't as bad as you think. Everyone will be saying, 'they were a one-man team with that guy, what's going to happen when he's gone?' What often happens is that the replacement plays GREAT because he's fired up to be in the lineup. I've told you often that you shouldn't tell any group of athletes that they have 'no chance' to win because they'll do what they can to prove you wrong. The Houston Astros looked great for a couple of days when Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman left the fold.

Vegas lines move in favor of the hype...when they should either be standing pat or moving the other way based on the intangible factors that come into play after high profile trades. You're getting free odds by fading the hype. It won't work every game. But, history makes it clear that you'll be GETTING THE BEST OF IT with that approach. Once the dust has settled, and the emotions of the moment have worn off, you can accurately evaluate whether or not the trades are making any difference.

So, DON'T assume that the rich just bought themselves championships by making one-sided trades for big contract stars. And, don't assume that the newcomers on bad teams are going to be useless. A lot of times bad teams struggle because ownership is dumb, not because the backups don't know how to play. Owners have lucked into some good trades for the team when they thought they were just saving some money.

Keep a close eye on this for the next couple of weeks. I know football is coming up, and some of you will be tempted to move away from baseball and just play the foots. Baseball is VERY profitable in August and September. You're leaving money on the table if you don't take advantage.


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