The Public's Favorite NFL Teams
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
STEP ONE FOR NFL HANDICAPPING:
ISOLATE THE 'PUBLIC' TEAMS
The single most important thing you can do as an NFL handicapper is to bet against the public. You don't have to know the players, or the coaches. You don't even have to pay that much attention to the pointspreads. I'm convinced that blindly betting against public teams will GET THE BEST OF IT in most years all by itself.
Now, I've been around a long time. I've added some nuances. I tend to go against public teams HARD as big favorites, because that's when the line is most inflated against them. Public teams, if they're any good, will actually show up well as underdogs. I'm less concerned about fading them then. And, there are some situations where you want to step in early in a season (for last year's Super Bowl teams for example), but the edge gradually disappears later in the season.
Here's my working list for PUBLIC teams in the NFL this coming season.
THE SUPER BOWL TEAMS
Defending NFL champion NEW ORLEANS, and runner-up INDIANAPOLIS, are going to be expensive to back this season. Everyone wants to ride a winner. Both teams have great quarterbacks, and bettors always think the best quarterbacks will bail them out.
THE TV TEAMS
DALLAS is still America's Team in terms of TV ratings, and they generate a lot of public betting action as a result. Brett Favre has become America's quarterback, meaning lines for MINNESOTA will be high as well if he's able to come back from his ankle injury and start this season.
Do you remember the last time Dallas won a Super Bowl? Do you remember the last time Favre won one? It doesn't matter. The public bets like they win it every year.
THE BLOWOUT TEAMS
NEW ENGLAND still gets respect because they were so dominant three years ago. That's worn off a bit because Brady looked like he got old last season. Still, the public likes betting the Patriots, so I expect the Patriots to be a public team again in 2010.
SAN DIEGO has a reputation as a team that wins big when things are going well. That's created some very high home field lines for them in recent seasons. I think they're typically overpriced by 2-3 points as home favorites. I don't expect that to change this year.
THE NEW YORK TEAMS
Even though Las Vegas is a long way away from the Big Apple, that New York money seems to find its way into the pointspread. The New York JETS are an up-and-coming team under media friendly coach Rex Ryan. After making the playoffs, they're going to be a public team this year. The GIANTS won the Super Bowl two years ago. Plus, Eli Manning has had some of that Eli Manning aura rub off on him in terms of the public mindset.
That's a total of eight teams that I'll be looking to fade as big favorites this year, and in other situations as well if I believe oddsmakers are giving away free points. I suggest you start looking over their schedules now so you can circle the prime betting candidates. Winning football handicappers don't start in September. They're getting ready all summer long.
A great way for YOU to prepare for a huge football season is to sign up NOW for my personal service. Call 1-888-536-8880. Be sure to ask about baseball when you call. You can also purchase the exact same baseball games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website with your credit card.
Fade the public, and you'll always be GETTING THE BEST OF IT!
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.
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