A Secret About Cliff Lee
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
CLIFF LEE WILL HAVE TO LEARN TO LOVE TEXAS HEAT
The Texas Rangers made big news last Friday when they acquired Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners.
You regulars know I'm a Texan. Once you're a sports bettor, you naturally lose much of your allegiance to hometown teams because you end up betting for and against EVERYBODY eventually. Winning sports bettors love MONEY more than they love the teams they grew up with. Still, I'm glad to see the Rangers finally acting like a big time team. Have you been to Dallas? It ain't Milwaukee! Dallas acts like a big market team with the Cowboys and Mavericks. It's about time the Rangers stopped whining that they couldn't compete because they weren't New York. They're big enough. Nolan Ryan's finally explaining that to them.
Anyway, Cliff Lee was supposedly going to the Minnesota Twins a few days earlier. It was almost a "done deal" according to media accounts. Then, the New York Yankees had stepped in to be the frontrunner. Some outlets said that WAS a "done deal." Out of nowhere, the Rangers swooped in.
And, acquired a big money pitcher who has a terrible history pitching in Arlington!
How come ESPN and all those places weren't talking about that. Here's what Cliff Lee did in Arlington over the years when pitching for opposing teams:
CLIFF LEE IN ARLINGTON (7 starts)
.311 opposing batting average
.472 opposing slugging percentage
Let's compare those to his career numbers in all parks...
CLIFF LEE'S CAREER MARKS
.261 opposing batting average
.406 opposing slugging percentage
By the time you read this, he'll have pitched Saturday Night in his debut with the team. You can factor in the numbers from that game with those prior seven starts (and remember that he was facing Baltimore, one of the worst teams in baseball).
Clearly, you can't give Texas the American League crown just yet. Lee hasn't pitched well in the heat, and there's still six weeks of starts left for him in July and August alone. Even if he starts out well he might wear down. This is far from the sure thing the media was making it out to be.
Though, I will say that this kind of move really says something to the players. They know management is trying to win a division, and a league championship right now. That's really going to boost the energy and excitement in the clubhouse...and with the home crowd. You saw how that kind of buzz carried Tampa Bay to a World Series two years ago. Even if Cliff Lee does turn out to be overrated and overpriced in terms of his ability to thrive in his home games, you still have to be careful picking your spots.
I'm in a bit of a pickle. I think the prices have been too high with Texas lately anyway, and Lee's become a very expensive pitcher. But, the Texas Rangers are definitely a qualifier for my "no chance" theory. That's where you can't tell a team they have "no chance" to win because they'll do whatever it takes to prove you wrong. Texas has been told "no chance" for years. They finally have a group of players with chips on their shoulders about it.
My streak theory will help me out, forcing me to ride the Rangers while hot, and fade them when cold. I've had great success using the weather forecasts down there for totals bets. I expect that to continue. I'll have to play it by ear regarding picking additional spots with this team (or their opponents) at the current prices.
Just wanted to let you in on that secret about Cliff Lee. Handicappers should know pitching histories! Even if newspaper reporters or TV pundits don't.
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I'm interested to see if Texas really "got the best of it" with their trade for Lee. He may not be an ideal match if he can't pitch in the heat. Of course, they kept him from going to another AL contender, which is a big plus by itself. You can rest assured that YOU'LL be BETTING THE BEST OF IT if you sign up with TONY SALINAS!
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