Umpires, Weather in Low Totaled Games
'GETTING THE BEST OF IT'
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
REMEMBER TO STUDY UMPIRES, WEATHER
WHEN YOU SEE 7, 6.5, OR EVEN 5.5!
The first time we saw a 6.5 for an MLB total this year, you had a bunch of losing gamblers running around the sportsbooks like a chicken with its head cut off. 'Oh my God! This is such a low total! We've got to bet the Over!'
Then, when we saw the first 6.0, the same thing happened. Memorial Day afternoon, Vegas had a 5.5 up in the Colorado/San Francisco Giants game matching Ubaldo Jiminez and Tim Lincecum. You'd have thought the total was zero and any run was going to win the Over bet.
Look, the reason Vegas totals are dropping is because scoring is down this year...and the pitcher's duels really ARE that low scoring. Just blindly betting Over against any low total is dumb. You'll sit there for two and a half hours watching a 2-1 game before tearing up your ticket. There ARE some situations where it's worth betting the Over though.
*With OVER UMPIRES! Guys with small strike zones do a lot of damage to ace caliber pitchers. Those guys are used to pitching ahead in the count and getting a lot of strikeouts. If the ump is squeezing them on close pitches, they get flustered and lose their cool. If you have an Over umpire behind the plate, betting Over 5.5, 6.0, 6.5, or 7 can be a great play.
*With OVER WEATHER! A lot of strikeout pitchers are fly ball pitchers They try to blow the ball past people. When hitter's connect, it's a fly ball out (particularly on rare mistakes in the heart of the strike zone). If the wind is blowing out, those fly balls to the outfielders turn into home runs or doubles off the wall. If the weather is warm, same thing.
I should also mention that hot temperatures will help Over bettors too. Ace pitchers will typically only go 7 innings in hot conditions. That gives you two innings with relievers to get you some runs even if the starters shut people down (which they don't always do).
*With OVER STADIUMS! There are pitcher's parks and hitter's parks in Major League Baseball, with seasonal locations at all of them that influence scoring. I've seen some really DUMB bets on the Over in places like Seattle and San Diego that greatly inhibit scoring. You'd better have an Over umpire or the wind blowing out in a day game to even consider something like that. We're seeing some 7's in other parks though. Yesterday's 5.5 was in a day game in San Francisco. Remember to consider the stadium when making your best choices.
Should you ever bet Under these low totals? Sometimes, believe it or not, you're actually GETTING THE BEST OF IT by dancing the limbo under these numbers. People thought the 7 was low in Philadephia/Florida last week. Roy Halladay threw a perfect game in a 1-0 win. We've seen a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 type games this year in the Under stadiums with pitching friendly weather and/or Under umpires.
In some instances, the 'right' total is 5 or less. The market hasn't yet gone that low. Maybe it will!
Just remember...the key to beating these low totals is to look at umpires, weather, and stadium conditions. Don't kneejerk one way or the other because you recall a game from two weeks ago where your friends were wrong and you were right. The major leagues on the field don't care what you and your friends think. They'll play Unders in poor scoring conditions, and they'll play Overs if they get help from umpires and the weather.
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