Tony: Some Pitchers Just Own Certain Teams
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
REMEMBER TO INCLUDE PITCHING HISTORIES IN YOUR DAILY HANDICAPPING
As you know, most of my efforts in baseball revolve around umpires, the weather, and streaks. If you just focus on those three things, you're going to GET THE BEST OF IT over the long haul.
I also put a lot of weight on pitching histories vs. certain teams. I've been handicapping a long time. I was the first guy to keep track of umpires. I was one of the earliest analysts to make good use of pitching histories too.
Now, some skeptics will tell you that a pitcher's history vs. a certain team doesn't mean anything. The sample size is too small. Personnel changes too much. Who cares what a guy did against Pirates five years ago?
Hey, sometimes the skeptics are right! I'm not saying pitching histories are perfect. But, they will help you win more than you lose. That's what GETTING THE BEST OF IT is all about. You find strategies that help you win more than you lose, accepting that you're going to lose some of the time.
Here's why I like pitching histories:
- There's a lot of stability in franchises right now. Some teams are ALWAYS young and inexperienced. Some teams are ALWAYS home run based because they play in bandbox parks. Some teams are ALWAYS strike out prone because management loves paying for sluggers. A pitcher's history against a team is often just his history against a "style." If that team still plays the same style, the pitching history is going to matter.
- There's a split in baseball right now between offenses who like to "work the count" and challenge pitchers to throw strikes...and those who are more aggressive at the plate. Certain types of pitchers thrive against one style but struggle against the other. Again, it's about styles. I've found that a pitcher with a great recent history against a team often matches up very well against that style. I've found that pitchers with a horrible history against a team have a weakness that's right in the opposing offense's wheelhouse. It doesn't matter that sample size is small. A wild pitcher is going to struggle against offenses who work the counts!
- Confidence matters. When a pitcher has confidence against a certain team, he's usually going to throw very well for you. When a pitcher is afraid of a team, you've got no chance. I'm sick of all these computer guys telling me that you can't measure confidence. Hey, those pipsqueaks don't have enough confidence to make a big bet! I've got the confidence to bet big. The right pitchers have the confidence to get outs when they need them.
- The unbalanced schedules give you a lot of samples to work with! I pay A LOT of attention to stats within a division. A pitcher may face a team four to five times in the same season. A veteran will have faced that team 14-15 times over the last three years. You want to tell me THAT history doesn't matter?!
I used to do all this stuff by hand, or subscribe to publications that kept it. Now, with the internet, you can find great baseball stat sites all over the place. I strongly encourage you to spend some time this week looking at pitching histories. Look at all the divisional rivalries in play right now where histories matter most:
San Diego/San Francisco
Chicago White Sox/Minnesota
When new series arrive this weekend, we'll have six new ones in play.
If you don't have the time to track down umpires, weather, streaks, and pitching histories each day, you can take the easy way out and sign up for my HIGH ROLLER service. Call 1-888-536-8880 for more information. Check on my basketball program when you call. I should also have something for clients in the Preakness this Saturday too.
Baseball is the best sport for handicappers because the information you need to win is easy to find. Stick with TONY SALINAS to make sure you GET THE BEST OF IT!
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