Rested Favorites Dangerous in Home Openers

Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!


As I was watching Orlando wrap up its series with the Charlotte Bobcats Monday Night, I was thinking that I should remind every one of you about a huge handicapping factor. It plays into the TONY SALINAS ZIG ZAG THEORY that we've already talked about.

First, remember that you're supposed to look at HOME teams in a series opener. The crowds are boisterous because they want to set the tone for a series. And, that peak intensity is coming just as the road team is getting its bearings at the new site. Sure, home crowds are loud in a Game Seven. The visitors are deep into the series by then and not intimidated. It's GAME ONE where home court means the most based on my years of studying and betting the playoffs.

Now, add in the bonus edge of extra time off before the opener, and you have a HUGE advantage. You have a fresh team, with fresh legs, playing in front of a high energy crowd, against a road team just getting its bearings. They won't cover every single spread. And, sometimes the spreads here get awfully high because it's only the best teams who can earn a big rest break. You should still be either thinking favorite, or at least passing the dog in these situations.

I play so many underdogs that passing the game sometimes feels like I bet the favorite!

Oh, don't forget the first quarter and first half strategies I've discussed in prior articles in these games. Fresh home teams in front of great crowds often start the game on fire. The visitors are down 10 points before they know what hit them. That early surge often covers 1Q and 1H lines all by itself.

Orlando has already established they'll have a lead time in the second round. They'll face the winner of the Milwaukee/Atlanta series that will go at least six games. I wanted to put this on your radar NOW while I was thinking about it. That way you could be making plans as these other series finish up.

Basic keys:

  • If both teams come in with the same amount of rest, the HOME team will still have a Game One edge unless the price is very inflated because of public betting.
  • If the home team comes in with a big fatigue advantage, they become even STRONGER, particularly in 1Q and 1H betting.
  • If the home team is actually at a fatigue disadvantage, which happens sometimes and could happen this year depending on results with the top two seeds in the West...then you have to be a little careful with the traditional zig-zag methodology. I still believe strongly that home teams get a huge boost in their openers. Tired legs will negate some of that. In these cases I look very strongly at the underdogs with fresh legs in Game TWO when the home team has its letdown after that crowd surge.

You should always be thinking ahead when it comes to the NBA playoffs. This lets you bet the soft opening lines when they come up. This lets you study each game with an eye on the future rather than just sitting there rooting for your bet. Dumb public bettors don't even think about who they're betting until they're getting ready to watch the game on TV. Professional wagerers are GETTING THE BEST OF IT with better strategies, and a better thought process.

If you'd like to GET THE BEST OF IT the rest of the way in the playoffs, sign up for my personal service by calling 1-888-536-8880. You can also purchase the exact same plays I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website with your credit card.

I've got a few BIG plays planned in the wrap-ups to the opening round. You can already tell I've mapped out many of the second round series. That's how HIGH ROLLERS do it.

Sign up with TONY SALINAS, the man who virtually invented playoff handicapping!



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