Handicapping The Wind at Wrigley Field
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
HOW TO HANDICAP THE WIND AT WRIGLEY FIELD
If you're new to baseball handicapping, you may not be aware that the Over/Unders at Wrigley Field vary greatly depending on the wind conditions.
- When the wind is blowing out, the totals will be as high as 12 or more.
- When the wind is blowing in, you may see 7, or even 6.5 if good pitchers are on the mound.
- When the wind is blowing side to side, you'll see a 9...which is what was posted in the season opener this past Monday vs. Milwaukee. It turned out those winds were helping homers more than Vegas realized...as a total of FOUR home runs helped launch a 9-5 game that flew Over the total.
I'm always talking about how to use weather to help your handicapping. Wrigley Field is the ONLY stadium where Vegas oddsmakers adjust the numbers like this. And, amazingly, they still don't do enough!
- When the wind is blowing out, you'll see some explosions that go way higher than 12-13 runs. Now, if there's an Under umpire, or a ground ball pitcher on the mound, you have to be careful. It's best to have everything lined up in terms of weather, umpires, and pitchers. As long as the other factors aren't hurting you, 12-13 is probably too low. If those other things are helping you, the winning team may score more than 12-13 all by themselves!
- When the wind is blowing in, it's VERY hard to get to seven runs unless the starting pitchers just don't have anything. Games ending 2-1 or 3-0 are very common. If you have an Under umpire behind the plate, somebody is going to get shut out. Flyball pitchers like Ted Lilly to great when the wind is blowing in. Generally, you're GETTING THE BEST OF IT by betting Under 7 or 7.5 even though that will strike you as a low total. It's usually not low enough!
- When the wind is blowing side to side, it can almost have the same impact as blowing out. We saw that Monday with all the home runs leaving the field. Pay attention to pitching styles and umpires, and whether the wind is helping to left field (a better HR alley usually) or right field. Also remember that strike out pitchers can take the wind out of play because it's so hard for hitter's to make contact. Hurlers who "pitch to contact" are much more at the mercy of the elements.
The Cubs play again Wednesday afternoon, then will have 79 more home games this year. That will give you plenty of opportunities to take advantage. And, it's not like you need to be a weatherman to know what the forecast is. Vegas oddsmakers don't post totals until game day at Wrigley, and the number that goes up on the board tells you what the wind is doing!
I should also point out that many Vegas books now offer "first half" lines in baseball like they do for football and basketball. This is a bet on what's going to happen in the first five innings of the game. The same tendencies hold true here. You want to go Over if the wind is blowing out (the home runs start flying out immediately, they don't wait until the second half of the game!). You want to bet Under if the wind is blowing in. A lot of these games are 1-0 or even scoreless through five. Monday's game was 9-4 through five innings. The Cubs BY THEMSELVES had scored the FULL GAME total in the first five innings!
We're off to a great start in the bases already. In fact, the Cubs (-) over Milwaukee was a big winner for me on Monday...continuing a recent streak of big play winners. If you'd like to sign up for my HIGH ROLLER baseball service, call 1-888-536-8880. You can also purchase the exact same games I'm betting the biggest myself right here at the website with your credit card.
The wind is always at your back when TONY SALINAS is your handicapper!
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