Wagering Public Scared To Death Of No-Name Underdogs!
"GETTING THE BEST OF IT"
Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!
WAGERING PUBLIC SCARED TO DEATH OF NO-NAME UNDERDOGS!
Probably the trickiest thing for you to handicap in the Sweet 16 games Thursday and Friday is the role of public influence in the line.
Are you seeing a "fair" like, or have one or two points been added because the public likes betting the favorite?
I think there are a few games where this is obvious:
*The public has seen Syracuse win a bunch of big games on TV this year. They haven't seen Butler win much of anything. Though Butler has a GREAT record, nobody watches their games! The general public could care less about the bracket busters, and probably even had trouble sitting down for Butler/Murray State last weekend. Butler's win over UTEP was in that dead spot in the schedule where most of the country wasn't getting a game. Syracuse is the public team there. You and I know how good Butler is. The public is still scared to bet them.
*The public has seen Kentucky win several blowouts on TV this year. They crushed Wake Forest in the ACC in a big TV spot last week. Cornell? They weren't even on national TV until the tournament...and hardly anyone was taking them seriously until they had their games in the bag. Cornell looks like a bunch of little guys scampering round. The public will want the athletes of Kentucky in that matchup. I will point out here that Kentucky was dealing with an inflated line last week, and still won by 30! Another challenge for handicappers is knowing how to step out of the way of a runaway freight train.
*The public loves betting on Duke. Even though Purdue has become a great story overcoming an injury to their star ( I talked last time about how the public overrates injuries), it will be tough for the public to bet a shorthanded team against a perceived powerhouse like Duke. You can pretty much always assume that the public is on Duke. Should the favorites keep winning, the public may be on Duke every single time out. Maybe this is the year that finally works! Duke had been 2-12 ATS the past few years, but has covered its games so far.
Those #1 seeds left in the Dance are all public teams. It's my view that the lines have been adjusted somewhat because of public betting tendencies.
In the other games?
*Michigan State and West Virginia are favorites who are dealing with injuries. The pubic hates laying points with a team missing a key player.
*Baylor and Kansas State are relative unknowns with limited recent tournament histories. The public won't line up on them the way they might on other #2 or #3 seeds that they're more familiar with.
*Ohio State is a public team, but so is underdog Tennessee. This line might be a "fair" one as a result.
You regulars know that most of my selections are underdogs. But, they're NOT ALL underdogs! I don't mind laying points against a fair line. The only chance you have to GET THE BEST OF IT with a favorite is when no points have been added to defend against public action. I'll have that opportunity Thursday and Friday night. I think I've got a great slate of games. You've seen how hot I've been on both sides and totals so far through the college postseason. If you want to bet like a HIGH ROLLER, you need to be on the same games I'm betting the biggest myself.
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