Tony: Tired Legs, Fresh Legs

Handicapping Tips From Legendary High Roller TONY SALINAS!


I think one of the biggest edges I have over the linesmaker during the NCAA tournament is that I pay very close attention to what I call 'tired legs,' and 'fresh legs.'

I've talked about this here in my web articles in past seasons during the Big Dance. These elements are just important now as ever. Though, I have to admit that the game might be changing some in terms of the impact.

*In the old days, 'fresh legs' meant a lot of energy. Teams flew all over the court, and you'd often have very high scoring first halves because of all that pent-up energy. First round games are Thursday and Friday. Nobody's played since the weekend, and some teams have had a week off or more. 'Fresh legs' used to mean Overs in the first halves, and Overs in a lot of the first round games.

*Now, 'fresh legs' means more intense defense for some teams! Coaches are really emphasizing defense a lot more than they used to. I saw this in the conference tournaments this year, and we've already seen some of this in the Dance. Coaches who can channel that pent-up energy into defense can create Unders in first halves and games.

*In the old days, 'tired legs' would come into play on Saturday and Sunday when everyone was playing their second game in three days. Players would be tired because that first game was so intense. Their jump shots would hit the front of the rim instead of going in (I used to take advantage of this back in the days before the three-point line too). Pace would slow down because you just can't run for 80 minutes against top competition without wearing yourself out. Unders were the way to go, particularly in the second half of that second game.

*Now, 'tired legs' might turn out to mean that defenses are getting tired, and scoring inside is about to become easier. I'll be keeping a very close eye on that Saturday and Sunday. I don't want to bet any Unders in games where inside scoring is easy, or where tired players start fouling on drives to the basket. Jump shots won't fall short if nobody's taking jump shots!

Always remember that your biggest edge as a handicapper is that you have an ability to read and react to what's playing out before you. Vegas lines are based very much on general perceptions of the teams. Kansas is Kansas. Oddsmakers don't adjust for 'fresh Kansas,' or 'tired Kansas.' The general public doesn't even think about these things. They just see the name on the board and bet their favorite teams. YOU have the ability to adjust for the nature of the game. College kids will ALWAYS be sky high for that first game of the tournament. You have to figure out how to turn that into winners. Winning teams will ALWAYS be dealing with potential mental and physical fatigue in the second round. You have to figure out how to turn THAT into winners too.

This ability to think on your feet is what makes it possible to beat the line and make a living as a sports bettor. That's what I've been doing for more than 30 years here in Las Vegas.

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I want you focusing very hard on 'tired legs' this weekend, then 'fresh legs' in the Sweet 16 round when everyone's had a few days off again. What you learn...and what you see with your own eyes will definitely help you GET THE BEST OF IT!

'GETTING THE BEST OF IT' is an ongoing series presented by and legendary high roller TONY SALINAS. For more information on TONY'S handicapping packages, call 1-888-536-8880.


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