Network Bulletin November 30 - December 2, 2013 (November 29, 2013)
Volume 29, Issue 13 - Saturday, Nov 30 thru Monday, Dec 2
Get all of the NCAA Football Winners for this weekend and the remainder of this 2013 season when you check in with Jim Hurley either online at www.JmHurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 after 10am (ET) on game-day mornings and after 1pm. ET for the weeknight games.
GOBBLE, GOBBLE, GOBBLE UP THE PROFITS
Saturday November 3
#3 OHIO STATE (11-0, 7-0 Big 10) at MICHIGAN (7-4, 3-4 Big 10) - 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Hey, Ohio State's handed the Wolverines some major beatings in recent years - see 37-7 back in 2010 and 42-7 in the 2008 season - so this two-TD road favorite's price may not be out of whack especially if the Michigan O-line can't protect QB Devin Gardner who has been sacked a gazillion times this year.
Can Gardner move-and-juke his way around this Buckeyes defense to make some big pass plays downfield and can a Michigan rushing attack that ranks 100th nationally (just 128.8 ypg this year) come alive ... or this game headed for another Ohio State blowout as Meyer's guys have won eight games by 18-or-more points.
Spread Notes - Ohio State has hardly been the money-maker you might think this year as the Buckeyes are a modest 6-5 ATS so far and they're 13-10 spreadwise in the Meyer Era (not quite as good as you thought, right?). Note Ohio State's 7-1-1 spreadwise in its last nine head-to-head showdowns against the maize-and-blue. Meanwhile, despite the angst of this current campaign the Michigan Wolverines still are 6-5 against the odds and that includes underdog covers the past two weeks at Northwestern and at Iowa.
#2 FLORIDA STATE (11-0, 8-0 ACC) at FLORIDA (4-7, 3-5 SEC) - 12 p.m. ET, CBS
There's the quest to win this year's Heisman Trophy for now-runaway leader QB Jameis Winston; And then there's the legal issues involving Winston that may or may not kayo him for whatever bowl game the 'Noles play in this year to say nothing of his pending status as a free man.
Now, let's throw another log on the fire and bring up the fact that underachieving - but still arch-rival - Florida serves here as a four-TD home underdog and Florida State could be in for a tougher fit than imagined with under-siege Gators head coach Will Muschamp likely leaving no stone unturned here.
If Winston and mates can gallop out to their usual quicksilver start, then the not-so-mighty Gators will be left in the dust and keep in mind that FSU has scored 607 points this year and has exceeded the 40-point mark in 11 consecutive games. Not only has Winston thrown for 3,163 yards with 32 TDs and 7 INTs but this State defense leads the country with 23 interceptions.
Spread Notes - Florida State is an electric 9-2 versus the vig this season and the Seminoles have covered three-of-four road games after going a dismal 1-6 ATS away in 2012. Note that Florida is an ugly 4-7 against the Las Vegas price tags this season and that makes the Gators 16-19 ATS in the Muschamp Era. P.S., the betting favorite has covered seven of the last 10 games in this Sunshine State series.
#1 ALABAMA (11-0, 7-0 SEC) at #4 AUBURN (10-1, 6-1 SEC) - 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The strategy here is simple for a Crimson Tide team that's allowed just 50 points to be scored on 'em the past nine games (ever since that wild 49-42 non-win at Texas A&M back on Sept. 14th): Keep everything that Auburn does on offense "in front of" the Alabama defense and see if the Tigers can rattle the country's fourth-ranked rush defense (allowing 91.3 ypg) and so Auburn QB Nick Marshall remains the key and expect 'Bama to "spy" on him for much/all of this SEC affair. If Marshall (823 yards rushing and 9 ground scores this year) can average five yards a pop running it, then he might be able to sneak a couple of downfield chucks against a somewhat suspect Alabama secondary.
On the flip side, Alabama's senior quarterback AJ McCarron - obviously no stranger to big-stage games - probably will take a few downfield chances here early in the game in an attempt to loosen up an Auburn defense that's allowed 38, 41 and 35 points to be scored in other high-profile conference game matchups against Georgia, Texas A&M and LSU.
If you're searching for some important number, than look for Alabama to rush the ball 35-plus times - that's about the per-game rushing attempts this 2013 Tide team sports and many of them will be simply to keep Auburn's offense on the sidelines ... yes, the time-of-possession state does matter here.
Finally, Alabama head coach Nick Saban thrives in these high-pressure games and just so you know, Saban's Alabama teams have won at Texas A&M, at Missouri and at LSU in the past two years - this next-door-neighbor trip won't scare 'em but remember it's Auburn playing with "house money" here.
Spread Notes - Alabama is a nifty 7-3 ATS (against the spread) this year and note the Crimson Tide's 17-8 versus the vig in all SEC affairs since the start of the 2011 campaign. On the flip side, Auburn enters this Iron Bowl riding an eight-game spread winning streak and the Tigers are a solid 5-3 ATS against 'Bama the past eight years.
#21 TEXAS A&M (8-3, 4-3 SEC) at #5 MISSOURI (10-1, 6-1 SEC) - 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread Note - Missouri is an electric 9-2 vig-wise this year (and that includes three separate three-game ATS winning streaks) but the Tigers have failed to cover five of their last six regular-season finales. Texas A&M - coming off back-to-back pointspread losses against Miss State and LSU - are 5-6 odds-wise this season and that includes a shabby 0-3 ATS road mark. Ouch!
TURKEY SHOOT RIVALRY GRAND SLAM SATURDAY
#24 DUKE (9-2, 5-2 ACC) at NORTH CAROLINA (6-5, 4-3 ACC) - 12 p.m. ET, espn2
Hey, North Carolina comes into this Tobacco Road clash having won its last five in a row and QB Marquise Williams - who threw five TDs in last week's 80-20 win against Old Dominion - has become the gem of the season for a Tar Heels bunch left for dead weeks ago.
Spread Note - Duke has reeled off six consecutive pointspread "W's" since mid-October and the Blue Devils are 9-2 ATS overall this year after going 0-5 ATS to finish off the 2012 season. Meanwhile, North Carolina's been no spread slouch lately either as the Tar Heels are 6-0 vig-wise since the middle of last month and did you know UNC's 9-3 ATS at home since the start of last season?
TURKEY SHOOT WEEKEND HOT GRUDGE SUNDAY
Get all of Jim Hurley’s NFL Week 13 winners when you check with him on game day Sunday after 10am ET and after 1pm ET on Monday for the MNF game either online at www.JimHurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453
Sunday December 1
TAMPA BAY (3-8) at CAROLINA (8-3) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers are allowing just 13.3 ppg during this aforementioned win streak while Tampa Bay's scored a grand total of 87 points during its current three-game win streak. Note that Carolina won the first meeting this year 31-13 as 7-point road favs back in Week 8 play.
Spread Notes - Carolina has notched spread wins in six of its seven SU (straight-up) wins since mid-October and did you know the Panthers are 6-2 ATS in divisional games since the start of last year? Meanwhile, Tampa Bay rolls into this NFC South clash riding a four-game spread winning streak and the Bucs are a collective 18-13 ATS in divisional road games the past 10-plus seasons.
SUNDAY NIGHT NFC EAST GRUDGE GAME
DENVER (9-2) at KANSAS CITY (9-2) - 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
No doubt the KayCee Chiefs had their own bit of soul-searching to do following last weekend's bitter back-and-forth 41-38 home loss versus San Diego but what gives here with a defense that didn't force a single SD turnover and now will be without pass-rushing LB Justin Houston (dislocated elbow) and could be without LB Tamba Hali (ankle sprain).
Two quickie notes on the Broncos: Their pass defense ranks a shoddy 29th in the league while yielding 283.2 ypg - Kansas City slinger Alex Smith should get to try out at least a half-dozen long flings to WRs Dwyane Bowe and friends here - and acting head coach Jack Del Rio is starting to feel the heat of stepping in for the sidelined John Fox.
Spread Notes - Denver is 6-4 against the odds so far this season and the Broncos have covered six-of-nine AFC West duels since the start of last year. On the flip side, Kansas City's now dropped four of its last five spread verdicts after a tasty 5-1 ATS (against the spread) start. Note that the Chiefs are 6-11 spreadwise as underdogs since the start of 2012
MINCE PIE MONDAY! - Saints at Seahawks
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