Bulletin Newsletter Volume 28 Issue 7

Volume 28, Issue 7 ~ Thursday, Oct 11 thru Monday, October 15

THE HURLEY SEZ HANDICAPPING CORNER

LAST WEEK'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL LINE MOVES
THAT EITHER WENT BOOM OR BUST

Hey, when all the dust finally settled on last weekend's busy College Football card, did you go back and examine what really happened?

We did- and here's what we discovered: In all, there were 12 games- an even dozen -- last Saturday that moved 3-or-more points away from the opening line to the closing line and those line moves wound up going 5-7 ATS (against the spread).

In a couple of instances, those line moves "made sense" as the absence of TCU's suspended QB Casey Pachall forced the Horned Frogs' line to go from-13 to-7 before TCU lost the "whole game" 37-23 to Iowa State. Than there were the multiple late-in-the-week suspensions handed down to a batch of Wake Forest starters and so no surprise that Maryland's price tag went from being a 4-point fav to a 7-point fav before not getting the cash in that 19-14 non-cover win against the WF Demon Deacons.

Still, there were other games in which the money simply was pounded in on one side over the other with disastrous results: See the following:

Rutgers went from a 10-point down to a 7-point betting favorite in its 19-3 win against UConn as the late-week money turned out all wrong. Think the public believed Rutgers was a fraud Top 25 team? Well, they paid to find out they were wrong!;

Florida State went from a 12 ½-point favorite to a 17-point choice before losing in the waning moments 17-16 at N.C. State. No doubt the Wolfpack's last-minute loss at Miami the week before bothered some folks but this price went wacko and the chalk guys/gals paid through the nose;

Finally, Texas A&M went from an opening-line favorite of 8 ½ points to 13 points in the 30-27 non-cover win at Ole Miss last Saturday night in Oxford. Interesting to note this game moved 3 points in the first 48 hours after the opening line was posted but gotta believe it was simply "big Texas A&M money" that drove the move and it actually went as high as 14 points before a last-second drop down to 13 points.

Anybody that's been "around the block" knows that line moves on your average week turn out about 50-50 and we've all seen those alleged "hot games" melt away into losers as often as they turn up winners. You have to question why a line is moving 3-or-more points with the college kids- suspensions, last-second reported injuries and the like make sense to move the number but why pay more in the price if there's no substance or real reason(s) to change the number?

In case you were wondering, last week's "smartest" line move was Notre Dame going from an 11 ½-point favorite to- 15 before crushing Miami 41-3- and note that last move up to 15 points came after it was announced that Notre Dame's starting QB Everett Golson would not start!

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NCAA PREVIEWS

Get all of the NCAA Football Winners for the remainder of this 2012 season when you check in with Jim Hurley either online at www.JimHurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 after 11am on game-day mornings and after 1pm ET for the weeknight games.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 13

TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (12 p.m. ET- at Dallas): Annual Red River Rivalry game may not be quite as sexy as in years past with OU Sooners currently ranked #13 and Texas Longhorns at #15 but better be sure that HC Brown's guys have major chip on their shoulder pads here following 55-17 loss to Oklahoma last year. Note that this is first time in five years that both clubs enter this game with a conference loss already and so no room for error here by either side but it'll be interesting to see if Texas QB Ash (11 TDs and 1 INT) can shine after last year getting sacked four times while throwing a pair of picks in that lopsided loss to the Boomer Sooners. P.S., Oklahoma is a plus-6 in turnover margin in the last two head-to-head hoedowns against the 'Horns.

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Last Week's Game Shocked with Florida (+2.5) beating LSU 14-6!

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WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS TECH (3:30 p.m. ET): Here's more Big 12 action on this busy College Football menu and $64,000 question is can anyone out there slow down the WVU Mountaineers? Note that HC Holgorsen's squad is averaging a haughty 52 ppg while ranking second nationally in pass offense (407 yards per game) and third in overall offense. Gotta believe hot-as-a-pistol QB Smith (24 TDs and 0 INTs) will see some different schemes here but if Texas Tech kids don't tackle well it'll be lights out early- did you know that the Red Raiders' defense surrendered 150 yards-after-contact in last week's brutal 41-20 home loss against Oklahoma? One major key for the home underdog Techsters is QB Doege (15 TDs and 6 INTs) who must avoid silly sacks at all costs. Got it?

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FLORIDA at VANDERBILT (6 p.m. ET): Straight from the did-you-know files is the fact that the Gators have won their last 21 in a row SU versus Vandy but this is true "trap game" what with Florida coming off highly-charged 14-6 win against LSU and with mighty South Carolina on deck ... be careful, coach Muschamp! Keep in mind the Gators are averaging 47 rushes per game this year and so QB Driskel won't be asked to "win" this game for the road favorites but he could lose it if third-down play ain't great. Vanderbilt has allowed 507 rushing yards in its two games this year against SEC ranked teams (see South Carolina and Georgia) and so we'll see what gives with smaller Commodores defense that could get worn down by late third quarter/early fourth quarter here.

USC at WASHINGTON (7 p.m. ET): Strange-but-true factoid here is that the UW Huskies have won two-of-three showdowns against USC since former Trojans assistant coach Sarkisian took over the reigns in Seattle back in 2009 but Las Vegas numbers guys/gals have Southern Cal an 11 ½-point fav at press time and keep in mind SC's had extra prep time following last Thursday's 38-28 non-cover win in Utah. No question that USC slinger Barkley (303 yards passing and three TDs versus Utah) is champing at the bit here after Oregon posted nearly 500 offensive yards in 52-21 win/cover against Washington last Saturday night but will a defense that surrendered four scoring strikes last week have a bounce-back game here? Key stat for the home pups in this Pac-12 clash is RB Sankey comes off back-to-back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing games and he could keep USC offense on the sidelines for major chunks of time here. Stay tuned!

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NFL WEEK 2 PREVIEWS

Get all of Jim Hurley's NFL Week 5 winners when you check with him on game day Sunday after 11 a.m. ET and after 1 p.m. ET on Monday for the MNF game either online at www.JimHurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 14

DALLAS at BALTIMORE (1 p.m. ET): Don't know about you but this Las Vegas price tag- the Ravens are favored by just 3 ½ points at this very moment- appears a tad "short" and do keep in mind that Baltimore's failed to cover its last three in a row as betting favorites this year (versus New England, Cleveland and Kansas City). Now, the Cowboys come into town off a bye and remember that last year Dallas covered against 6 ½-point fav New England off their bye week. The 'Boys believe TE Witten (a team co-leading 21 catches this year) is just now rounding into form after injury-plagued/drop-plagued start to this 2012 season and he'll be key here in the middle of the field against Ravens' LBs/DBs. Hey, what's with Baltimore QB Flacco who completed less than 50 percent of his passes (13-of-27) in last week's bumbling 9-6 non-cover win in Kansas City?

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NEW ENGLAND at SEATTLE (4:05 p.m. ET): A pair of 3-2 SU (straight-up) squads square off in the great Northwest and burning question is can the stout Seahawks defense (allowing 14 ppg) stop the potent Patriots attack that now stars RB Ridley/Bolden combo that broke loose for 205 rushing yards in last weekend's 31-21 win/cover against Denver? No doubt Seattle game plan is to possess the ball as long as possible with hard-charging RB Lynch needed for 25-or-so carries here but real X-factor is can 'Hawks steer clear of costly turnovers as kid QB Wilson airmailed pair of picks in last week's win at Carolina and he's showing some shaky traits lately ... hmmm.

GREEN BAY at HOUSTON (8:25 p.m. ET): Think the GB Packers (2-3) have a "sense of urgency" this week? Better believe HC McCarthy's guys have been rough on themselves this past week after blowing 21-3 halftime lead last week en route to 30-27 loss in Indy. One thing that didn't get enough post-game attention in that Week 5 tilt was the fact the Colts' offense averaged nearly five-and-a-half yards per offensive play and were on the field for 35:16 ... about time DC Capers' stop unit got physical and now facing unbeaten Texans this is true do-or-die type game for NFC North guys here. Look for Packers' QB Rodgers- operating here without injured RB Benson for the next eight weeks- to throw quick-hitter passes to his RBs and TEs and that could open up deep game and so WR Cobb will  be a central figure by night's end. You heard it here first, folks!

CASH MY SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE SHOWDOWN OF THE YEAR
 GREEN BAY PACKERS at HOUSTON TEXANS (-4)  (NBC-TV)

This is one of the most anticipated Sunday night matchups of the season. The Packers are coming off a tough loss to the Colts, while the Texans continued unbeaten at 5-0 after beating the Jets Monday. Will Aaron Rodgers be able to thwart the standout Houston D, or will Adrian Foster run roughshod through the Green Bay line? I've got this figured out and that will get us the win tonight, just like last Sunday night when we took Drew Brees and the Saints (-3.5) over the Chargers and won 31-24!

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 15

DENVER at SAN DIEGO (8:40 p.m. ET): We're sure you noticed the Las Vegas price tag for this prime-time clash went from Chargers being favored by 3 points down to minus 1 ½ points faster than you can say Dan Fouts and now we'll see if that "smart money" was right! The Broncos' only other MNF appearance this year was that disaster in Atlanta in Week 2 when QB Manning aired three INTs in the game's first eight-plus minutes and so fully expect stronger start here but ground game's gotta get movin' (see 20 carries for 70 yards against New England last Sunday) and those three lost fumbles were absolute killers. Hey, the Chargers have the right to moan-and-groan about the zebras last week in that 31-24 loss in New Orleans but best game plan for HC Turner's team here is to let RB Mathews (12 carries for 80 yards versus the Saints) get loosened up with 25 or so "touches" and see where that takes 'em!

 Hurley Is 4-1-1 On Monday Night
And Ready To Win The AFC WEST SHOOTOUT!

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
When the schedule was released, this was one of the more highly anticipated Monday matchups, with both teams expected to battle it out for the AFC West title.Both the Broncos and Chargers lost winnable games last week and should be fired up for this division showdown. With Peyton Manning vs. Phillip Rivers, get ready for a wild one Monday night. I have the real picture on who's ready to play, and who's ready to pay.   Just $20 online or call 1-800-323-4453

 

JIM HURLEY'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 10
    1. ALABAMA ... The Tide's outscoring foes by 33 ppg and so maybe three-TD price tag against Mizzou this week is "cheap".
    2. OREGON ... It's a bye week for the Ducks who get road trip to Arizona State next (see Oct. 18th) plus there's three more road games on tap too
    3. SOUTH CAROLINA ... This "Gamecock gauntlet" of tough foes continues with back-to-backers at LSU and Florida these next two weeks.
    4. WEST VIRGINIA ... Heisman Trophy front-runner QB Smith has 0 INTs in 204 pass attempts but will trip to Lubbock this weekend be a bummer?
    5. FLORIDA ... Guess we'll find out who's the real class of the SEC East next weekend when Gators host the SC Gamecocks
    6. KANSAS STATE ... Is it us or does HC Bill Snyder deserve the Coach of the Year award every year?
    7. NOTRE DAME ... Irish has surrendered grand total of 39 points in 5-and-oh start but slowing down Stanford this Saturday won't be easy
    8. OHIO STATE ... Imagine the atmosphere in Happy Valley if the OSU Buckeyes are 8-0 heading into that Oct. 27th tilt?
    9. OREGON STATE ... This year's Beavers already have beaten Wisky, UCLA and Arizona but now no QB Mannion is a real killer
    10. USC ... Let's see if the Troy Boys can continue their climb in the polls as a 20-plus point win at Washington this weekend would certainly help

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