Bulletin Newsletter Volume 28 Issue 3

Volume 28, Issue 3 ~ Saturday, Sept 15 thru Monday, September 17


COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S $64,000 QUESTION THIS WEEKEND – WHAT BIG FAVORITES REALLY HAVE TO BE ON UPSET ALERT THIS MID-SEPTEMEBER WEEKEND?

It’s happened before … and could happen again this Saturday:

College Football big-time betting favorites have crashed-and-burned a couple times already whether it was Houston’s 30-13 season-opening loss to 34 ½-point underdog Texas State back on Labor Day Weekend or last Saturday’s shocker as 29 ½-point pup UL-Monroe stunned than 8th-ranked Arkansas.

The moral of thee story is don’t get too comfy if/when you’re a multi-touchdown betting favorite in this here-and-now world of College Football and so here’s a few teams that may need to make sure it gets a wake-up call before it’s too late …

FLORIDA STATEhas been installed as a hefty 28-point betting favorite against ACC rival Wake Forest and before you start giving us chapter-and-verse comments about how good this Seminoles team is consider that Florida State’s lost to Wake Forest four times in the past six years (although never as much as a 9 ½-point favorite).

The Sems may be sitting pretty there with a cozy #5 ranking in this week’s current Associated Press Top 25 poll but exactly who have they played through the first two weeks … Murray State and Savannah State (and that latter game went halfway into the third quarter before getting called by bad weather)?

Hey, FSU, don’t sleep on the WF Demon Deacons here!

And should 24-point favorite NEBRASKA have anything to worry about for its Saturday high-noon ET showdown against Arkansas State?

No doubt you know by now that Cornhuskers QB Taylor Martinez completed only 4-of-14 passes after halftime in last weekend’s 36-30 loss at UCLA and the Big Red critics were all over his case the past few days. Makes for a wonderful on-campus existence for Martinez, doesn’t it?

Now here comes a Sun Belt Conference team with an explosive quarterback in senior Ryan Aplin and keep in mind the Red Wolves slinger already has thrown for 606 yards with 4 TDs and just 1 INT through early-season tilts against Oregon and Memphis.

Finally, let’s take a quickie peek at KANSAS STATE: The Wildcats are 28-point betting favorites for their under-the-lights clash against North Texas this weekend.

Okay, so if you know anything about K-State boss-man Bill Snyder than you know his club rarely (if ever) loses these type games but consider this: The ‘Cats come off an emotionally-charged 52-13 win against Miami last weekend in Manhattan and on deck is a road game at Big 12 superpower Oklahoma – so can’t you make at least a smallish case for Kansas State having to be on “upset alert” here?

Note that North Texas already went into Death Valley this year and lost 41-14 to mighty LSU but perhaps that experience alone will help here. So stay awake, K-State!


 

Jim Hurley, president of Jim Hurley's Network, the most comprehensive organization in sports handicapping since 1985, is a master of all facets of handicapping, combining his own astute betting knowledge and instincts with a team approach that incorporates the ideas of the best handicapping people in the country. . Let him show you just how much you can make betting College and NFL Football.

PREMIER COLLEGE TRIPLE PLAY

Lookahead and letdown games abound in the 3rd full Saturday of the season.

Jim Hurley’s Network® is uniquely set up to take advantage of these situations.

Last year our first Triple Play of the year was a resounding sweep as
Notre Dame (+5) beat Michigan State 31 to 13, Louisville (+5.5) beat Kentucky 24 to 17
and Utah (+4) blew out BYU 54 to 10.

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NCAA PREVIEWS

Get all of the NCAA Football Winners for Saturday, September 15th and the remainder of this 2012 season when you check in with Jim Hurley either online at www.jimhurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 after 11 a.m. on game-day mornings and after 1 p.m. ET for the weeknight games.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

VIRGINIA TECH at PITTSBURGH (12 p.m. ET): No doubt that the wheels already have come off regarding these 2012 Pitt Panthers who have been beaten by Youngstown State and Cincinnati right out of the proverbial chute but can first-year boss Chryst turn the beat around here against the 10-point fav VT Hokies? Note that HC Beamer’s guys have not always looked sharp so far on offense despite the 31 ppg average and QB Thomas (442 yards passing with 4 TDs and 0 INTs) still hasn’t gotten into a real nice rhythm despite those numbers. Gotta believe Thomas hands the ball off plenty here against moribund Pittsburgh defense that ranks – get this – 95th among FBS schools while allowing 231.5 yards a game. Ouch!

USC at STANFORD (7:30 p.m. ET): Major hype fest for this Pac-12 bash at “The Farm” and second-ranked Men of Troy really has the offense perking with QB Barkley fresh off a six-TD game against game Syracuse at the Jersey Meadowlands last week but it’s WR Woods (200 all-purpose yards in that clash including a nifty 76-run on a reverse) that has demonized the Cardinal in the past as he has 21 catches for 313 yards and 4 TDs in two prior games versus Stanford … wow! If Stanford’s gonna steal this one than RB Taylor must shine and note he’s rushed for 99 and 104 yards in past two duels with Troy Boys and should be ready to tote the mail 25-or-so times here.

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Alabama at Arkansas 3:30pm (CBS)            Virginia at Georgia Tech  3:30pm (ESPNU)
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USC at Stanford 7:30pm (Fox)        Michigan State at Notre Dame 8pm (ABC)
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BYU at UTAH (10 p.m. ET): Annual Bee Hive State battle has some major storylines here as Utes QB Wynn has quit the sport after another shoulder injury last week at Utah State plus there’s this little revenge factor going here as BYU champing at the bit after getting walloped 54-10 at home last year. Now, 2-and-oh BYU Coogs looking to make amends in the role of road favorite and note last year’s team committed a season-high seven turnovers in that ugly loss and so expect energetic QB Nelson to remind everyone to “hold on tight”. Did you know that BYU has lost four of its last five games in Salt Lake City and that includes a 17-16 loss two years ago and a 52-21 setback in 2004?

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE (6 p.m. ET): In case you had lost count, Florida’s won seven in a row SU (straight-up) in this rivalry game and you gotta go back to 2004 and the infamous Zook Era to find the last Tennessee won in this series (see 30-28 Vols). Now, Neyland Stadium will be rockin’ big-time but will the gang dressed in orange give Rocky Top fans something to shout about? Keep in mind that Tennessee WR Hunter – who tore up his knee in this game last year and missed most of the 2011 season – enters this SEC bash with 17 catches and three TDs already in early-season romps over N.C. State and Georgia State. If Hunter makes hay on a couple of those bubble screen pass plays, than the Gators may pay!

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NFL WEEK 2 PREVIEWS

Get all of Jim Hurley’s NFL Week 2 winners when you check with him on game day Sunday after 11 a.m. ET and after 1 p.m. ET on Monday for the MNF game either online at www.jimhurley.com or at the exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

TAMPA BAY at NY GIANTS (1 p.m. ET): The defending Super Bowl champs are “on the ropes” already following that season-opening 24-17 home loss to 3 ½-point pup Dallas and it’s tough to say what galled Giants HC Coughlin the most: Was it the shabby play of his secondary, all those drops by WR Cruz or the fact NYG’s offensive line caved in at all the wrong times? Here in this gotta-have-it home tilt against a Tampa Bay bunch that completely stifled Carolina QB Newton last week, the Jints need a true pick-me-up in the ground game and so the RB Bradshaw/Wilson combo must crack the century mark between ‘em … or else!

OAKLAND at MIAMI (1 p.m. ET): Sure hope the Raiders fine-tuned that long-snapping part of their game following the mess in last Monday’s 22-14 loss to San Diego. Okay, so not that the Oakland offense did enough to win that game anyway with RB McFadden rushing for mere 32 yards on 15 pops (yes, we know he had 15 receptions too!) and so the game plan for the visiting side here is to get McFadden more running room on the perimeter and keep QB Palmer mistake-free (see zero INTs against the Bolts). Hey, Miami fans, sit tight and hope wet-behind-the-ears QB Tannehill learns to throw the ball over oncoming linemen as last week’s ugly 30-10 loss in Houston featured a batch of battered balls with two of ‘em getting picked off by the aggressive Texans defense

NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Few analysts can spot mismatches that will affect the final score like my Network can. Our database has the info to predict to within a few points what the final will be. In 2011, our computers forecast a low scoring Redskins-Cowboys game. When the totals line came out at 45, we jumped in with both fists. The resulting 18-16 final was easily under. We have a similar situation lined up here today.  Just $50

DETROIT at SAN FRANCISCO (8:25 p.m. ET):Now that the Niners flexed their muscles and showed who was king of Lambeau Field with last week’s 30-22 win at 6-point favorite Green Bay, HC Harbaugh’s gang must “play it again” and that means LBs Willis and Bowman must be prime-time studs against active Lions QB Stafford who was cool as ice in leading game-winning touchdown against St. Loo last Sunday at Ford Field. Stafford – who threw for 355 yards in that 27-23 come-from-behind win – did chuck three first-half picks in that game and opportunistic SF defense quite capable of field-flipping plays here in this NBC nationally-televised tilt. Key for the host Niners here: Keep QB Smith on his two feet ‘cause the guy is more than just a “game manager” as evidenced by sharp 20-of-26, 211-yard, two-TD game showing a week ago.

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IS IT AN NFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW ON SUNDAY NIGHT?
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49’ers (-6.5)  (NBC-TV 8:25pm ET)

The 49’ers defense controlled Packer QB and MVP Aaron Rodgers last week in a 30-22 game we saw coming, making Frisco a big play as a 5-point dog. This week the ‘Niners will be up against Lion’s gunslinger Matthew Stafford, who after 3 picks, engineered the final winning drive in their non-cover vs. the Rams 27-23.  There are solid teams looking to go deep into the NFC Playoffs, but one will have the upper hand Sunday night, and my Network has spotted which side it is.

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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17

DENVER at ATLANTA (8:40 p.m. ET): No question that Broncos’ born-again QB Manning was all the rage in NFL Week 1 action but how about some applause for Falcons slinger Ryan? The much-maligned and still-young signal-caller threw for 299 yards and he teamed up neatly with WR Jones (6 catches for 108 yards and two TDs) in that rollicking 40-24 win at 2 ½-point dog Kansas City. Looks like everyone is expecting a shootout here as “totals” price rose from an opening line of 49 points to 51 ½ but extra day for both teams might have helped the defenses as much (or more) than the offenses. Think about it! One major key for Mr. Manning (253 yards passing and two TDs in the 31-19 win/cover against Pittsburgh last Sunday night) is the Broncos do need to chew up some ground yards and last week’s 94-yard rushing performance ain’t gonna be good enough here … trust us!

Monday, Sept. 17 AIR RAID IN ATLANTA

 

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NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING TRENDS
(All figures below are against the spread)

Alabama is 35-18 overall since early ‘08
Boise State is 13-4 vs. non-conference foes
Connecticut is 3-8-1 away
Florida State is 2-6 vs. Wake Forest
Houston is 1-5 as dogs
Louisville is 11-19 at home since 2007
Michigan State is 20-12-2 as favorites
Missouri is 18-10 vs. non-league opponents
Notre Dame is 7-3 as an underdog side
Ohio State is 19-11-2 as chalk sides
SMU is 9-19 as hosts
Stanford is 17-9-1 vs. fellow Pac-12 teams
Tennessee is 3-6-1 vs. Florida
Toledo is 11-5 in conference play
Western Michigan is 3-7-1 in non-league action
Wisconsin is 8-4 as double-digit favs

NFL WEEK 2 BETTING TRENDS
(All figures below are against the spread)

Arizona is 6-14-1 away
Buffalo is 5-0 vs. Kansas City
Cincinnati is 10-15 at home
Dallas is 4-15-1 as favorites
Detroit was 3-6 away last year
Jacksonville is 6-13-1 vs. Houston
New Orleans is 7-3 at Carolina
NY Giants were 9-4-1 outside NFC East last year
NY Jets are 7-2-1 in road-opening games
Philadelphia is 0-3 in recent home openers
St. Louis is 4-10-1 as dogs
Tennessee is 0-5 vs. San Diego

JIM HURLEY’S COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 10

1. ALABAMA
2. USC
3. LSU
4. OREGON
5. OKLAHOMA
6. GEORGIA
7. FLORIDA STATE
8. SOUTH CAROLINA
9. MICHIGAN STATE
10. WEST VIRGINIA

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