Network Notebook: Handicapping after MLB Trades
HOW TO HANDICAP MLB TEAMS AFTER A BIG MID-SEASON TRADE
Headlines the past few days have already been full of news about important trades in Major League Baseball (and, unfortunately, injuries!). Properly handicapping how all the "new faces in new places" will perform is vital if you want to keep making money as a baseball bettor.
JIM HURLEY'S first key piece of advice is not to overrate the impact of a smart acquisition. Even if a team is going to improve because they've filled a need...baseball is the kind of sport that "filling a need" is only worth a few games over 10 weeks.
*If the new key player is a hitter, he's only going to come up 4-5 times a game, and there won't always be scoring opportunities with runners on base.
*If the new key player is a starting pitcher, he's only going to throw every fifth day, and will still be at the mercy of run support and bullpen backup.
*If the new key player is a closer, he's only going to throw in the ninth inning when his team has a tight lead.
So...account for the improvement...but account REASONABLY for the improvement rather than assuming the team is about to run roughshod over the league.
If a team is going to get worse, they may not drop off as badly as you were expecting. The replacement starter may be roughly league average...which is good enough to plug the gap. Heck, the new starter may be a youngster ready to show the world he belongs and there's no drop-off at all! Don't assume that any team trading for prospects is going in the tank.
The second key point is to remember how ballparks influence players. If a slugger is joining a team that plays its home games in a good pitchers' park, he may not lift the scoring all that much. If he's coming from a good hitter's park, he may be part illusion to begin with! If a good pitcher is acquired by a team that plays in a hitter's park, he may get roughed up at first until he adjusts to how he attacks the strike zone.
This was a bigger issue in the past when general managers (and dugout managers) were surprisingly ignorant of park effects. There are still poorly run teams where this is a problem.
The final point today from JIM HURLEY is that it's smart to focus on how "the market" is rating the new lineups. This will help you see when over-adjustments have been made. Arizona just shored up a weakness by acquiring a hitting start. Is the market adding 30-40 cents when the adjustment should only be 10 cents? Is Jose Quintana of the Cubs (after the trade with the White Sox) going to be priced like he's Clayton Kershaw, or will the lines be realistic? More trades are coming. Watch line moves and market adjustments very closely for all teams involved in transactions between now and the trade deadline.
NETWORK'S unique TEAM HANDICAPPING approach is perfectly suited for situations like this.
*Our SCOUTS and SOURCES let us know how players (and teammates) are responding to trades...and whether the mindset of the clubhouse has changed for the worse or better.
*Our STATHEADS know the numerical value of each hitter, and immediately gauge the likely production impact of each lineup adjustment.
*Our COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS with their STATE-OF-THE-ART simulations adjust for ballpark effects in multiple ways to really pin down the new reality. They also turn those scoreboard projections into moneyline equivalents to find the best betting value.
*Our TREND masters have a sharp eye for finding the handful of teams who do go in the tank in the second half of the season...and know when that type of team is due for a horrible series or week.
*Our WISE GUY CONNECTIONS know what the smart money is betting and why. We use that information to confirm our own picks, and to open doors to new riches.
It all comes together to create BIG, JUICY WINNERS for clients of JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK! You always can purchase our BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about longterm packages or early-bird football, please call us in the office during normal business hours at 1-800-323-4453.
Back with you Friday with a series preview of what's shaping up to be a thrilling National League showdown between the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks. Two very good teams just got better with recent trades! We'll continue previewing big baseball matchups until football gets started. The NFL Preseason is now just a few weeks away as the summer continues to fly by.
Have you been losing on your own? Why don't you trade up to A PROVEN WINNER? You know you're going to GET THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK!