NFL Win Projection Totals
COMPETITIVE TIGHT DIVISIONAL RACES ACCORDING TO MARKET’S PROJECTED VICTORY COUNT
Today we take a look at the NFL Regular Season Win Totals to get you ready for Thursday Night’s Green Bay/Seattle game on NBC.
Who are the AFC powers going to be according to the marketplace? Same old suspects, with Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos…and Tom Brady and his New England Patriots well clear of the field in regular season win projections.
In the NFC, defending champion Seattle has the best number in the conference. But, four different teams are projected to double digit victories. And, market estimates are always closer to .500 than reality usually sees because they have to price in the percentage potential for key injuries or other surprise developments. Conference champions usually win 12-13 games. It’s rare for markets to post numbers that high because you can’t know in advance who will have injury luck and inordinate good fortune in close games.
New England: 10.5 to 11
Miami: 7.5 to 8
NY Jets: 7 to 7.5
Buffalo: 6.5 to 7
We’ll be posting both a high and low for most teams over these next two days, because different stores have different numbers involving baseball style juice. You might be able to bet New England Over 10.5 at -130 in one place, or Under 11 -140 at another. We’ll give you the ranges. Clearly, this isn’t a division that’s supposed to celebrate the greatness of pro football! Miami is a slight underdog to reach the .500 mark, while the Jets and Bills are even further back. And that’s despite the advantage of those teams getting four games against each other. The market is telling you that only an injury to Brady could make this an exciting race.
Cincinnati: 8.5 to 9
Pittsburgh: 8.5 to 9
Cleveland: 6.5 to 7
There’s an interesting mix of respect and skepticism involving the top three teams in the North. They’re all obviously “playoff caliber,” given that Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been to recent Super Bowls with their current quarterbacks…and Cincinnati has some January experience too. But, all three teams have strikes against them that keep them out of the championship discussion. Cincinnati laid a monster egg last year losing big at home to Wildcard San Diego. You figure at least one of those teams will get to 10 wins. Can you figure out who it’s going to be?
Indianapolis: 9 to 9.5
Tennessee: 7.5 to 8
Houston: 7.5 to 8
Jacksonville: 5 to 5.5
An interesting mix here…because there’s actually been some respect for the bottom three teams to be “better than originally thought.” Jacksonville is expected to move forward from “worst in the NFL” as they respond to new coaching (and perhaps their star QB of the future in Blake Bortles once he cracks the lineup). Houston is seen as a bounce-back team after their 2014 debacle. Tennessee is a nice sleeper. Handicappers who can untangle the muddled range around “7.5 to 8” in the AFC will have a leg up on the rest of the market.
San Diego: 8 to 8.5
Kansas City: 7.5 to 8
Oakland: 4.5 to 5
Three teams from this division made the AFC playoffs last year. And, three would have made the Final Four if Kansas City hadn’t blown a huge lead to Indianapolis. The market expects the Chiefs to fall back to earth because they caught so many breaks last year. Denver is still well clear of the field. Oakland is apparently set to replace Jacksonville as “worst in the NFL.” We’re hearing different things about San Diego. Some sharps are betting on regression. But, others feel this is a very good fit between quarterback (Philip Rivers) and offensive schematic.
While this is still clearly the inferior of the two NFL conferences, there’s potential for a very exciting Wildcard race featuring dangerous teams…and if either New England or Denver play to their full capabilities, the AFC could re-take the Lombardi Trophy in early February.
NY Giants: 7.5 to 8
Dallas: 7 to 7.5
This division was initially seen as being more dynamic and competitive when summer prices first came out. But, the Giants struggled through August trying to incorporate a West Coast offense, Washington struggled with RGIII because he still isn’t moving with confidence on his rebuilt wheels, and Dallas struggled because Tony Romo hasn’t fully recovered from back surgery. Philadelphia nudged up a bit just by default (since they’ll have SIX games against teams who are quickly losing respect!). The market has priced in some regression for the Eagles because they’ll likely fall back to earth in turnover differential (Nick Foles had an amazing TD/INT ration that will be tough to duplicate). There will be a lot of media drama in this division if nothing else!
Green Bay: 10 to 10.5
Chicago: 8.5 to 9
Detroit: 8 to 8.5
Minnesota: 6.5 to 7
Green Bay might have been a 12-win team last year if Aaron Rodgers had stayed healthy. And, they’d probably be priced at 11 or more above if anyone could guarantee he’ll play all 16 games in 2014. Some good storylines developing behind the Packers. Chicago took a step forward last year on offense, and could become a serious threat if they upgrade their defense. Detroit made a coaching change. If that roster can ever cut down on dumb mistakes, the Lions are an immediate force to be reckoned with. Minnesota has impressed many sharps during August, as their win total and Power Rating has inched forward. It’s not the NFC West yet…but the smartest money in the marketplace is showing respect to this group.
New Orleans: 10 to 10.5
Tampa Bay: 7
If there was one thing that almost every sharp agreed on, it was that Carolina was going to fall back to earth with a thud this year. They lost their top receivers. They were fortunate in close games last year. They had a great turnover differential. And, THEN, Cam Newton cracked a rib! New Orleans is positioned to storm to the top of the South and re-take the divisional crown. Atlanta doesn’t look to have solved some of last year’s bad developments. Sharps are sour on them, but sweet on Lovie Smith and the Bucs. Tampa Bay is likely to have one of the best defenses in the NFC this year, which automatically gives them a shot to rise to the .500 mark.
San Francisco: 10 to 10.5
Arizona: 7.5 to 8
St. Louis: 7.5 to 8
Sharps are paying very close attention to the top two teams in the West. Seattle is in the classic “Super Bowl Letdown” spot, and may have trouble finding peak intensity every week. You’ll recall that they were caught flat footed a few times last year when they got ahead of themselves emotionally. Does this team have the maturity to repeat? San Francisco may be imploding before our eyes, with a struggling offense, off-the-field drama, and a move to a new stadium that’s becoming a comedy movie because the turf was so bad. Coach/Players/Ownership all have to be on the same page! St. Louis only took a minor hit when Sam Bradford was lost for the season to a knee injury because the market didn’t respect him much anyway. Arizona would have been a more popular darkhorse if they had a better quarterback.
LET THE GAMES BEGIN! You’ll be able to purchase game day BEST BETS in the NFL and college football all season long right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about seasonal packages, or combination packages for football and baseball, call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453.
A great mix of pro and college action is on the calendar the next few days. Here’s this week’s NOTEBOOK schedule…
Thursday: NFL TV Preview…Green Bay at Seattle (pro season begins!)
Friday: Early College Preview…USC at Stanford
Saturday: College Football TV Preview…Michigan State at Oregon
Sunday: NFL Sunday Night TV Preview…Indianapolis at Denver
Monday: NFL Monday Night TV Preview…San Diego at Arizona
Serious bettors will build some bankroll Wednesday Night with baseball…then it’s WALL-TO-WALL FOOTBALL through another blockbuster weekend. Be sure you GET ALL THE MONEY with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!
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