The Giants and Tim Lincecum
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS IN FIRST PLACE, BUT FORMER ACE TIM LINCECUM STILL STRUGGLING
A few years ago he was the toast of the coast. Tim Lincecum was a young phenom who was going to rule the National League for as long as he wanted. His unique delivery, unique mindset, and high strikeout rate seemed ideally suited to a long term career in a city that loves what he brings to the table.
Something went wrong beginning in 2012…and hasn’t rectified itself yet. Here are Tim Lincecum’s numbers over the past several seasons so you can get a sense of the drop off.
TIM LINCECUM SINCE 2008
2008: 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.5 K-Rate, 6.7 IP per game
2009: 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.4 K-Rate, 7.0 IP per game
2010: 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.8 K-Rate, 6.4 IP per game
2011: 2.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.1 K-Rate, 6.6 IP per game
2012: 5.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.2 K-Rate, 5.6 IP per game
2013: 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.8 K-Rate, 6.2 IP per game
2014: 4.74 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9.5 K-Rate, 5.5 IP per game
That’s Cy Young caliber pitching in 2008 and 2009 (and arguably 2011). Then, a drop to what was still excellence in 2010 and 2011. He wasn’t a one-year flash in the pan. Even though he was gradually trending in the wrong direction in K-Rate. There was nothing about 2011 to suggest that the honeymoon was over. He was going to be the face of the Giants. If the Giants kept competing for championships, he was going to be one of the faces of the league.
2012 was a disaster by his standards. He stayed in the rotation all season…but clearly at the caliber of a back end guy who would typically be replaced without such a strong prior track record. He did push things back to acceptable in 2013, though not worth his contract. Thus far in 2014, there’s been more bad news than good news. Going 5.5 innings with a 1.58 WHIP isn’t tolerated for very long at this level. He’s lucky his ERA isn’t worse given the number of runners he’s been putting on base.
San Francisco is still in first place because things are going so well for the rest of the rotation. Let’s run those numbers…
SAN FRANCISCO’S 2014 ROTATION (ranked by ERA)
Tim Hudson: 2.09 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 5.7 K-Rate
Madison Bumgarner: 3.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 10.0 K-Rate
Ryan Vogelsong: 3.62 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.1 K-Rate
Matt Cain: 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.5 K-Rate
Tim Lincecum: 4.74 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 9.5 K-Rate
Ryan Vogelsong got things figured out! Madison Bumgarner has a questionable WHIP, but is making up for that with extra strikeouts. That’s a rotation that can make the playoffs even if Lincecum is just kind of there. Come playoff time, you only need four starters anyway. The Giants aren’t panicking by any means. But, they’re surely imagining how DOMINANT this team would be if Lincecum ever found his form from a few years ago.
In handicapping terms, should you be betting against Lincecum and on everyone else? The problem with that approach is that San Francisco has been giving Lincecum good run support. They’re 6-3 in the games he’s started. And, the market no longer prices him like an ace (and hasn’t for quite awhile). The Giants may be such a value team this year (up over 10 units through Wednesday action) that they can overcome poor back end pitching. We strongly suggest monitoring Linecum’s game-by-game stats. If his ERA starts rising to match his poor WHIP, then he’ll either be a “fade” or an “over” pitcher for sharp handicappers.
JIM HURLEY keeps close tabs on all 150-plus rotation starters in Major League Baseball. That’s why he’s able to win so consistently from year to year. You can purchase Friday’s best baseball right here at the website with your credit card. Twins/Giants might be in the mix. NETWORK has a full 15-game evening slate to consider for the very best sides and totals. All of Jim's picks are available here online
If you have any questions, call during normal business hours at 1-800-323-4453. Don’t forget to check on combination packages that also include the NBA Playoffs (Where we are currently 6-0 in the conference Finals!) and THE BELMONT, the final jewel in horse racing’s TRIPLE CROWN.
NBA Playoff previews return Saturday with Game Three of Indiana/Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. Sunday brings Game Three of San Antonio/Oklahoma City out West. We’ll go game-by-game until both of those series end. Baseball will start to play a more prominent role in our daily reports when the hoops schedule calms down.
Tim Lincecum may be fading with time…but JIM HURLEY is better than ever with a resume featuring more than 25 years of customer satisfaction. Be sure you GET THE MONEY every day with JIM HURLEY’S NETWORK!
Today’s Hot Plays
Hurley Thurs. Best Builds Weekend Bankroll
Jim Hurley Says, “Start Building Your Weekend Bankroll A Day Early With My Thursday Best Bets And Exotics.”
Network MLB Thursday Computer Cruncher
There is one angle that rates a team at the 80% win expectancy, and another stat that points to a certain pitcher having a 77% chance of him getting the win, and BOTH point to the SAME TEAM...which is the UNDERDOG.
Network Thursday Afternoon Getaway Day Play
$10.00Purchase this nowThursday Afternoon’s Getaway Special Is one of the the Strongest plays yet! Win it early plus bonus underdog.
Jim Hurley Parlay of the Pre-Season
$20.00Purchase this nowUse these games to double your bankroll...then at least double your entire season’s profits! Remember, the green of August is the Gold of December. Build football profits in Jim Hurley’s Pre-Season. Three games Thursday, and I’m looking at two that I know will cover.
Jim Hurley Saratoga Service
$20.00Purchase this nowSARATOGA. "Graveyard of Favorites" for losers..."Longshot Heaven" for winners. And the difference is INFORMATION. Jim Hurley’s Network Has The Information!
Jim Hurley Preseason All Money Play of the Week
When you’re a Network & you know what’s going on, the Pre-Season is found money. Cash my August All-Money Play of Week, because we know who is ready for a prime effort. Plus bonus baseball.
Network Saturday Night NFL Moneymakers
Jim Hurley Explodes Again In Preseason Week 2! I can’t get over how good these games are - and how BAD these lines are. But I think you spell it G-I-F-T