Baseball Oddsmakers Slow to React in 2013
VEGAS ODDSMAKERS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO REACT
TO SEVERAL MAJOR MLB STORIES IN 2013
You often hear sports betting old-timers tell you that Major League Baseball is very tough to beat. The schedule is a grind. There’s too much math involved (old-timers love using “gut feel” and hate math). And, even if you pick a nice underdog winner, the ace reliever is going to come in and blow the game anyway.
It’s a shame baseball skeptics are missing out on the RICHES that could have been won this season just by recognizing breaking stories as they were happening. The market has been INCREDIBLY slow to adjust to all of the following (unit results through the games of Thursday):
*PITTSBURGH +26 units
The Pirates have a history of starting strong before fading. This time, they seem to be for real! Oddsmakers didn’t give them enough respect during their annual solid start…and really didn’t give them enough respect during their 4-1 series domination of the St. Louis Cardinals. Just recognizing that the Pirates had made smart moves with their pitching staff as their hitters matured could have led to a huge boost to your bankroll all by itself.
*CHICAGO WHITE SOX -26 units
Many negatives came together at just the right time to create a perfect storm of fade potential. The offense was bad. The pitching was overrated. And, apparently chemistry is horrible because the team will go into the tank for days at a time at the drop of a hat. The Chi-Sox are in a relatively weak division, and still keep getting crushed. The AL Central race has picked up the pace lately…but some of that is just the other teams grabbing easy wins over the Sox!
*LA ANGELS -24 units
Oddsmakers tend to fall in love with big market teams…on the assumption that money buys wins. Didn’t they ever read “Moneyball?” The LA Angels have spent a fortune building an offense of guys who padded their stats in better times for hitters…and pitchers who have trouble staying healthy. And, as this disaster was unfolding…the market kept pricing the Angels as a top team even when they obviously weren’t any more. Skeptics cleaned up, and even cleaned up some more this past week when the Angels kept handing away games in Texas!
*SAN FRANCISCO -21 units
Wow…this really came from out of the blue. San Francisco still had great pitching…and wasn’t supposed to fall off the map like this. Turns out the pitching wasn’t so great…and last year’s World Champions turned into one of the worst teams in the league with little warning. We’re not suggesting anyone should have seen this coming. But, the early pitching problems were meaningful…and this was a fade bandwagon you could have jumped on in time to score several big winners.
*CLEVELAND +17 units
Does Terry Francona know how to win? The Indians purchased some offense in the offseason, brought in a proven winner at manager, then caught a few breaks with their starting rotation. Suddenly, the team is well-positioned in the Wildcard race and breathing down the necks of the Detroit Tigers in the battle for the AL Central. Another example where signs of progress were followed by great results once things started to click. This is why it pays to watch games and read box scores! If you’re reading the first few chapters in baseball, you’ll be ahead of the oddsmakers in knowing how the book ends.
*MILWAUKEE -17 units
Things just keep getting worse and worse for the Brew Crew. The pitching was a disaster to start the season…and then Ryan Braun finally got his come-uppance for past indiscretions. Will he be able to hit clean in future seasons? Tough year to struggle in the NL Central, because you have so many games against the Cards, Reds, and Pirates.
*WASHINGTON -16 units
At least oddsmakers adjusted faster here than they did with the LA Angels. But, this is certainly one of the surprises stories of 2013. Washington was supposed to be building a dynasty, which was why they could afford to be conservative with Steven Strasburg last season. Now, they won’t even make the playoffs and have to figure out how they’re going to fix a dormant offense.
*BOSTON +15 units
Remember when Boston was beginning a multi-year rebuilding period because the franchise was in shambles? That was quick! Brains in management plus getting rid of poisons in the clubhouse helped get everyone on the right track. The AL East is brutal…so there’s no guarantee that Boston can keep grinding out a profit at this level. They certainly overachieved market expectations to a significant degree before the All-Star Break.
JIM HURLEY knows it’s his job to stay ahead of the markets year round in all sports. That’s why you should continue to link up with NETWORK for baseball bankroll builders as you get ready for the coming football season. You can purchase daily BEST BETS here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions, call us in the office at 1-800-323-4453.
We’ll run our first NFL Divisional Preview here in the NOTEBOOK on Sunday as we study the NFC East to get you ready for Dallas/Miami in the Hall-of-Fame game. We’ll run those on game days through the first two weekends…knocking out all eight divisions in very short order. We hope you enjoyed our summer series of college conference previews. Please check the archives if you missed out on those.
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