Horses To Watch
JOHN PIESEN'S "HORSES TO WATCH LIST"
Selected List Of Horses Ready To Win Now
With John, It's not Horses to Watch...But Winners To Watch
NOTE: Below is a list of horses that have run recently at Aqueduct Race Track and Gulfstream Park that have indicated they are ready to win soon under the conditions noted. You should bet these horses the next two times they run, as long as they do so under the conditions noted and stop on them after they win or fail twice.
BOJAN - The lower level claiming colt paid instant dividends to trainer David Jacobsen when he faced same 7.5K group he’d last faced on January 14. The consistent 5-year old son of Wildcat heir ran his career mark to 17-5-4-3 with a daylight victory in the 6 furlong dash as he tracked the pace and drew clear in the lane. Should win again soon sprinting vs 7.5-12.5K company.
CAUGHT BY YOU - Promising effort by the NYSB daughter of Stanislavsky as she drew off by a wide margin to beat restricted MSW rivals in last. She broke sharply out of the gate, was briefly headed at the quarter pole and then under urging retook the lead and drew away. Trainer Chris Englehart is having a strong meet so there is no reason this 3-year old filly won’t go through state bred conditions rapidly. Stay with her.
ECSTATIC CAT - It was a sharp debut effort by the NYSB gelding in his most recent. It took the Juan Serey trained son of Tomorrow’s cat a while to get to the races but the 4-year old could make up the time quickly. In the debut he broke greenly in the restricted MSW affair but once brought under control commenced a late rally to get the place even while drifting in and out a few times. He was beaten less than a length and was clear of the show horse so the necessary experience and perhaps blinkers should help. Will break through soon.
LE BERNARDIN - Solid front running effort got the job done in most recent as the son of Bernardini got his initial win by holding off the 3-10 favorite in a MSW sprint. The Kieran McLaughlin trainee quickly grabbed the lead, moved to the rail and dug in when the favorite moved to him. The winner managed a ¾ length victory in solid race horse time as it was another 9½ lengths back to the show horse. Look for this well bred 3-year old colt to keep winning.
NETZEL - The 4-year old Successful Appeal colt made his first start in over a year last time out and while no match for the drop down winner, tracked the pace setter while in second and dug in to hold the place spot in the late going of the 10K sprint. Trainer Chris Englehart has gotten him back in form and what was produced in the return race should set it up for a sprint win soon vs 10-12.5K rivals.
POWER KING - The bottom level claiming colt made it two place finishes in a row as he closed rapidly through the lane and came up a bit short of catching the wire-to-wire winner. The David Jacobsen trainee was off at the back of the pack in the 6 furlong 7.5K test, traveled 3 wide around the turn and was strongest inside the sixteenth pole. The 4-year old was haltered out of the race by new trainer Rudy Rodriguez who has a solid ratio first off the claim so don’t miss the next one.
QUIET EYES - Drop from MSW to 35K maiden claimers did the trick for this 3-year old son of Midas Eyes. Even more impressive was the fact that the colt changed tactics from an off-the-pace style in his previous three starts to a press and pop style that saw him take command at the quarter pole and draw off by 8½ lengths in 1:11... which was 7 ticks faster than an older MSW winner earlier in the day. The NYSB runner should win right back facing restricted entry level allowance foes.
SENSATIONAL SLAM - The 4-year old claiming colt broke alertly and was taken back a bit off the pace in a 6 furlong 20K event in most recent. He continued to track 4 wide throughout, moved up in the lane and continued to gain steadily before settling for the show spot, beaten 2 lengths. He entered the NW2L test off a prior win and with a better trip beats the same or slightly better for new trainer Chris Englehart who took the colt from Jason Service.
TWO SEVENTEEN - The lightly raced son of Thunder Gulch settled for the place spot for the second straight time vs entry level allowance/75K optional claimers in last. The Bruce Levine trained colt broke his maiden at a mile and seventy yards three back and in his last pair split a front running try and an off the pace move and managed to get a significant piece in each. Those different style maneuvers off produce a solid following effort so jump on this guy to get his allowance level or a high open claiming win soon.
THE ROAD TO THE DERBY...THIS IS "MY TIME" TO WIN
I MEAN...JUST LOOK AT WHAT I'VE DONE THE LAST THREE WEEKENDS...
WITHIN MY TOP 3 CHOICES - 10 DERBY PREP WINNERS FROM 11 RACES - # EXACTAS - 1 TRIFECTA
|M 10||Tampa Bay Derby||Prospective||WIN||$8.20|
|M 3||Gotham Stakes||Hansen||WIN||$3.60||My Adonis||2nd||Exacta||$17.60|
|John Battaglia Stakes||III Conceived||2nd||Exacta||$36.00||State of Play||WIN||$6.00||Dynamical||3rd||Trifecta||$137.40|
|F 26||Fountain of Youth||Union Rags||WIN||$4.40|
|F 25||Risen Star Stakes||El Padrino||WIN||$3.60||2nd Choice|
|F20||Southwest Stakes Div I||Castaway||WIN||$15.40||3rd Choice|
|Southwest Stakes Div II||Secret Circle||WIN||$3.20|
|F 19||San Vicente Stakes||Drill||WIN||$9.60|
|F 18||El Camino Real Derby||Lucky Chappy||2nd||Exacta||$38.80||Daddy Nose Best||WIN||$10.20|
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AFTERNOON IDOL - The low level maiden claiming gelding was probably best in his most recent and with a repeat can break through next time if kept sprinting vs 12.5K rivals. The David Vance trainee was bumped hard at the break in the 5½ furlong test, pressed the pace and was bumped a second time when engaging the leader on the turn. He was quickly back on stride and continued for the show before being moved up a notch via DQ. Clean trip gets it done sprinting vs the same.
ARSENAL - The 5-year old mare has never run a bad one in her brief 8 race career (8-3-1-3) with only a DQ keeping her from being on the board in all of her tries. In her most recent she faced 10K starter allowance rivals in a 7½ furlong turf test and rallied on the outside into the lane, poked her head in front and drew clear. They right plenty of these starter races here so she’ll have plenty of opportunity to win again soon for trainer Roy Lerman... even if stretched out to a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. Follow closely.
GLAMOUR AND GLORY - The 3-year old filly made too early a move in an entry level starter allowance/optional 50K claimer in most recent and got to the lead before getting caught late. The David Fawkes trainee saved ground along the inside in the mile and a sixteenth turf test, moved to the leader on the backstretch, took over at the top of the lane and gave way grudgingly in the late going. Better timed ride under same conditions get it done next time.
MORIAH RISING - The 3-year old daughter of Pomeroy was most impressive in her career debut as she overcame a sluggish start to come on and catch her 25K maiden claiming rivals. The David Fawkes trainee broke 11th of 12 but quickly rushed up to be a length off the pace at the half mile pole. She tracked the pace along the rail and rallied to get clear in a solid 1:11 4/5. With a good start will win starter allowance or high level open claimer soon. Follow closely.
NACHEZ DAWN - Sometimes they show up right away, which is exactly what this daughter of Indian Charlie did in her debut last time out. The 3-year old was aggressive from the start of the 5 furlong MSW turf test, moved up to battle for the lead on the turn and drew clear late. Bred to carry her speed further the Larry Rivelli trainee should move through allowance ranks quickly. Bet her right back.
SIX PEACES - Trainer George Weaver is steady if not overwhelming with first time starters (14%) so it is notable that this gelded son of Northern Afleet just missed catching the winner when he made his debut in last. The 3-year old was away a step slowly in the 25K maiden claimer yet found a good stride shortly thereafter and continued a sustained rally for the place in the 6 furlong event, finishing 10¼ lengths in front of the show horse in 1:11 flat. Will not be winless long.
SOUTHERN PARKWAY - First try since November at Churchill Downs in most recent was a solid effort by the 3-year old. The George Arnold trained entry level turf gelding was away alertly, willingly stalked the early pace while 3 wide, moved up to poke his head in front inside the sixteenth pole in the one mile event and just failed to last. He definitely needed the race and will conquer the level under the same conditions in next.
SUSIE’S GAL - The veteran mare seems to be finding her best form. Two back she pressed the pace of an 8½ furlong 25K starter allowance and weakened late to be beaten a length for it all. Under the same condition last time she tracked the pace while out in the middle of the course, continued to move up off the turn and though unable to get to the even money winner continued on well to finish 2¼ lengths in front of the show filly. Wins one of these soon.
TOWN FLIRT - Very impressive effort in most recent by this 4-year old filly as she broke her maiden vs special weights in a mile and a sixteenth turf test. The daughter of Speightstown was making her first start since last August at Saratoga, tracked the early pace in second, moved out at the top of the lane and held off a late challenge. Her 1:41 4/5 clocking was only a tick off the time of the same surface and distance a race earlier run by third level allowance runners. This George Weaver trainee wins right back.
WELCOME GUEST - The 3-year old Unbridled’s Song filly looks to be a good one. The Chad Brown trainee missed here by a ½ length in her debut February 4 when she closed willingly at 6 furlongs. Last time she was stretched out to 7½ panels and challenged the pace while 3 wide, took over in the lane and drew clear to win off by 5½ lengths. She won’t be long beating allowance rivals so bet her right back.
WHERE’S THE BABY - The pace was a bit too slow for this rallying MSW gelding, but the David Kassan trainee still drove home for the show in a one mile turf test in his most recent, getting the final quarter in :22 3/5. He was reserved along the rail early, waited to get out and moved strongly in the lane to be beaten a nose for the runner-up slot. Second good effort in a row indicates the maiden breaker comes soon... especially with a quicker pace and additional ground.
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RECENT RUNNERS FROM HORSES TO WATCH...DID YOU HAVE THESE W's?
The Horses To Watch Feature began three weeks ago so it is about time for us to begin seeing those on the list begin to run back.
EXPECTING CASH - Solid effort to track 3 wide and draw clear late... WON - Paid $8.20
NITARA - Connections got much too optimistic and raced her in Grade III Cicada Stakes to no avail. That was above recommended level and probably killed her confidence. Take off list now... NO PLAY
QUEEN’S AWARD - Strong effort fell short as she settled for third in mile starter allowance. Deserves her second chance... SHOW - Paid $12.40
TOWN OF TOWNS - Connections got much too optimistic and raced her in Grade III Cicada Stakes to no avail. That was above recommended level and probably killed her confidence. Take off list now... WON - Paid $8.40
BULL HOLE- Once again showed good speed and determination. Couldn’t quite catch the runaway winner but continued on for second, 7½ lengths in front of the show runner. Beats 10-12.5K foes next time... PLACE - Paid $5.20
UNBRIDLED KAMANCHI - Did not repeat her previous promising performance... and in fact regressed with no excuse... REMOVE FROM LIST NOW
BIRDWAY - Raced above recommended level and distance yet showed speed before faltering. Deserves another chance if dropped back to correct level...NO PLAY
ANGEL DREAMS - Flashed speed to stretch and then gave way in first try vs entry level starter allowance rivals. Deserves a second chance... LOST
NOTE: You should print this list and keep for your records...plus return to these pages next Wednesday for an updated list.
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