Handicapping the "New" NFL Quarterbacks
Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Handicapping the "New" NFL Quarterbacks
A boatload of backup quarterbacks will be getting starts this week because of injuries or ineffective play from prior starters. They're not "new" in terms of being in the NFL. But, they're "new" because they weren't the planned starters at the beginning of the 2015 season. Here's a listing (barring further developments) going in the order they'll appear in the Nevada Rotation schedules...
Matt Hasselbeck, Indianapolis
Case Keenum, St. Louis
T.J. Yates, Houston
Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia
Brock Osweiler, Denver
Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco (second recent start)
Of course, Tony Romo is returning for the Dallas Cowboys after a long layoff, so you have to handicap that situation as well.
Glancing over the slate, that's about HALF of Sunday's games that won't be matching the guys you've been used to evaluating in recent weeks. How should students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping handle these possible potholes?
KELSO STURGEON always starts with the basics. PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS. Are any of those guys possibly GAMEBREAKERS? Well, they're more likely to break things for their own teams. It would be a surprise if any of those listed men had really huge games this weekend. Most are aiming to be game managers while their teammates do the heavy lifting. Philadelphia will try to ask more of Mark Sanchez because of his experience...and because that offensive style asks a lot of any quarterback. Still, he's a known quantity. Sanchez isn't going to turn into Tom Brady. We've already seen enough of Blaine Gabbert to know he isn't either.
So, right off the bat...we're not looking to bet on any of these guys because of their own production. Should we bet AGAINST them because they're so bad that they're likely to blow the game for their teams? We've made a lot of money over the years betting against bad quarterbacks...particularly those who are worse than oddsmakers realize. Any opportunities like that?
Probably not. As unimpressive as that list is...we're talking about teams who were already struggling on offense this year. Osweiler isn't replacing the best of Peyton Manning. He's replacing the shell of what Manning used to be...who was running one of the NFL's worst offenses. It's really not that far of a step backward!
Sanchez in for Bradford...Bradford's been such a disappointment that the Eagles may not get any worse. Hasselbeck for Andrew Luck? Well, Luck's been so turnover prone this year...and playing below par because of injuries...that the Colts may not be any worse.
There's an interesting dynamic with quarterbacks in the NFL. There are a few true superstars...and losing THEM means their teams take a big hit. Green Bay might be a full TD worse without Aaron Rodgers. New England may not even be a playoff team without Tom Brady. But...for the large group of relatively mediocre quarterbacks...there's just not that big a difference between them and their backups. In other words, there's a HUGE difference between the top 5-10 guys and the next 25...but hardly any difference in spots 30-60 on the full league depth chart.
A lot of guys are qualified to be temporary game managers on .500 caliber teams. Maybe Case Keenum is about to show he's on that list. T. J. Yates once won a playoff game even though he's had trouble catching on anywhere but in Houston.
Here's the best way to find potential go-against spots:
*Look at the opposing DEFENSES each new starter will face
*Look for spots where those defenses can embarrass him
*Look for additional bonus edges in those spots.
I don't want to get too specific because I could well have a major release in a game involving one of the new starters. Let's talk generally. Let's say a new starter is facing a great defense...and that opponent is also in a peak spot for THE MOTIVATION FACTOR off a loss in their prior game or something along those lines. Or, the team with the new starter is in a lookahead spot to a divisional rivalry game next week...or is otherwise just biding its time for awhile. THEN...you have the ingredients for a big play. The existence of a new starting QB by itself is not enough for a big play. It needs to be part of a stew.
That gives you NFL handicappers something to think about for this weekend's action. I hope you'll join me all through the weekend for my top releases in football and basketball. BEST BETS from KELSO STURGEON can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255. Don't forget to check on combination packages when you call.
A lot of NFL starting quarterbacks are being replaced right now. Do YOU need to be replaced as the driving force behind your portfolio? I sure hope not. I know how hard you've been working this season. But, maybe letting The Dean of Sports Handicapping drive for awhile will lead you to greener pastures. I have some very big plays planned for this weekend. We'll likely be reviewing those the next time we're together early next week. See you then.
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