Handicapping The NBA

Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Handicapping the NBA

We're now a couple of weeks into the new NBA season...which gives us some perspective for a "read and react" discussion to pro basketball as it's being played in the 2015-16 campaign. I don't have to tell you regulars that the hallmark of our handicapping approach here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping involves the following two factors:

 

PLAYMAKERS AND GAMEBREAKERS - THE MOTIVATION FACTOR

If you're handicapping the NBA...you should obviously know which players have the highest impact on their team's fortunes (or lack of fortune). And, you should be monitoring nightly results to keep tabs on motivation...meaning teams who should be fired up to play well off a loss or in a revenge spot...or teams who may lack motivation because they just had a peak game or aren't getting along with each other or the coach out of the gate.

Those approaches work all the time. What's interesting about RIGHT NOW?

*First, many teams are running like crazy out of the gate. They're copying the Golden State approach of racing down the floor trying to get good open looks. When a team wins a championships...they get copied. Of course...many teams don't realize that Golden State was playing great per-possession defense last year at that high pace. And, Steph Curry getting good, quick looks is different than whoever your local guy happens to be. Some teams are running themselves into big trouble! (Your homework: monitor pace numbers...and see if you can determine which teams are giving themselves greater headaches with an approach that doesn't fit their talent.)

*Second, it seems like everybody's trying to make three-pointers. That fundamental of "analytics" that 3 is better than 2 has really taken hold. That can be more efficient with decent shooters...but may be DUMB with big guys who don't have the range. Some teams are finding that out. (Your homework: read the boxscores to see which teams are launching too many BAD three-pointers in a way that creates virtual turnovers when they can't grab the rebound.) It will become apparent to you quickly that the market isn't yet recognizing which teams CAN'T succeed with the style they're trying.

*Third, we have new head coaches all over the place. The Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder are trying out college coaches in an experiment that both may regret. You really have to know your X's and O's in the NBA! College coaches who rely on recruiting or strong home courts may not be ready for the big time. There are also some young up-and-comers who may have found the right franchises to lead. I'm not going to say too much here because this particular angle will be an important part of my personal process through the rest of November at the very least. If the market doesn't catch up to what I'm seeing...it may be an important part of my process the next few months! (Your homework: make a list of all 30 NBA head coaches and how long they've been with their current team.)

*Finally, we're already seeing a dichotomy between championship contenders who are pacing themselves for the long haul...and those who are interested in making an early statement. The general public loses way too much money betting on "great" teams who are just treading water out of the gate. Then, too many handicappers miss out on "sleeper" teams who are bringing peak intensity every night (or, at least when not playing on night two of a back-to-back). You will pick up tremendous value against the market if you can properly categorize these teams. (Your homework: study victory margins and against-the-spread records for the most highly regarded NBA teams).

That's plenty to get you started. You should be winning money SEVEN DAYS A WEEK now that the NBA has joined football on the Las Vegas betting calendar. Being a professional sports bettor means finding and exploiting advantages all over the card.

If you'd like some help in basketball and football, KELSO STURGEON'S top plays in all sports can always be purchased here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255.

It's back to football the next time we're together. That should be a couple of days from now as we gear up for another big college and pro football weekend. Thanks for your attendance and hard work. The Dean of Sports Handicapping is honored by the respect you've given him by applying yourself so diligently to our coursework. See you again soon.

21
Nov

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