Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Budding Playmakers
You longtime students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping are aware that I place a great emphasis on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS in my process. As we approach the beginning of November, it's important for bettors to realize that some budding stars are about to become PLAYMAKERS after starts to the season that may not have been on your radar.
I'm talking about:
*First-year starters who are finally getting the hang of things
*Injury replacements who are much better than people realize
*Talented athletes who are seeing their teammates get healthy
Let me take those one at a time.
FIRST YEAR STARTERS "ARRIVING"
Jameis Winston is a rookie quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He's working his way through the learning curve in a way that may create some very impressive second half performances. His Bucs lost a heartbreaker in Washington last week 31-30 (while still covering the spread!). Winston was 21 of 29 passing for 289 yards. He didn't throw a single interception...and led is offense to a 58% conversion rate on third downs.
Not bad for a rookie!
There will be more growing pains ahead...but the worst is probably behind him. Look for spots the rest of the way where he can abuse bad or disinterested defenses in a way that can earn you money.
Then...look for other NFL rookies at skill positions who are in the same situation. And, do the same in college football with first time starters at the skill positions. I can assure you that many players who haven't really impressed so far are about to become very important in November at both the college and pro levels. Their stats in September and October don't matter so much because they reflect an awkward learning period that isn't relevant any more.
I want to be careful here because I don't want to tip my hand about possible major releases for me this weekend. I'll say it this way...whenever a team loses a high profile quarterback, running back, and sometimes even a wide receiver...it's assumed that disaster is on the way. Often, though, the new starter is positioned to perform very well. He's been waiting all year for an opportunity and he grabs it by the throat!
I can give you a quick example from last week. I had a 100-unit winner Saturday on Cincinnati over Connecticut. When Gunner Kiel first went down at quarterback earlier this season, it was assumed the Bearcats offense would be in trouble. Hayden Moore has done an excellent job as the new starter since then...possibly better than what Kiel would have accomplished! Be on the lookout for new quarterbacks (and particularly running backs in the minor conferences) who are ready to shine.
TEAMS GETTING HEALTHY
Sometimes the reason a quarterback looks so awful is because his best teammates are on the sidelines nursing injuries. He has an awful game and everyone blames him. But, when his teammates come back at full strength, he's suddenly a superstar again. Or, a running back looks like he's in a slump when his offensive line is shorthanded. When they get healthy, he's running through holes to the end zone and posing for cameras.
This is a great strategy all of you should have absorbed by now. Take teams who are getting healthy before the market realizes what's happened! Prices will be based on lousy recent form that has little to do with what the team can accomplish at full strength. For the purpose of today's discussion, it can really unleash PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS who have been healthy themselves, but dormant because of issues beyond their control.
These final days of October are the perfect time to make this a point of emphasis in your analysis. Don't make the mistake of thinking you have everything figured out because half of the season is in the books. New developments will complicate the world for lazy handicappers. My hard-working students aren't lazy handicappers! Keep your nose to the grindstone and reap the rewards.
If you'd like some help supplementing your weekly Las Vegas betting card, KELSO STURGEON'S top plays in all sports can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. I say "all sports" because football is joined on the schedule right now by the World Series and the start of the new NBA season! Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255.
Back with you next week for more coursework. That will either be a "read and react" report to the first five games of the World Series...or more football. I don't expect our first NBA discussion to run for a few weeks yet. Our "classroom" is jammed with football bettors! The Dean of Sports Handicapping will get to the NBA and college hoops in due time. See you next week.
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