Let’s Talk About Teasers
Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Let's Talk About Teasers
This past Thursday night's football results were a great reminder of why the general public does such a bad job with football teasers...and why smart handicappers can add them to their arsenal. I almost always focus on standard side and total handicapping here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. Today, let's take a field trip to the topic of teasers.
WHAT ARE TWO-TEAM TEASERS?
Most of you know what these are. But, there are some of you who are new to sports betting and aren't familiar with this longtime staple of Las Vegas sports betting. Today I'm going to focus on two-teamers...which is a betting proposition where:
*You get to move the line SIX points in your favor on TWO games
*You have to win at BOTH of those adjusted prices to cash your bet
If you go 1-1 at the new prices, you lose. Seems easy, because six points seems like a lot. But, they're called teasers for a reason. Many square public bettors lose big on these because they overestimate the value of points and their own handicapping ability.
WHAT'S THE WORST MISTAKE TEASER BETTORS MAKE?
It's almost automatic that a square bettor will see a line of "favorite -6," and he'll by dying to move that down to pick-em. "All they have to do is win the game straight up!" While it's true, you'd be shocked at how often six point favorites lose their games! This is also true at -6.5 (moving the game down to -0.5) and -7 (moving the game down to -1). "All they have to do is win the game" is a trick that will separate you from your money.
Thursday night...in the only college game, Miami of Florida was a six-point favorite at Cincinnati. They didn't even look like the superior team when it was all said and done. I was sure mad about their poor effort. Teaser bettors who included this "automatic" (in their view) play already lost all the possible teasers where it was included. Doesn't matter who you paired Miami with...the teaser bet is already down the tubes because Miami couldn't win straight up.
WHAT'S A BET TEASER BETTORS SHOULD CONSIDER?
Taking an underdog of +2.5 up to +8.5 may be the single best option in football betting. You cross both the 3 and the 7 with your six point move. And, you're doing it with a team that was expected to be competitive anyway because the line was below a field goal. Remember...a line of +2.5 means that smart bettors DIDN'T like the favorite or the game would have been bet up to there or more! Moving from a solid +2.5 up to +8.5 is generally a very smart percentage play.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were +2.5 through most of the week with Pittsburgh. They should have won the game. They ended up losing by three in overtime. Smart team side bettors shopped around and settled for a push. But, smarter teaser bettors cashed that half because Pittsburgh +8.5 as half a teaser was so sound.
Square bettors are always dying to take favorites. They think moving the line down makes their lives easier. In fact, the opposite is true. They should be trying to take dogs because lines are often stacked against favorites to begin with. Taking dogs puts the full force of teasers to work for you in terms of point value.
Some other keys to remember:
*Points are much more "valuable" in the NFL than in the colleges...so many smart bettors don't even try betting teasers in college football. Think about this...the Over Under in Thursday's NFL game was 43.5 or 44. In the college game, it was 70! Which is more valuable...taking six points in a tightly played game projected to land around 44...or a wide-open and wild game that could reach the 70's? Points are cheap in college football, which makes moving a line six points rarely worth doing. You're not getting much with the move. (My only college exceptions would be with low-total games in the high 30's or low 40's...bad weather games...or spots where your handicapping suggests you fade a bad team has little chance to score any points.)
*Any move that crosses both the 3 and the 7 in the NFL is usually sound. So, you should look at taking underdogs of +1.5, +2, and +2.5 up past the 3 and the 7...and favorites of -7.5, -8, and -8.5 below the 7 and the 3. The way the math works out...moving -6 down to pick-em isn't justified...but moving -8.5 down to -2.5 is. That's what the studies show...so start thinking in those teams.
*Don't waste time betting Over/Unders. The value just isn't there moving 50 up to 56 to go Under, or dropping 62 down to 56 to go Over (or whatever). There may be some occasional, very peculiar instances where a teaser might apply. Not worth the time and money to look for them. Focus on the areas where points are most valuable...then put those points to work for you.
I don't release teasers to my clients. And, I probably won't talk about them again this season. But, after Miami lost at Cincinnati in the colleges Thursday, while Pittsburgh played close with Baltimore...it seemed like the ideal time to broach the subject while those results were fresh in your mind. I always try to keep the coursework relevant to real world dynamics. You're trying to win NOW...so let's stay on top of NOW as best as possible.
KELSO STURGEON'S top plays can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-800-755-2255.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping thanks you for your attendance and hard work. See you again early next week
Today’s Hot Plays
Network Blue Ribbon Basketball Club
$25.00Purchase this nowBLUE RIBBON is not just team work… IT’S LEGWORK, SPADEWORK AND HOMEWORK… Tons of it.
Network Three Top Early NFL Totals
$15.00Purchase this nowJim Hurley knows HOW the Game Will be Played. That’s why he’s 14-7 in his last 21 Totals Plays. I’ve found three early totals that should never be in doubt and make you money during Sunday’s games.
Network NFL Shocker of the Month
$20.00Purchase this nowOn this one game you won’t need the points. Like when I Won my September Shocker with the Bills (+3) over the Broncos 26-16, and in October with the Chargers (+1.5) over the Broncos 21-0! This looks even easier!
Hurley Sources All Over Aqueduct Trio
$15.00Purchase this nowJim Hurley Racing Network Never Rests. On Sunday There Is Still One More Day In The Week To Take Profit. Best Bets, Longshots, Exotics
Network NFL Prime Time Game of the Month
$19.00Purchase this now8-1 Eagles are red hot! But Cowboys, even without Ezekiel Eliot, are talented and dangerous. Get my answer and win all the cash you’re ready to play Sunday night.