Finding Great Value Blowouts
Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Finding Great "Value" Blowouts
Generally speaking, you don't hear professional wagerers talk about betting for "value" on projected blowouts. That's almost always a term you either here regarding underdogs (they probably won't win the game but there's value plus the points) or with games priced right near a key number of 3 or 7 (there's some value on the favorite at -2.5 but it disappears on the three).
I'm here today to remind all of you students in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping that some of the best value bets on the board...particularly in Week One (!)...involve big favorites in college football who should be priced even higher than they are.
If you know what to look for, it's just not hard to find favorites of 20 points or more who are destined to cover their pointspreads by at least two touchdowns. Meaning...
Teams around -21 who will win by scores like 38-3 or 45-10
Teams around -28 who will win by scores like 52-10 or 62-20
Teams around -35 who will win by scores like 59-10 or 70-21
It's true that too many "square" bettors overestimate how often blowouts like this happen. They're too excited about laying chalk to really think through the process. But, too many skeptics say stuff like "Only an idiot would lay a high price like that" don't realize they're the ones being idiots. Oddsmakers and too many "sharps" are mispricing certain types of games.
I'm not going to get very specific because I need to protect any plays on big favorites I may be releasing this weekend. But, I will tell you what to look for.
FAVORED COACHES WHO LIKE TO RUN UP THE SCORE
There are several coaches who have made it clear over the years that they won't call off the dogs until they've won by at least 40 points. The key here is not to focus so much on the current team...but the long term history of the head coach in early season blowout situations. If he has the chance, he WILL put the hammer down and fly past the pointspread. If you're thinking of making a career in the field of sports betting, you should be developing profiles of every college head coach that monitors how his teams perform in blowout situations.
UNDERDOG COACHES WHO TAKE THEIR PAYCHECK AND MOVE ON
A lot of September matchups are "paycheck" games where a small time visitor shows up to take its beating at a major conference site so they can pay the athletic bill for the full calendar year. Some coaches just take their lumps and get out of Dodge. No reason to put up a fight. No reason to get a lot of key players injured before their own league play begins. Lose big...get back on the plane and go home. Some of your best bets in blowout games each season will come from fading these laydown teams.
ELITE TEAMS AND PLAYERS WHO "HAVE" TO EARN STYLE POINTS
Many coaches get it in their heads that they HAVE to run up the score to stay high in the polls. And, it's become clear in recent years that many quarterbacks on the early season Heisman watch lists are also focused on running up their touchdown counts. Final voting may come down to statistical factors that were launched out of the gate. If any team like this is facing a soft opposing defense...LOOK OUT! What seemed like a high full game spread may already be covered by halftime.
Obviously, if you have a combination of these three factors...then a great bet is staring you in the face. It's going to be quite a fireworks show on the home scoreboard when a coach who loves running up the score...and who is trying to earn style points with a start quarterback...is matched up against a "take their lumps" head coach saddled with a soft defense. These games will end 65-3 and Vegas rarely gets that high with its pointspreads.
Again...I'm not saying you should play a lot of big favorites. Many early season line are too high. You should look carefully to find truly standout options, then bet a lot on those! It can happen that Week One bets are worthy of 100-unit or better status on my grading system.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping hopes you keep all of that in mind as you handicap this weekend's card. If you'd like some help finding the best bets on the board, those can always be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255. This is a great time to sign up for a seasonal package because you get the most bang for your buck!
As I mentioned last time, I will be posting three handicapping related articles per week instead of two beginning this week and lasting for the forseeable future. That means one more report coming up right before the huge Saturday slate. I look forward to seeing you then. All of your summer preparation is about to pay off!
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