Should You Respect Line Moves in NFLX?
Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Should You Respect Line Moves in NFLX?
There's an ongoing debate between old-school handicappers like me and younger generations in terms of how much bettors should "respect" the market when studying line moves. The current generation gets more media attention...so you're likely to hear that the market is the end-all be-all, and going against "sharp" line moves is a recipe for disaster.
Well, let me tell you, we're in the midst of a baseball season right now where all the so-called experts had so many HUGE misreads that it's not even funny. It's one of the worst performances ever for "the market," because so many kid quants overrated their own expertise. If you tried to "learn" from what "the market" was saying early in the 2015 baseball season, it just made you stupid!
I have to admit though, that I do pay attention to line moves in the NFL Preseason. Information is king when it comes to these games...because only insiders know for sure how long key players are going to be on the field in exhibitions. I'm not going to tell you that early line moves are always right. Sometimes the smart money is flat wrong. Other times it was right but the bets lose anyway because of some fluky plays on the field like kick returns or turnovers. But, over a large sampling of games...you'll be well served by trying to learn what you can about clear market moves on team sides or totals.
So, part of the homework this month for you students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping is to monitor line moves in all NFL Preseason action.
*Log the openers
*Carefully note early moves off the openers
*Monitor lines through the week
*Carefully note game day moves
*Keep separate won-lost records for the early moves...and then the game day moves
Now, as you're doing this, do your best to figure out why a game has moved. If you've been doing your other homework...that might be obvious. Maybe you've noticed a head coach who's aiming to get results and oddsmakers missed the cue. Maybe you've noticed a backup quarterback who's likely to have a big game and swing the result. The Wise Guys study those elements, and bet accordingly. If you're in synch with these moves...congratulations...you're on the way to becoming a Wise Guy yourself!
Admittedly, there will be games where you can't deduce or reverse-engineer the reasoning behind a move. It's not like the most influential bettors in Las Vegas or offshore are going to call you on the phone to tell you. In those cases, study the games as they're being played, or the postgame boxscores to see if you can determine the key. That may be something you can use again next week...or even next August if it's about a head coach or a veteran backup quarterback.
I've told you often that I love handicapping the NFL Preseason. There's nothing else quite like it in the world of sports betting. It's a short term challenge that presents opportunities for a month...then goes into hibernation for the next 11 months. As you get older...those months start running together more quickly...and the things you learn about coaches or certain quarterbacks stick in your memory and help you pick more winners. Start your process now...and then enjoy a lifetime of great Augusts!
If you'd like some help finding the best plays on the NFL Preseason board each week, my personal service selections can be purchased right here at this very website with your major credit card. Questions about extended service can be answered personally by one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255. Action resumes this Thursday with the first full week of the Preseason. I hope you'll keep building your bankrolls with baseball so you can win seven days a week this month. Congratulations to all of you who won my 50-unit play on Tampa Bay over the Mets this past Sunday.
I'll be back with you again at the end of the week to talk more specifically about this weekend's big football schedule. Discipline is always very important when the games begin. Don't let your huge appetite for football cause you to "order" too many bets off the menu! Bet smart and the winning will take care of itself. The Dean of Sports Handicapping looks forward to seeing you again next time. Thanks for your continuing attendance and hard work.
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