Should You Bet "Early" College Football Options?
Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Should You Bet "Early" College Football Options?
Many Las Vegas sportsbooks have now made available betting options for the 2014 college football season. Among the choices for gamblers living here in the world capital of sports betting:
- Futures Odds to Win the National Championship
- Futures Odds to Win the Major Conferences
- Over/Unders on Regular Season Win Totals
- Special "Game of the Year" pointspreads on select matchups
Generally speaking, I would advise against all of you who are regular students here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping from betting what's available. Here's why:
- Futures Odds are nowhere near the "true" odds, and therefore offer no value
- You can often get better value backing a key team in rolling parlays
- Regular Season Wins and GOY lines often have low limits
- Sharps often take out most or all of the value right after the openers go up
- Betting NOW means that money sits in the sportsbook for months
If you're RIGHT, you don't get paid until December of January on many of those. You could have probably earned more profit from that same money by keeping it in your bankroll while you build profits through the season.
That being said, don't let anyone ever say that KELSO STURGEON ever told you to pass up free money. If you don't mind letting the sportsbook hold onto your cash for half a year in an instance where you're CONVINCED that a horrible number is on the board…then it's okay to bet. Go for the maximum bet that sportsbook allows at low limits…or the maximum bet your bankroll allows under responsible guidelines.
Best case scenarios:
- The line just went up and you get there before everyone else does
- Some sort of injury news breaks and you get to the window before the line has adjusted
- You have a great read on a team of interest in your area because you follow offseason developments much more closely than others in the market do
This is where I can justify a big bet on a regular season win total or a "game of the year" option in college football. If the team you follow most closely is either going to be much better or much worse than expected because of insights you've garnered from your proximity, then it's silly not to take that free money.
Maybe the new quarterback options are all bad, and a previous bowl-caliber team is going to fall off the map because last year's starter graduated. Maybe a coaching change is going to improve fortunes very quickly, or mess up team chemistry that had been there under a predecessor who got hired away. Maybe a new offensive coordinator is going to install a system that lines up perfectly with the available talent.
In these instances:
- Don't worry about "odds" to win, those still don't offer true value
- Bet the Over or Under on the win total (depending on your read) aggressively
- Bet any "game of the year" options aggressively
Remember that those "game of the year" options allow the freedom to shoot some middles later in the season if you're read is correct and the lines eventually adjust. Let's say a sleeper is only -4 right now in a game against their rival. If you think it's going to be a big season for that team…and you're right…that line might be -10 or higher come kickoff. You can buy some back on the dog and go for a really big payoff.
For most of you…summer college football should be a pass. The value just isn't there…particularly after the lines have settled. And there's no reason to let your money sit in a sportsbook vault for six months when you can be more flexible with it once the season starts. The Dean of Sports Handicapping says students following the coursework here should only get involved in specific circumstances that involve a team you know inside and out that's currently being mispriced by the market.
We'll talk more about football and baseball all through the summer here in the coursework. Our next get-together will be early next week. If you'd like to build your bankrolls for football with some summer baseball, I strongly encourage you to purchase my daily best bets. You can get those right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you have any questions about early-bird football or extended summer baseball packages, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255.
College football will be here before you know it. Don't forget that the first big day of action is on the final Saturday of August rather than in early September. I hope that you've already been studying those offseason newsstand preview magazines and building some initial Power Ratings. A prepared bettor is a winning bettor!
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