Be Wary of Championship Futures Prices!
Kelso’s Advanced Sports Betting: Be Wary of Championship Futures Prices!
Earlier this week, I talked about how the whole LeBron James soap opera was distracting the sports world whether than informing it. Isn’t it interesting that it took the legal betting markets to inform the sports media world about what was actually happening! You probably read in the media that many bettors in Las Vegas were suddenly flocking to sportsbooks to bet on the Cavaliers to win the NBA. Vegas “knew” before everyone else.
And, that’s because…
- Somebody connected to the LeBron James entourage must have wanted to make some money on the side…or
- Somebody connected to Sports Illustrated wanted to make some money on the side…or
- Somebody connected with the Cleveland Cavaliers wanted to make some money on the side.
Sure, there could have been some pure “speculation” that figured “Hey, there’s a 50/50 chance that LeBron goes to Cleveland, so I might as well bet them at 30-1 to win the title.” It was pretty clear fairly quickly, though, that somebody knew something.
And, that brings me to my lesson for this week here in my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping. “Futures” prices in Las Vegas rarely offer value. In fact, one of the ONLY times they do offer value is in situations like this where there’s a SHOCKING development that hadn’t been priced into the markets before. That’s because:
- Futures prices in ALL sports in Las Vegas don’t reflect anything near the true odds of that thing happening. You’re almost always taking the worst of it to a huge degree when playing a bet on a team to win the championship. You may think that 20-1 sounds appealing when it involves your favorite team. I can assure you that the “true” price is more like 40-1 or 50-1 if Vegas is offering 20-1. You’re not making a value bet. You’re making a dumb bet that you’ll have to be very lucky to win anyway.
- Any futures prices that even offer a tiny bit of value are bet into place immediately by sharps. Now, the Wise Guys don’t bet a lot of futures. But, professionals bet ALL value in Las Vegas whenever it appears.
There’s just no way that YOU, no matter how great a student you are here in our coursework, are going to make any sort of meaningful profit betting futures except in the very rare/borderline impossible situations where you actually have inside information about a bad team that’s about to acquire a high impact superstar. And, that’s not from HANDICAPPING! That’s just because you happen to know somebody who may be aware of a high school superstar about to commit to a doormat college football program, or what we saw this week involving free agency.
In most cases, it’s just the rich getting richer. If a good team brings in another good player, maybe they drop from 7-1 to 6-1, or 5-1 to 3-2. The original price didn’t reflect true odds because so many different contenders are capable of catching breaks here or there and going the distance. The new price is even worse.
The way to profit from these situations is to wait for the games to start…then handicap properly based on the fundamentals you’ve been learning on these pages for years. Often you’ll be fading the “new look” teams because the market has overpriced them because of media attention and square betting. The point is…you’ll be in position to get the best of the pricing instead of taking the worst of it. That’s how pro bettors win.
If you’d like to win on a daily basis like pro bettors, you can purchase my baseball BEST BETS right here at this very website with your major credit card. If you have any questions about early-bird football or summer baseball packages, please talk to one of my representatives in the office at 1-800-755-2255.
I’ll be back again with you early next week to take stock of the 2014 Major League Baseball season over the All-Star Break. There have been a lot of surprises this year…with projected GAMEBREAKERS turning out to be duds or getting hurt…which has helped create compelling Pennant Races in all six divisions. From that point forward, I’ll be mixing baseball with football through July and August. The NFL exhibition slate is going to get here quick! The Dean of Sports Handicapping knows you’ll be ready for the challenge. See you next time.
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