Alabama 6-5 Favorite Over 8-5 Florida State To Win National Championship But Nothing Is Certain

Alabama 6-5 Favorite Over 8-5 Florida State To Win National Championship But Nothing Is Certain

By Kelso Sturgeon

The road to the Bowl Champion Series game that decides college football's national championship appears to be paved with gold for Alabama (9-0) and Florida State (9-0), the two leading candidates to meet in the title game January 6, in the Rose Bowl. It is a given that if the Crimson Tide and the Seminoles finished undefeated, they will be the chosen two.

While reality points in that direction, it does not have to happen. Alabama, a team going for its third-straight national championship and its fourth in the past five years, is the 6-5 favorite to win it all but, short odds or not, there is a dark cloud named Auburn (9-1) looming just over the horizon. One can bet it all when Alabama arrives in Opelika for this one, the welcome will not be friendly, nor will the Tide be facing an outmanned, under-coaches opponent.

Auburn has become the real deal under the coaching of Gus Malzahn, a pure offensive genius who has taken a team that went 3-9 last season and marched it right into the Top Ten. The only game the Tigers have lost was a 35-21 affair early in the season at LSU.

Auburn is certain to be the underdog and will have a bye week to get ready for its game of the year. Meantime, Alabama will host I-AA power Chattanooga seven days before Auburn.

It does not take tremendous insight by bettors to understand all the subjective elements that will impact the outcome of a game such as Alabama-Auburn in both determining the outright winner and the cover.

The incentive factor becomes major factor this weekend for teams hoping to play for the nationally championship, get a BCS bowl bid, win a conference championship or just to get bowl eligible. Ignore this at your own risk.

Ohio State Is Simply Screwed, While Baylor Could Be The Fly In the Ointment

Ohio State went 12-0 last season and is headed in that direction this year as it journeys to Illinois 3-6 this week. The only thing standing between the Buckeyes and a 13-0 season will be the Big Ten Conference championship game where they will most likely face Michigan State (8-1) but reality says Ohio State will remain on the outside looking in.

For the Buckeyes to get to the title game, both Alabama and Florida State will have to lose and Baylor (8-0) would have to lose somewhere along the way. I am no expert on BCS figures but my amateur calculation says the Bears could play for the title if they win out and either number one and number two lose.

Wins over Texas Tech (7-3), Oklahoma State (8-1), TCU (4-6) and Texas (7-2) also might vault Baylor over the two front-runners, regardless of whether they win out.

Here are the current odds to win the BCS Championship.
#1 Alabama.....6-5
#2 Florida State.....8-5
#3 Ohio State.....7-1
#4 Stanford...25-1
#5 Baylor.....3-1

The Weekend's College Football Betting Menu

Friday, Nov. 15

25-Unit PAC-12 ESPN Battle - Huskies (6-3) at UCLA (7-2)
UCLA (7-2) can take a major step towards winning the PAC-12 South division tonight with a victory over Washington (6-3) and in the process punch its ticket to the conference's championship game where a BCS bid goes to the winner. UCLA is the favorite but Washington is not expected to lay down on the job and does present a major challenge to that which the Bruins hope to accomplish tonight. That said, I have a very strong opinion on this game and am releasing it as a 25-unit play and you can win it for just $25

Saturday, Nov. 16

Stanford at USC Tops 100-Unit 3-Team November TV Triple Crown
There are several significant games on today's college football schedule but few have the significance of the nationally-televised (ABC) Saturday night (8:05 Eastern) contest that finds Stanford (8-1) at Southern California (7-3). Stanford is and should be the favorite but a much-improved USC team that is looking to put itself back on the map is no pushover. The winner is not found in data but in the situation and I believe that element gives one of these teams a dominating edge. I intend to win a 25-unit play on the Stanford-USC game, plus two other 25-unit knockouts, and set the stage for a 7-0 day by winning my November TV Triple Crown. Win the three 25-unit plays, three 5-unit 2-team parlays and a 10-unit 3-teamer for just $50, CLICK HERE.

Going For 6th Straight 100-Unit College Football Game Of Week Winner Saturday
I have gone a perfect 5-0 with my last five 100-unit College Football Game of the Week plays and plan to make that 6-0 with another 100-unit play that should win in dominating fashion. For the record, here are my last five 100-Unit Game of the Week releases:

11/9...100 Units...Iowa (-14.5) 38, Purdue 14 (W)
10/19...100 Units...Akron (-6.5) 24, Miami-OH 17 (W)
10/12...100 Units...Buffalo (-10.5) 33, Western Michigan 0 (W)
10/5...100 Units...Texas Tech (-16.5) 54, Kansas 16 (W)
9/28...100 Units...Missouri (-21.5) 41, Arkansas State 19 (W)
My record in my 100-unit College Games of the Week speaks for itself-and has for the past five seasons and you can step in with confidence today and again go for the big money. Win the big one for just $50.

Nationally-Televised Georgia at Auburn Highlight Of 3-0 Saturday...Just $15
The Georgia Bulldogs (6-3), a team that has seen a promising season ruined by injuries to key skill players, is at surprising Auburn (9-1) today for a nationally-televised (CBS) SEC contest that many do not realize is one of the biggest rivalry games in the Deep South, and it usually brings out the best in both teams. I expect just that to happen and believe I do have the winner of this one. Win a 15-unit play on the Georgia-Auburn game, plus get two additional 10-unit winners, for just $15, charged to your major credit card.

College Injury Report

  • Indiana - RB Tevin Coleman (Ankle) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Wisconsin.
  • Vanderbilt - QB Austyn Carta-Samuels (Knee) doubtful Saturday vs. Kentucky.
  • Rutgers - RB Paul James (Leg) missed last 4 games, probable Saturday vs. Cincinnati.
  • Florida - QB Tyler Murphy (Shoulder) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. South Carolina.
  • West Virginia - QB Clint Trickett (Head) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Kansas.
  • Baylor - RB1 Lache Seastrunk (Groin) "?" Saturday vs. Texas Tech.
    Baylor - WR Tevin Reese (Wrist) out for regular season.
    Baylor - RB2 Glasco Martin (Knee) doubtful Saturday vs. Texas Tech.
  • Texas - RB Johnathan Gray (Achilles) out for season.
  • Oregon - QB Marcus Mariota (Knee) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Utah.
  • Nebraska - QB Taylor Martinez (Hip) doubtful Saturday vs. Michigan State.
  • Nevada - QB Cody Fajardo (Foot) "?" Saturday vs. San Jose State.
  • Mississippi St - QB Dak Prescott (Arm) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Alabama.

Kelso's College Football Top 25

1. Florida State (9-0) - Hosts Syracuse (5-4) at homecoming.
2. Alabama (9-0) - Tide 25-point favorite at Mississippi State (4-5)
3. Baylor (8-0) - Meets Texas Tech (7-3) at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington.
4. Stanford (8-1) - Gets another acid test at USC (7-3) as 4-point favorite.
5. Missouri (9-1) - Bye Week, then at Ole Miss (6-3)
6. Oregon (8-1) - Hosts Utah (4-5) as 25-point favorite.
7. Auburn (9-1) - Hosts arch-rival Georgia (6-3), then gets Alabama (9-0).
8. Michigan State (8-1) - Spartans 6.5-point favorite at Nebraska (7-2)
9. Ohio State (9-0) - Can Buckeyes cover -33.5 at Illinois?
10. Clemson (8-1) - Hosts Georgia Tech (6-3) as 10.5-point favorite Thursday.
11. Central Florida (7-1) - Solid 17-point favorite at Temple (1-8)
12. LSU (7-3) - Bye Week, then hosts Texas A&M.
13. Wisconsin (7-2) - Hosts Indiana (4-5) as 21.5-point favorite.
14. South Carolina (7-2) - Hosts Florida (4-5) in real grudge game.
15. Texas A&M (8-2) - Bye Week, then at LSU (7-3)
16. Louisville (8-1) - Hosts Houston (7-2) in key AAC game.
17. UCLA (7-2) - Hosts Washington (6-3) Friday night.
18. Fresno State (9-0) - Bye Week, then hosts New Mexico (3-6)
19. USC (7-3) - Hosts Stanford (8-1) at homecoming.
20. Miami (7-2) At Duke (7-2) as 3-point favorite.
21. Virginia Tech (7-3) - Hosts Maryland as 15-point favorite.
22. Arizona State (7-2) - Hosts Oregon State (6-3) as 14-point favorite.
23. Houston (7-2) - At Louisville (8-1) as 17-point 'dog.
24. Northern Illinois (9-0) - Beat Ball State 48-27 Wednesday night.
25. Minnesota (8-2) - Bye Week, then hosts Wisconsin (7-2)

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