Oddsmakers Tipping Hand in NFL

Kelso's Advanced Sports Betting: Oddsmakers Tipping Hand in NFL

If you love betting on NFL football, you know that many options are already available in Las Vegas. The folks at Cantor posted early numbers (for limited action) on every single regular season game several weeks ago. Lines for Week One are up at a variety of stores, with reasonable limits for being so far in advance. Oddsmakers are already fairly confident they have a feel for what the Week One lines should be even before the exhibition slate has begun.

And, of course, there are Regular Season Win propositions all over the place as well, particularly offshore. You can bet Over or Under any team's projection. As I discussed with the colleges, the downside is that sportsbooks get to hold your money for the rest of the year while you wait to see if you won your bet. The upside is that oddsmakers make mistakes!

Possibly one of the biggest mistakes oddsmakers are making right now is that they're tipping their hand. This really doesn't matter in terms of the general public. Squares couldn't win at poker if all their opponents' cards were turned face up. But, Advanced Sports Bettors and Handicappers like you and me can take these early reads and build a strategy for the coming season.

Some thoughts:

  • There are several new head coaches all over the league. The Regular Season Win totals and early regular season lines will tell you very clearly what oddsmakers are expecting for those teams. I strongly encourage you to study these spots diligently. Nobody can really know for sure what kind of impact Andy Reid will have right away in Kansas City...or how a coach from the Canadian Football League is going to do in Chicago. Make your own assessments of the best expectations (focusing on PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS along with the relevant history of those coaches). Oddsmakers had to put up numbers for every team. You can sit back, study, then pound any mistakes they've made.

  • There's a big glob of teams in the"average"to"might be pretty good"range that oddsmakers are having trouble separating. Think back to last year. There were a few teams in the playoffs who really didn't deserve to be there. There were a handful (maybe two handfuls) of teams who could have made it with another break or two. It's very clear that oddsmakers are just throwing up their hands at the moment. They've put most of these teams at 8-9 in estimated wins...and they've made the home teams about -2.5 to -3 in the full season lines at Cantor when they play each other. To me, this signifies a very clear lack of confidence from the men behind the line. Those of us with confidence will be well positioned to attack bad numbers in the early weeks of the season when we make proper reads about who's for real and who isn't.

  • There are a few teams that oddsmakers aren't giving enough respect. I'm not going to make the mistake of tipping my own hand here in a publicly available web article. My point is...the oddsmakers are announcing their blind spots (which is also true for a few teams they've overrated). I will give you this much of a hint. Spend some time looking at last year's non-playoff teams...and focus on YOUNG playmakers and gamebreakers who are likely to be even better this year than they were last year. Pay attention to wide receivers and quarterbacks...and in at least two cases defensive personnel. Oddsmakers tend to assume stability from one year to the next. Teams most likely to make big steps forward are those with young stars.

We'll talk more about college and pro football in the coming days and weeks. Of course I'll keep sprinkling in baseball through the month of July as well. August and the NFL Preseason will be here before you know it. Be sure you're doing the work it takes to be well prepared for the Fall. It's now easier than ever to beat football because oddsmakers are tipping their hands during the summer more than they ever did in the past.

If you're concerned about being overmatched on the gridiron because you're still new to the scene, you can sign up for my seasonal package at a very reasonable early bird rate. Make a few clicks and have your major credit card handy.

See you again early next week with either more football or a special baseball report. I greatly appreciate that so many of you make it a point to attend my College of Advanced Sports Betting and Handicapping so regularly. You wouldn't be doing that if it wasn't paying off for you. And, the tuition is free!

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Nov

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