Kelso's Advanced Handicapping: Keys to 100 and 200-Unit Winners
Kelso's Advanced Handicapping: Keys to 100 and 200-Unit Winners
I want to personally thank all of you who were with me last Saturday for my 200-Unit College Football Game of the Year on Fresno State over Colorado State. That came on the heels of my 200-Unit College Blowout of the Year on Louisiana Monroe over Tulane the week before...and made it FOUR STRAIGHT winners on plays rated 100-units or higher...which are the very biggest games offered in this industry.
Let me run the full list for you, before talking more about how the principals of Advanced Handicapping scored so easily for us in these games. Starting this past Saturday and moving backward...
October 6: Fresno State (-17.5) beat Colorado State 28-7 for 200 UNITS
September 29: Louisiana Monroe (-20) beat Tulane 63-10 for 200 UNITS
September 22: Ole Miss (-18) beat Tulane 39-0 for 100 UNITS
September 15: Fresno State (-14.5) beat Colorado 69-14 for 100 UNITS
The most obvious thing that will jump out at you is that I'm using some repeat teams in the mix. Don't get the idea that I'm using some sort of "lucky" team superstition when making my plays. Advanced Handicapping has no use for superstition or karma. Games either qualify or they don't based on a logical set of circumstances that have been proven to show dramatic success against the Las Vegas lines.
I didn't go against Tulane twice in a row for big money bets and releases because it just "felt right." Tulane has very little going for it this year in terms of talent, and was in particular trouble in those matchups against much better teams who were positioned to make statements against a doormat who couldn't do anything about it.
Most importantly, their skill position offense is so bad that they had little chance to rally in garbage time for a back door cover. There's nothing worse than having a correct read on a game only to see third stringers get into the end zone against other third stringers. Tulane has no PLAYERS. When they fell way behind, there was no way they could get anything on the board no matter who was defending. That's why they lost by a combined 102-10 when getting only 38 points from oddsmakers.
Same thing with Fresno State. I wasn't "going to the well" once again with Fresno last weekend just because I was hoping a team that was nice to be once would be nice again. I hear stuff like that from regular Joe's in sportsbooks all the time. They fall in love with a team that won for them once, and they use that crush to justify another pick. That's NOT what I was doing here.
Fresno State had more PLAYMAKERS and GAMEBREAKERS by a wide degree. Game conditions slowed that down a bit, which is why we didn't see an exact replay of their 69-14 home win over Colorado. Well, the defense was still great at shutting down a horrible opponent. The offense did enough to get the money. Note that this game was 28-0 until the hosts scored with 42 seconds left. And, total yardage was about 400-175 until that meaningless last minute drive.
The point I want to emphasize regarding Advanced Handicapping today is that similarities in OPPONENTS made it very likely that the one-sided results were going to continue. Sharp-eyed sleuths didn't stop at the fact that Tulane and Fresno State showed up twice on my list. They noticed what the opponents had in common.
Colorado and Colorado State (opponents of Fresno State) were both extremely bad teams who had played each other this year. In fact, CSU is now 1-5 on the season with their only win coming in a very close game against Colorado. Fresno State didn't play a very close game against Colorado! The same reasons that led Fresno State to dominate the Buffaloes put them in position to dominate the Rams too.
Mississippi and Louisiana-Monroe (opponents of Tulane) aren't in the same conference, but they might as well be the way Monroe is playing this year. Monroe had already played two games against teams in the SEC West (home of Ole Miss) at the time of my pick. They had upset Arkansas and just missed beating Auburn. That put them in the general vicinity of Ole Miss in my Power Ratings. When Ole Miss more than doubled its spread against Tulane, it made perfect sense that Louisiana-Monroe would be in position to do the same thing at a comparable Vegas line.
This is what I want you to take from today's discussion. Don't use superstition or "lucky" teams to make your picks. People go broke every day in Vegas betting with horrible strategies like that. It IS okay to come back on or against certain teams when logic dictates based on proven fundamentals. And, one of the best ways to fuel that logic is to look for either common opponents, or very similar opponents who are likely to show repeat results.
If somebody as bad as Tulane is vulnerable against a certain class of team in a certain situation, then you should be studying the schedule closely to find additional examples that may be worth exploiting.
If a mid-level team (or better) like Fresno State with some playmakers has established that they can dominate patsies...then step in and ask them to dominate patsies as long as the linesmakers haven't adjusted too much. I laid 17.5 with the Bulldogs in my 200-Unit College Game of the Year. I wouldn't have laid 27, or 34. Oddsmakers have been very slow to penalize the worst teams in the nation this year in terms of pointspreads. I heartily thank them for it!
I'll be back with you on Friday for our next class here in my College of Advanced Handicapping. Be sure you check the home page of this website and my weekly videos for news about more upcoming major releases in college football, pro football, and even in the Major League baseball playoffs. This coursework is designed to improve the percentage win-rates for do-it-yourselfers. Additional guidance is always just a few clicks away.
We spent the summer gearing up for football. Now you're seeing firsthand the rewards from all that preparation. My Advanced Handicapping techniques WILL beat the line for those who do the work!
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