What Goes Into A GOY
Kelso's Advanced Handicapping: What Goes Into a GOY
On the day that I'm releasing my 50-Unit NFL Preseason Blowout of the Year, I wanted to generally outline the keys that go into such a big play. I won't tell you here in my College of Advanced Handicapping who the exact selection is. That's not fair to everyone who's signed up for my Preseason or full season service. But, I can discuss the general themes that have triggered tonight's projected blowout.
I mentioned elsewhere on the site that I'm looking for a final victory margin of 17-21 points. That's a lot for the Preseason where Vegas pointspreads are generally around a field goal. Just by looking at tonight's spreads you can tell that I'm projecting a double digit cover. That could mean a home team winning big, the way Indianapolis pounded St. Louis last Sunday. Or, maybe it's a short road dog going all out for a result the way Cleveland did at Green Bay Thursday Night. Either way, I'm confident that my clients and I are going to get the money.
What are the keys?
First, there's an emphasis on TONIGHT. I'm convinced that my team is going to be aiming to get a result this evening, while the opponent could care less about the final score. It's not enough to have talent edges in the Preseason. And, it's actually not uncommon at all for the less talented team to win big! You need to have a team that cares against a team that doesn't. All indicators in the coaching histories in in local media coverage tell me that this dynamic is in play in dramatic fashion for one of tonight's six games. What would normally have made sense for a 5-10 Unit play...or maybe even a 25-Unit play...is going off as a FIFTY UNIT BLOWOUT because of a set of circumstances that is unique to tonight.
Secondly, I want GAMEBREAKERS or PLAYMAKERS who will be in position to have an impact. That means, they'll be ON THE FIELD when the result is being decided! I've talked already this summer about how tricky it can be to apply my GAMEBREAKERS and PLAYMAKERS approach to exhibition games. I'm not permitting myself to say much more than this...I do believe that my starters AND my backups will be in position to score touchdowns tonight, while the other team isn't worrying all that much about finding the end zone. The impact my key players will have is crystal clear to me, but far from obvious to the oddsmakers. They've tossed a number down hoping to generally split the action (they won't!). The way I look at football has allowed me to play the game out in a way that makes this blowout jump off the page.
Thirdly, one of the principals of Advanced Handicapping is respect for the market. You have to know what a widely available price and line movements are telling you about a favorite in a game...and you have to know what they're telling you about an underdog. I can assure you that I'm in sync with what professional wagerers have already done, or what they will be doing in the hours before kickoff of this particular game.
I'm not concerned so much about line value here. Remember...I'm calling for a victory of 17-21 points on a night where none of the spreads are higher than a TD. But, we will be rooting for the"right side." I can tell you that!
That's enough for the purposes of our educational efforts here in my College of Advanced Handicapping. There are additional keys behind this 50-Unit Blowout of the Year that are specific to the matchup. I just can't talk about those in a free article. You can purchase tonight's monster for just $35 here at the website. Or, you can sign up for my "Big Five Guarantee" that gets you all five planned major releases for a one-time payment of $150...with the guarantee that anything less than 5-0 gets you all of September absolutely FREE. That's right. You must sweep the board 5-0 with my top Preseason plays (tonight is the first on the list) or you'll get September pro and colleges for FREE.
I'm sorry I can't be more specific ahead of time. But, I am confident that I've prepared you well for the Preseason with our prior coursework. And, many of you do-it-yourselfers may already be on the same pick as a result. It's gratifying to know that so many of you have improved your individual performances in football, baseball, and basketball since this online study course started. If you're concerned that you don't have the right game, make a few clicks and have your major credit card handy to get Friday's blockbuster, and any other big games that come up through the weekend.
I'll be back with you on Tuesday for our next class. It hasn't been determined yet whether that will be a pro or college report. I like to"read and react" to important developments once a season is underway. There's so much I want to say about the exhibition slate already...but I can't be lax about preparing you for a college campaign that will be here before you know it. I trust that you've already been doing the prep work I suggested a few weeks ago in the colleges. If you're new to the website, please to through the archives and print out prior editions (they go up every Tuesday and Friday afternoon) so that you can create a virtual textbook that can be referred to year-round.
I hope you enjoy what's looking to be a VERY big weekend!
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