All-Star Game Preview
A LOOK AT THE ALL-STAR GAME
PLUS AN INSIDE VIEW OF THE HANDICAPPING PROCESS
By Kelso Sturgeon
Major League Baseball offers up its 82nd All-Star Game Tonight and the American League is an across-the-board favorite, although bookmakers differ dramatically on the price. The American League, which is 12-1-1 in the last 14 games, is a -130 at the Hilton Super Book in Las Vegas and -112 at the offshore book, Pinnacle. In between those two figures there as many different prices as there are numbers.
If ever there was a game on which one should shop around before betting, it is this one. The best price is the only right price. While the American League is the favorite, it is of note 55% of the early betting came from wiseguys and was on the underdog National League. Just food for thought.
Many handicappers and bettors duck the All-Star Game for reasons known only to them and miss an opportunity to win a bet. I have had excellent success in the All-Star Game in the past and am releasing tonight's game as a 25-unit side/total parlay—10 units on the side, 10 units on the total and them a 5-unit parlay on the side and total.
You can get my selection on this game on this site and toll free at my office, 1-800-755-2255, for just $15. All major credit cards are accepted.
Tonight's game will be played at Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, in Phoenix and will begin at 8:25 P.M. Eastern Time. It will be televised nationally by FOX.
The Los Angeles Angels' Jered Weaver (11-4, 1.86) will start for the AL while the Philadelphia Phillies' Roy Halladay (11-3, 2.45) gets the opening call for the NL. Weaver is at his absolute best and has the lowest ERA in baseball. Halladay, last year's NL Cy Young Award winner has not lost a game May 15, and since May 20 is 6-0 with an ERA of 2.65 and has struck out 65 batters while issuing just six walks. The total on tonight's game is 8 ½. It is of some interest the average number of runs scored in the past five games is 6.4. In the five previous to that, the average was 11.4.
The National League beat the American League, 3-1 last year, breaking a losing streak that dated back to 1996. The NL holds an overall 40-38-2 edge in All-Star wins. While last year's game was decided by two runs, the previous four were all one-run affairs.
The Choice To Settle For A Guaranteed $4,500 Profit
There are many facets to successful handicapping , with 'success' being defined as winning money—as much as is possible with the risk vs. reward factor the foundation of it all decisions.
Handicapping and betting are connected but they are not the same thing and a perfect example of this was served up this past Sunday when I went into the third and final game of my Weekend Triple Crown 2-0, and facing a hard decision. After the first two games—a 50-unit win on Friday by the Detroit Tigers (-115), 6-4, over Kansas City and a 50-unit win on Saturday by the Florida Marlins (-155), 6-1, over the Houston Astros, those betting $100-per-unit up $10,000. It was time to starting some deep thinking.
During the morning handicapping hours Sunday the Detroit Tigers, with Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.26) on the mound, were a -180 favorite. At that price I would have to lay $9,000 of the $10,000 I was up to win another $5,000 and complete a $15,000 weekend. If I lost that $9,000 bet, my Triple Crown clients would end up with a nice $1,000 profit but it would be kind of a downer to be up $10,000 and walk away with $1,000. More thinking and back to the drawing board.
The figures gave Detroit a 95% chance to win the game straight up, and a 90% chance to win a run line bet, laying the 1 ½ runs -110.
At that point I made a conscious decision to do the later, give 1 ½ runs and lay $5,500 to win $5,000. At worst the $100 bettors would walk away with $4,500 for their weekend efforts and $10 players would have a profit of $450.
Detroit won the game, 2-1, with the only Kansas City run coming on an error in the eighth inning. The error cost us the run-line win that would have allowed us to win another $5,000. Of course, had I laid the $9,000 we would have won the game and another $5,000. There is no red board here. I know I did the right thing. This is a risk vs. reward game and one must never lose sight of that.
Again, the questions:
--Do I lay $9,000 to win $5,000 and, if I lose, leave bettors with a $1,000 profit?
--Do I lay $5,500 to win $5,000 and, if I lose, leave bettors with a $4,500 profit?
With those 95% and 90% figures staring me in the face, it was an easy call. As a handicapper, I know one is at risk every time one makes a bet and I play the game to guarantee as big a profit as I can for my clients. I did that Sunday and I will do it again when the same situation arises. This is just a little insight on how I handicap, how I protect my clients—many times from themselves—and illustrates why I repeatedly tell people winning is not an accident. This certainly is a game of picking winners, but in my mind the focus is on the dynamics in play. Again, the decision on Sunday was easy to make. Win and protect is the name of the game.
NFL FOOTBALL WILL BEGIN ON TIME
AND PLAY A REGULAR 16-GAME SCHEDULE
Sign Up For Football, Get Baseball Free
There may be a lot of back-and-forth between NFL owners and the players' union over the current lockout and a new contract but it means little. I have been assured by NFL insiders there will be a full 16-game season, and that it will begin on time. You can sign up for the college and National Football League season right now for $199, and get free Best Bet Club baseball selections every day until the season begins. The Best Bets Club Package, which also includes four 100-unit game of the year plays, plus my 200-unit college and NFL games of the year, will later sell for $349. Sign up now on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 and start winning in baseball today. All major credit cards are accepted. Best Bets Football Club membership at this early-bird price of $199 is the bargain of the year. Keep in mind, the baseball you receive in this package is worth $199.
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