Kelso Moves The Moneyline
MARLINS BURY ASTROS FOR 50-UNIT WIN
KELSO RELEASE MOVES THE MONEYLINE
By Kelso Sturgeon
The numbers said it all Saturday as I released the Florida Marlins (-160) over the Houston Astros and got my second straight 50-unit win in my Weekend Triple Crown, The final score was 6-1 and I head into today's baseball schedule confident I will win the third and final 50-unit play of the weekend.
The betting numbers produced by this game were nothing short of bizarre and it is quite likely the respect for my 50-unit baseball plays caused it. Bookmakers are stubborn about moving baseball betting lines, feeling the lines they offer protect them from the get go. On most occasions when they get hit with an unusual amount of money on a particular team they may move the number 5-10 points but that is it.
That was not the case last night.
Minutes after I released the Marlins at -160, the number began a run that made Florida the hottest play on the board. Five minutes after the game was posted at my office, 1-800-755-2255, and here online, the number was moved to -165 at most books, then to -170, then to -175. When the money did not stop coming in, bookmakers posted Florida -180, then -190 and there were even a few books that had the Marlins -200.
Bettors were so confident of the win bookmakers said they would have laid any price to get down.
The upside in all of this is it is nice to know bookmakers respect you while the downside is the fact the number ran out to -200 in what probably is the biggest line move of the entire baseball season. I only hope you got in early at -160, which was the right line, but even if you ended up laying the bigger numbers, you still won—and that is the beauty of baseball betting.
It does not matter the odds you laid, since all you had to do to win the bet was to win the game. Mission accomplished. Hopefully this is a one-time deal in getting caught.
The Florida Marlins play graded out with better than a 90% chance to win, as did Game I on Friday night when the Detroit Tigers (-115) knocked off Kansas City, 6-4. Today's 50-unit baseball play also grades out with better than a 90% chance to win and is available on this website and toll free at my office, 1-800-755-2255 for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
Money Percentages Produces Eye-Opening Results
I announced yesterday I had added another edge to my handicapping with an arrangement with three giant offshore books who take heavy wiseguy baseball action. In return I provide them with my quite sophisticated current form pitcher ratings each day. The arrangement works for both of us and certainly has been an eye-opener to me after just two days of adding this factor to my baseball handicapping equation.
Friday's 50-unit win with Florida was supported by the highest money ratio of the day. In that game, the Marlins had 76% of the money bet on them while Houston attracted just 24% of the money.
On Friday's schedule there were five games that had at least 67% of the money bet on them, and they went 4-1. Yesterday, there were five more teams with at least 67% of the money on them and they too went 4-1. My study on this aspect of betting has just begun and will not be completed until next year's World Series but I have already seen enough to start using it right now. The data is already working for me and my clients.
On the Sunday schedule, there are six games that were heavily bet early. As noted yesterday all the early money is smart money and includes the action of several Asian baseball betting cartels who literally wager millions every day. The majority of the Asian syndicates bet within seconds of the open, taking positions on teams they believe are standout plays offering real value.
Here are the six games that attracted big early money.
--Philadelphia (-175) attracted 79% of the early betting money, while Atlanta was at 21%
--Pittsburgh (-130) attracted 69% of the money for its game with the Chicago Cubs (31%).
--St. Louis (-180) had 83% of the action for its game with Arizona (17%).
--San Diego (+100) attracted 80% of the money, despite being an underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers (20%).
--San Francisco (-160) had 80% of the early action against the New York Mets (20%)
--Cleveland (-150) had 75% of the money in in its game with Toronto (25%).
Just a reminder that this is early money and the information it reveals may trend another direction.
The impact of early money was illustrated in Saturday night's Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels game. One of my lead headlines on yesterday's column stated that while Seattle was a -108 favorite, 84% of the early wiseguy money was on the Angels. L.A. went off as the -105 favorite and won 9-3 with the final figures showing the Angels getting 54% of the money to 46%.
The importance of this game was there for all to see. The early money from wiseguys and Asian bettors offers mere mortals an advance peek as to where the smartest money in the world has landed—something worth its weight in gold.
NFL FOOTBALL WILL BEGIN ON TIME
AND PLAY A REGULAR 16-GAME SCHEDULE
Sign Up For Football, Get Baseball Free
There may be a lot of back-and-forth between NFL owners and the players' union over the current lockout and a new contract but it means little. I have been assured by NFL insiders there will be a full 16-game season, and that it will begin on time.
You can sign up for the college and National Football League season right now for $199, and get free Best Bet Club baseball selections every day until the season begins. The Best Bets Club Package, which also includes four 100-unit game of the year plays, plus my 200-unit college and NFL games of the year, will later sell for $349. Sign up now on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 and start winning in baseball today. All major credit cards are accepted. Best Bets Football Club membership at this early-bird price of $199 is the bargain of the year. Keep in mind, the baseball you receive in this package is worth $199.
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