Favorites Go 1-7 ATS In Opening NBA Playoff Games
Favorites Go 1-7 ATS In Opening NBA Playoff Games And Signal Dramatic Changing Of The Guard
50-Unit NBA Underdog Play Wins As Memphis Gets Money SU 101-98 In Opener Against Spurs
By Kelso Sturgeon
NBA bettors received a dramatic message in the eight opening-round playoff games that saw three favorites lose straight up and witnessed underdogs covering the number in seven of the eight games. While some will insist favorites going 1-7 against the spread was just one of those things, the figures suggest many things, including the reality it was the beginning of the end for the once dominate Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs-the two teams who have won nine of the past NBA championships.
After a grueling 82-game regular season schedule, at least one playoff edge belongs to younger teams such as the Chicago Bulls, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Memphis Grizzlies, the New York Knicks, the Chicago Bulls and even the Indiana Pacers. That makes them a safer betting proposition that older teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat.
It is one thing to win the game and quite another to cover the number.
There are two factors already in play in the 2010-11 NBA playoffs-the age factor, which is hidden from public view, and the fact bookmakers are so afraid of action on the better teams they are offering them at ridiculous prices, hoping the public will still lay the big wood.
Obviously, at least for the time being, this does give underdogs an edge in the world of 11-to-10. This is not to suggest every underdog is a play but merely to point out one must give the 'dogs an extra look.
From the standpoint of age, the Miami Heat is the oldest team in the NBA, and thus in the playoffs, with an average age of 31.32, followed by the Los Angeles Lakers (29.98), the Boston Celtics (29.98), and the Denver Nuggets (29.09). The Memphis Grizzlies are the youngest team in the NBA, with an average age of 24.7, followed by Oklahoma City (24.95), the New York Knicks (25.0), the Indiana Pacers (25.83) and the Philadelphia 76ers (26.44).
The team on which I have bet my money to win it all-the Chicago Bulls-fall in the middle with an average age of 27.81.
Make of it what you will, but my figures say age will be a factor in which teams cover the number and that the deeper we go into the playoffs, the more important it will be.
GRIZZLIES WIN AS 50-UNIT UNDERDOG
The Memphis Grizzlies (+6 ½) got the cash for us yesterday when, as a 50-unit underdog play, beat the San Antonio Spurs straight up, 101-98. That put a little salve on the wound suffered on Saturday when I lost a 100-unit play on the Portland Trail Blazers (+5) in their 89-81 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks.
After the first opening round games, here is food for thought-things that might help you pick a winner this week.
- The Atlanta Hawks went into the playoffs riding a six-game losing streak and as 8-point underdogs immediately knocked off the Orlando Magic, 103-93. I have a long history of making an automatic play on any favorite that lost straight up in the first round but the 8½ I will have to lay to do that Tuesday night has me second-guessing myself.
- The Los Angeles Lakers(-10) who lost 109-100 to the New Orleans Hornets in their opening game are now 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. There is a reason I said in my last column the Lakers, the 9-4 favorites to win the championship for the third straight season, where the most over-rated and over-hyped team in playoff history.
- There will be one serious grudge match in Wednesday night's playoff games when the Denver Nuggets take the floor in Oklahoma City against the Thunder. Oklahoma City won the first game, 107-104, as a 6-point favorite and Denver coach George Karl and his players say they were robbed. With 1:05 to play Denver was leading by a single point when Oklahoma City center Kendrick Perkins committed an offensive goal tend that was not called. That basket put the Thunder up by two when there should been goal tending, no goal and with the ball going to Denver. It didn't happen and the Nuggets are furious.
The NBA Betting Menu
I am judiciously picking my spots in the NBA playoff this week. I am releasing both Monday night games-Philadelphia at Miami and Indiana at Chicago-as 10-unit plays. At this writing, I intend to release all three of the Tuesday night games, with the top-rated play being either 15, 20 or 25 units, depending on a later report.
Tonight's plays are available on this site or toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
My next 50-unit play is scheduled for Thursday night when three games will be played-Chicago at Indiana, Miami at Philadelphia and Dallas at Portland.
You can still get on board for my entire NBA package for just $225 and get all my plays, big and small, right through the championship round in early June.
Going For 4th Straight Baseball Parlay
My Best Bets Club is having an outstanding season and tonight goes for its 4th straight winning 2-team parlay. Again, it will be five units on each winner and five units on the parlay. You can get this standout play for just $15, charged to your major credit card. It is available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
Your best bet would be to get on board for the entire baseball season for just $179 and play right through the World Series in October.Get on board today and win today.
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