Super Bowl Betting Line Starting To Move And That Means Bookmakers Are Becoming Gamblers
Super Bowl Betting Line Starting To Move And That Means Bookmakers Are Becoming Gamblers
My Figures Say This Game Will Be Decided By One Single Factor - And I Know What It Is
For The Record...
I Am 8-2 With My Last 10 Super Bowl Plays
I am A perfect 10-0 With My Last 10 Super Bowl Totals
Last Year It Was
100 Units: New Orleans Saints (+5) 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 (W)
25 Units: Under 57 (W)
100-Units On The Winner...25 Units on the Total
And Today I Am Giving You 5 Free Prop Plays
By Kelso Sturgeon
My Super Bowl history is made up of winning and memories, and I head into XLV this Sunday having seen every single game since it was first played in Los Angeles in 1967. I also head into this championship battle between the favored Green Bay Packers and the underdog Pittsburgh Steelers with an outstanding current record in this game, standing 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games and a perfect 10-0 with totals.
As you can see from my record listed below, it has been a run of using underdogs and favorites and overs and unders. Whatever my figures said, I stuck with them and one can see by the 18-2 record, it worked. Last season it was a winning 100-unit play on the underdog New Orleans Saints and a winning 25-unit play on the under.
This Sunday I will be release the Super Bowl in exactly the same way (if it ain't broke, don't fix it) with a 100-unit play on the side, a 25 unit play on the total and five proposition bets (all at good prices). You can get this entire package for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, get on board for my Super Bowl Party Package that also includes big game basketball single day, with the highlight being another winning 100-unit College Blowout Game of the Year on Saturday.
I have been studying the Super Bowl for several hours each day for the past 10 days and already know what I am going to do. My figures, always reliable and winning at a high percentage, say this game will be decided by one single factor, which I will reveal when I release the game Sunday.
My Record In The Last 10 Super Bowls
2010 Super Bowl: 2-0
New Orleans Saints (+5) 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 (W)
Under 57 (W)
Never Any Doubt In My Mind The Saints Would Win
2009 Super Bowl: 2-0
Arizona Cardinals (+7) 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 27 (W)
Over 46 (W)
Cardinals Should Have Won Straight Up
2008 Super Bowl: 2-0
New York Giants (+12) 17, New England Patriots 14 (W)
Under 55 (W)
Giants Had Perfect Defense To Stop Patriots
2007 Super Bowl - 1-1
Chicago Bears (+7) 17, Indianapolis Colts 29 (L)
Under 47½ Points (W)
Got Beat On The Straight - No Complaints
2006 Super Bowl: 1-1
Seattle Seahawks (+4) 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 21 (L)
Under 46½ Points (W)
Was Absolutely Robbed By Bad Officiating
2005 Super Bowl: 2-0
Philadelphia Eagles (+7) 21, New England Patriots 24 (W)
Under 47 Points (W)
Knew I Had Right Side From Get-Go
2004 Super Bowl: 2-0
Carolina Panthers (+7) 29, New England Patriots 32 (W)
Over 37 Points (W)
Panthers Most Under-Valued Team In Past 20 Years
2003 Super Bowl: 2-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 ½) 48, Oakland 21 (W)
Over 44 Points (W)
Raiders Most Over-Rated Team In Past 20 Years
2002 Super Bowl: 2-0
New England Patriots (+14) 20, St. Louis Rams 17 (W)
Under 53 Points (W)
Number Made 'Dog Only Play One Could Make
2001 Super Bowl: 2-0
Baltimore Ravens (-3) 34, New York Giants 7 (W)
Over 33 (W)
Didn't Think Giants Could Score A Single Point
Five Solid Proposition Bets For This Year's Big Game
My Super Bowl study has also included a look at more than 300 proposition bets being offered on the game and I would like to share five of them - free - right here. They are listed in no particular order of importance.
- Total number of different players to have passing attempt
Over 2 ½ +210
- Pittsburgh's tight end Heath Miller to score at least one touchdown
- Green Bay Packers' running back James Starks to score at least one touchdown
- Will there be an overtime
- Shortest field goal to be made by either team
Under 25 ½ yards -125
These are five solid Super Bowl props and four of the five have at least a 70% chance of happening. I could not calculate the actual odds on the overtime play.
Super Bowl Lines Moving, Confusing
It goes without saying the monitoring of betting lines gets my divided attention because, as I have said many times, the betting line reflects the collective opinion of thousands of bettors-a fact that should never be overlooked.
With that said, there are some strange things going on behind the counter and I can only assume bookmakers, who usually sit tight, especially around key numbers, have decided they will gamble on this Super Bowl to attract bettors.
For openers, the majority of bookmakers think Sunday's Super Bowl Game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) and the Green Bay Packers (13-6) is a dead-even affair and, if they had their way, would offer the game to the public as a pick'em affair. Always keep mind when handicapping any game, there is a bookmakers' line and a public line. The one you see is the latters.
The betting line on the Super Bowl opened at three of the biggest books in the world at different prices. At one the game opened at pick-10, at another with Green Bay -1 and at another with the Packers -3. Right now the majority of books have Green Bay at -2 ½ but that is not standard across the board.
I monitor the lines of 35 books from around the world and here are some alternative numbers I am seeing:
- Some bookmakers are now offering the game at Green Bay -3 +10.
- Some bookmakers are now offering the game at Green Bay -2 ½ -25
- Some books are now offering the game at Green Bay -2 -27.
Just in case you have not been versed in numbers, what the bookmakers, in order, are saying is that if you want Green Bay -3+10 you can take the Packers and lay even money. At the 2 ½-25, you will have to lay $125 to win $100, while at the -2-27, you will have to lay $127 to win $100.
As most of you know I am 8-2 with my last 10 Super Bowl plays and a perfect 9-0 with my last nine totals. This year-just as I did with winning last year with underdog New Orleans and the under-I will be releasing the game at the 100-unit level, with a 25-unit play on the total, and with five proposition plays. You can get it all for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
The big game will be available on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
Thursday, Feb. 3
50 Unit West Coast Game of the Year
Plus Bonus Plays
Georgia Tech at Miami (ESPN2)
Notre Dame at DePaul (ESPN)
Friday, Feb. 4
50 Unit NBA Game of the Week
Saturday, Feb. 5
100 Units: College Game of the Week
50 Units: Saturday Night Special
Sunday, Feb. 6
Super Bowl Bankroll Builders
25-Unit Big Ten Prime Time Parlay
10 Units: Michigan State at Wisconsin
10 Units: Ohio State at Minnesota
5 Units: Parlay Of Both Winners
Super Bowl XLV
100 Units on Side
25 Units on Total
Plus 5 proposition bets
CLICK HERE if you would just like to join the party and cash in on all the basketball PLUS the Super Bowl...you can do so for $125.
And the Super Bowl by itself--side, total and 5 proposition bets--can be purchased by itself for $50.
You can also start winning today by signing up for my Best Bets Basketball Club, which will give you all the items listed above.
Kelso's College Basketball Top 25
Legend: SU-Straight Up. ATS-Against The Spread
|1.||Kansas||21-1||10-10||Best yet come|
|2.||Duke||20-2||11-10||Two losses meaningless|
|3.||San Diego State||22-1||13-8||Might be best of all|
|4.||Texas||19-3||14-3||Beginning to look awesome|
|6.||Ohio State||23-0||10-9||Undefeated but not the best|
|7.||BYU||21-2||8-11||No doubt in my mind|
|8.||Georgetown||17-5||14-7||Finally woke up|
|9.||Purdue||18-5||12-7||The real sleeper|
|10.||Connecticut||17-4||10-5||Talent to make Final Four|
|11.||North Carolina||16-5||9-9||Reaching its potential|
|12.||Kentucky||16-5||9-7||Comes to play|
|13.||Texas A&M||17-3||7-4||Comes to play every night|
|14.||Georgia||15-6||8-9||Better than record|
|15.||Washington||15-5||11-7||Another giant sleeper|
|16.||Villanova||18-4||12-7||Talent to beat anybody|
|17.||Arizona||18-4||12-8||Just reaching peak|
|18.||Notre Dame||17-4||10-7||Might be better than this|
|19.||Wichita State||19-4||11-7||A Giant Killer|
|20.||Wisconsin||16-5||11-6||Talented, well coached|
|21.||Syracuse||19-4||8-13||Back on track|
|22.||Louisville||17-5||11-7||Showing signs of life|
|23.||Missouri||17-4||8-9||Talent to beat anybody|
|24.||Cleveland State||20-3||11-6||Hard to ignore|
|25.||Utah State||21-2||11-10||Might be better than this|
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