Super Bowl Countdown
$1,000,000 Bet On Packers Opens Up Super Bowl Action While Steelers Getting Their Share Of Six-Figure Wagers
Vegas Hilton Offers 300 Prop Bets, Gets $150,000 In Action From One Single Bettor
By Kelso Sturgeon
Some say Super Bowl XLV is the most challenging Super Bowl ever for bettors but please don't try tell that to the guy who last week walked up to the counter at the MGM sports book in Las Vegas and plunked down $1,100,000 to win $1,000,000 on the Green Bay Packers (-2 ½) to get it done Sunday against the underdog Pittsburgh Steelers.
That most certainly was the heavy-duty one-sided opinion of one man who saw simplicity in laying the 11-10 at the price. It obviously was not much of a challenge for him. One must also factor into news sports books throughout Nevada also took several six-figure bets on the Steelers.
Confidence abounds on the chances of both teams to win the big one.
For those who think all proposition bets are there for the suckers, when the Las Vegas Hilton-the proposition kingdom of the world-came out with its 300 different bets on the game, bettors lined up 50 deep for two hours to get down at what they thought for the best numbers
For suckers only
You were required to bet a minimum of $1,000 to even get a place in that line and it was reported one very sophisticated gambler bet a total of $150,000 on the props of his choosing-and that is quite a move when one could only wager a maximum of $2,000 on any single prop.
That was no betting line for amateurs and reinforced what I believe that all forms of sports wagering, including proposition betting, have their place in the spectrum. Props just require one dig a little deeper, study a little harder and bet at the right price.
Super Bowl XLV
Steelers (14-4) vs. Packers (13-6)
Played At Cowboys Stadium
Kicks Off At 6:25 Eastern
Televised Nationally On Fox
8-2 On Sides, 9-1 On Totals Last 10 Years
I got the money with both the side and the total in last year's Super Bowl with underdog New Orleans (++5 ½) in its 31-17 upset win over the Indianapolis Colts, and "under" 57. Those wins left me 8-2 in the last 10 Super Bowls and gave me a 9-1 winning record in totals in that time frame.
When I first looked at this year's Super Bowl, I had the opinion it merited 50 units of action-20 units on the side, 20 units on the total and a 10-unit side/total parlay. But when I started doing my digging and figures said I should do just as I did last season-100 units on the side and 25 units on the total-and that is exactly what I am going to do.
Handicapping a Super Bowl is very much the same as handicapping a Chicago Bears-Minnesota Vikings game during the regular season-yet so different.
What does it mean that Pittsburgh has been to seven Super Bowls and won six of them, with the last one coming two years ago as the Steelers beat the Arizona Cardinals, 27-23, as a 7-point favorite, and the one before that coming three years earlier in a 21-10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks as 4-point favorites in a game was called by the officials in such a bizarre one-sided manner many wondered if the fix was in?
I am not a member of the conspiracy community but I still wonder about that game to this day. Yes, I had Seattle and, if not for the terrible calls against the Seahawks, would have easily won straight up.
Green Bay is 3-1 in four Super Bowl games, beating the New England Patriots,35-21, as a 14-point favorite and then losing the following year to the underdog Denver Broncos and John Elway, 31-24, as an 11-point favorite. Its other two wins came in the Vince Lombardi era in the first two Super Bowls played-in 1967 and 1968, and, yes, I saw both of them. In fact I have seen every single Super Bowl.
Real Super Bowl Handicapping
My success in handicapping and winning Super Bowl games, including totals, has everything to do with putting in the time to find the small edges that collectively will get the pointspread win, along with the total. Even is in a game that appears difficult to handicap-such as this one does-the edges are there and in the world of half-points and points they make winners.
I have put the same effort into winning Sunday's game as I did in getting the money last year. I am reprinting here what I told my clients when I released last year's game. Read it and I believe you will get a good lesson in handicapping.
And, then, I am going to tell you about the great five-day Super Bowl Package I have put together for you.
2010 Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints (15-3) +5.5 over Indianapolis Colts (16-2)
Prediction: New Orleans by 3-4
Final Score: New Orleans Saints 31, Indianapolis Colts 17 Winner
Comments: I have spent more hours handicapping this Super Bowl than any in recent memory and I cannot escape from one simple but powerful fact: One can make a case for both these teams to win straight up-forget about the pointspread. New Orleans has a great quarterback in Drew Brees. Indianapolis has a great quarterback in Peyton Manning. New Orleans and Indianapolis have the best two offensive lines in the NFL. Both teams have accomplished running backs who also serve as excellent pass receivers out of the backfield. Indianapolis has a slight edge on defense but that may be compromised with the possible absence of the best defensive end in the NFL-Dwight Freeney who has been unable to practice because of an extremely painful ankle injury. Even if Freeney plays, one has to wonder how effective he will be. There are even ongoing discussions of moving him from the right side to the left side so he can drive off his good ankle. The importance of a healthy Freeney is right there in the numbers. He gets double-teamed on almost every play and that means the opponents are playing 10-of-11-and that causes an offense big problems. I could write a book on why one should take the Colts and lay the 5.5 and another on why one should take the Saints +5.5-and I promise you I could make a believer of you with either argument. This game is absolutely dead-even and New Orleans has just as much of a chance to win it as do the Colts. There is no choice for me but to take the points.
New Orleans Saints-Indianapolis Colts Under 57
Prediction: 52 or less points to be scored.
48 Points Scored Winner
Giant Super Bowl Package
I am releasing the Super Bowl in two different ways this season. You can certainly purchase the side and total, plus get five proposition plays, for just $50, charged to your major credit card or better yet, you can get on board for the five-day package that includes the following big-game basketball plays, for just $125, also charged to your credit card. Sign up for either package right here online, or toll free at my office, 1-800-755-2255.
Kelso's Super Bowl Party Menu
Wednesday, Feb. 2
Syracuse at Connecticut (ESPN)
Both Teams In Bounce-Back Mode
And I Have The Winner
Plus Bonus Plays
Duke at Maryland (ESPN)
USC at UCLA (FSN)
Thursday, Feb. 3
West Coast Game of the Year
The King Of West Coast Basketball
Plus Bonus Plays
Georgia Tech at Miami (ESPN2)
Notre Dame at DePaul (ESPN)
Friday, Feb. 4
NBA Game of the Week
Grades Out As 15-Point Winner
Saturday, Feb. 5
College Game of the Week
I Got All The Money Last Saturday
With Another 100-Unit Blowout
San Diego State (-20 ½) 96, Wyoming 57
And I Intend To Do It Again
Saturday Night Special
Grades Out With 90% Chance To Cover
Sunday, Feb. 6
Super Bowl Bankroll Builders
25-Unit Big Ten Prime Time Parlay
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Ohio State at Minnesota
Parlay Of Both Winners
Super Bowl XLV
100 Units on Side
8-2 With My Last 10 Games
25 Units on Total
9-1 With The Last 10
Plus 5 proposition bets
Went 3-2 Last Year
Click Here To Sign Up Today And Win Today
Or Toll Free At 1-800-755-2255
--The Entire Package For Just $125-
--The Super Bowl Side/Total, Plus 5 Props For Just $50 Let's go get the money together.
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