Turkey Shoot Kicks Off Today!
200-Unit College Football Knockout Breaks Bank This Saturday.
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5-Day Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot Begins Thursday
With 50-Unit Texas Game Of Year.
Texas A.M. (8-3) at Texas (5-6)
Plus TV Best Three Outstanding NFL Best Bets
New England Patriots (8-2) at Detroit Lions (2-8)
New Orleans Saints (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-8) at New York Jets (8-2)
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By Kelso Sturgeon
Here we are, heading into another giant weekend of football and basketball and, as always, facing the reality of having more questions that answers. It all begins with this thing known as “rivalry” games—contests such as Thursday’s 50-Unit Texas Game of the Year that matches two schools—Texas A&M and Texas—that have quite a dislike for one another.
The A&M-Texas rivalry is so heated that fans of both teams get the urge to spit on the floor anytime someone mentions the other.
But are rivalry games really that—games that founded the statement, “when these teams meet you can throw the record book out the window”? The question is clear—the answer clearer. Is “rivalry” more than just a word? More on that in a moment.
Michigan and Ohio State have the biggest “rivalry” game in the Big Ten Conference but Ohio State is 6-0 straight up (SU), 4-1-1 against the Spread (ATS) in the last six meetings and the host Buckeyes are a 17-point favorite Saturday.
Florida is at Florida State in another giant “rivalry” game and Florida has won seven straight in this series. What part of that 7-0 makes this a rivalry game? Florida State is a 1 ½-point favorite this time around.
Oklahoma is at Oklahoma State for another perceived “rivalry” game and will be going for its eighth consecutive win over the Cowboys. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
There are dozens of games like these this weekend and it is legitimate to question whether they qualify for the word, “rivalry”.
The evidence indicates it mostly is just a word for bettors but something truly an annual emotional experience for fans of many schools.
Here are three things to keep in mind about so-called rivalry games.
1. Forget the old wives tale that says, “you can throw the book out the window in rivalry games”. The record says that simply is not so and that the talent level of each team—not the rivalry element—will determine the winner.
2. Study betting lines in these games and try to determine which ones are simply out of line with reality. I would suggest the Auburn at Alabama game—most certainly a rivalry game—is being presented with an inflated line. Alabama is a 4 ½-point favorite. What?
3. In rivalry games, bettors can add an extra or two edges on the betting line for the home teams in these games. History says home teams definitely play harder against traditional rivals.
Just remember that in handicapping rivalry games, the best team will more often than not
win the game. Cover? That’s another story.
* * * *
College Football Handicapping Hints
Akron hosts Buffalo and faces its last chance to win a game this season. The Zips are 0-11 this time around and are 3-23 in their last 26 games.
Alabama hosts undefeated Auburn in The Iron Bowl game in Tuscaloosa and is a surprising 4 ½-point favorite. The Tide has won the last two games, but Auburn stands 6-2 in the last eight.
Arkansas hosts LSU in Little Rock and it is of note the Razorbacks are 2-1 in the last three games and that those games have been decided by a total of a combined total of 6 points, or an average of just 2 points.
Auburn (11-0) can lose at Alabama Friday and still play in the SEC championship game next Saturday. The Tigers wrapped up that bid two games ago. What is at stake for Auburn is a chance to play for the BCS championship.
Boise State (10-) is at Nevada (10-1) Friday for one of the biggest games on the schedule. Boise is a 14-point favorite, down from 15 ½, and bettors should be aware of the scores of the last three games between this WAC powers. Boise State won them all by scores of 44-33, 41-34 and 69-67 or an average of 6.67 points.
California (5-6) can become bowl eligible with a home win over Washington Saturday. The Golden Bears opened as a 6-point favorite and were bet out to seven.
East Carolina, which hosts SMU Friday, may be 6-5 and bowl eligible but it is worth note the Pirates give up 43.3 points and 481.5 yards of offense per game. They have gone 1-2 in their last three games, averaging 45.7 points while giving up an average of 60.0.
Florida International can become bowl eligible with a home win over Arkansas State Saturday.
LA-Monroe can become bowl eligible with a home win over LA-Lafayette Saturday.
LSU (10-1), which has lost only at Auburn (24-17) this season, is very much alive for a bid to the BCS championship game but needs to win at Arkansas Saturday to keep that hope alive.
Louisville can become bowl eligible with a win at Rutgers Friday.
Nebraska, hosting Colorado Friday, needs to win to seal the deal to go to the Big 12 championship game.
N.C. State needs a win at Maryland Saturday to insure it gets to the ACC championship game.
Oregon (10-0) needs to win at home against Arizona Friday and at Oregon State the following weekend to make certain it plays for the BCS championship.
TCU, another team alive for a bid to the BCS championship game, needs to win at New Mexico Saturday to close out the season 12-0. The Horned Frogs are the prohibitive 43 ½-point favorite to do just that.
Tennessee becomes bowl eligible with a home win over Kentucky Saturday.
The 200-Unit Winner From Nowhere
Those of you who know me understand that I search night and day for a game—any game—that grades out with a 100% chance to win straight up and with at least a 95% chance to cover the number. When I find one, I never doubt my figures, my analysis or the conclusion I draw.
If it says “200 Units”, I send it in and for that reason literally rule the world of big game handicapping. I understand most games of this nature are seldom obvious and surface only have a long period of handicapping analysis. That is why I handicap every single game on the card, trolling for hidden value.
I am pleased to report that mid-week I uncovered one of these games and I am releasing it Saturday as a rare 200-Unit College Football Knockout Play. The team I am using is a favorite and the figures say it will absolutely crush the number by four or five touchdowns.
This is a game in which you can peel off the Ben Franklins and fire with the confidence you have a 100% chance to win straight up and a 95% chance to cover the number. In the world of football betting, it gets no better than this.
This 200-unit play will be available on this website beginning at 2:00 A.M. Eastern Time Saturday and at 9:00 A.M. Eastern Time at my office, toll free at 1-800-755-2255. It’s priced at a modest $50 and I do accept all major credit cards.
Break The Bank With My 5-Day
Big Game Turkey Shoot
It All Begins Thursday Thanksgiving Day
The Complete Turkey Shoot Menu
Thursday, Nov. 25
Go 3-0 In NFL
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (CBS)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (FOX)
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (NFL)
Texas Game Of The Year
I Have Won This One Five Of Last Six Years
Texas A&M at Texas (ESPN)
Friday, Nov. 26
Go 3-0 With Three 25-Unit
Giant Season-Breaking Or Making Plays
All On National TV
Auburn at Alabama (CBS)
Arizona at Oregon (ESPN)
Boise State at Nevada (ESPN2)
All six teams bring in it every game and take no prisoners
Saturday, Nov. 27
It’s Another 75-Unit
Break The Bank Play
With Three 25-Unit Plays
On Three Nationally Televised Marquee Games
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (ABC)
Florida at Florida State (ESPN)
Notre Dame at USC (ABC)
Sunday, Nov. 28
NFL 2-Team Parlay Of The Year
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I Have released this parlay just five times in the past eight seasons
and have won it four times.
Monday, Nov. 29
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
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